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What are Oklahoma State softball's best- & worst-case scenarios for 2024 NCAA Tournament?

scott wright, the oklahoman
·3 min read

STILLWATER — Oklahoma State softball coach Kenny Gajewski likes to separate the softball calendar into three sections.

Welcome to Season 3.

The non-conference portion of the schedule is Season 1, with Big 12 play accounting for Season 2.

Now, the postseason is here, so let’s take a look at some of the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Cowgirls, who are the No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament and open play in the Stillwater Regional against Northern Colorado at 4:30 p.m. Friday at Cowgirl Stadium:

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Oklahoma State's Ivy Rosenberry (41) pitches during a Big 12 softball game against BYU on May 9 at Devon Park.
Oklahoma State's Ivy Rosenberry (41) pitches during a Big 12 softball game against BYU on May 9 at Devon Park.

Best-case scenario for regionals

Get the taste of two straight losses out of their mouths, and play good defense. The latter will be the most important from the perspective of confidence. After committing five errors in the Big 12 Tournament loss to BYU, the Cowgirls could use some positive feelings in the field. They were a top-10 defense all season in terms of fielding percentage, but dropped to 22nd after the BYU game.

Worst-case scenario for regionals

Inconsistent hitting. That’s been the one issue that has haunted the Cowgirl offense. Relying on several young hitters, OSU will have moments where the bats go silent. That puts added pressure on the pitching staff and has led to unexpected losses at times this season. And with established programs like Kentucky and Michigan in the Stillwater Regional, a couple bad days with the bats could sink the Cowgirls.

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Best-case scenario for super regionals

It starts with an easy run through the regional, so as not to tax the arms of the pitching staff too much — in particular, Ivy Rosenberry, who has been dealing with a rib injury that causes significant pain when she throws. Beyond that, an upset in the Fayetteville Regional could help the Cowgirls. Or at the very least, perhaps a program like Arizona pushes 12th-seeded Arkansas to the brink and forces an extra game or two. But the true best scenario for OSU would be for Villanova to reel off some upsets and take the Fayetteville Regional.

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Oklahoma State's Jilyen Poullard (27) celebrates a walk in the seventh inning during the Bedlam college softball game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners and the Oklahoma State University Cowgirls at Love's Field in Norman, Okla., Sunday, May, 5, 2024.
Oklahoma State's Jilyen Poullard (27) celebrates a walk in the seventh inning during the Bedlam college softball game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners and the Oklahoma State University Cowgirls at Love's Field in Norman, Okla., Sunday, May, 5, 2024.

Worst-case scenario for super regionals

Either Arkansas or Arizona get hot. Both are battle-tested this season and if they come into Stillwater ablaze, they could end the Cowgirls’ season prematurely. OSU doesn’t have the wealth of big-game experience it did over the last couple years, so it’s unclear how this team will react in a do-or-die situation.

Best-case scenario for WCWS

The team from the first two Bedlam games — sharp pitching, clean fielding, potent hitting — shows up for the week at Devon Park. That version of the Cowgirls can take down anybody you put in front of them. The bracket and the matchups won’t matter. They can carve their way to the championship series for the first time in program history, and give themselves a shot at winning the whole thing.

Worst-case scenario for WCWS

We’ve seen the OSU defense get shaky in OKC before, so that has to be a concern. But this team’s downfall seems more likely to be its offensive inconsistency. One bad game with the bats can put you in a dire situation, and smash a team’s WCWS dreams by the second day of the tournament.

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Stillwater Regional schedule

Double elimination from Friday-Sunday (May 17-19) at Cowgirl Stadium in Stillwater:

Friday's games

  • Game 1: Michigan vs. Kentucky, 2 p.m. CT (ESPN2)

  • Game 2: No. 5 Oklahoma State vs. Northern Colorado, 4:30 p.m. (ESPN+)

Saturday's games

  • Game 3: Winner G1 vs. Winner G2, noon CT

  • Game 4: Loser G1 vs. Loser G2, 2:30 p.m. CT

  • Game 5: Winner G4 vs. Loser G3, 5 p.m. CT

Sunday's games

  • Game 6: Winner G3 vs. Winner G5, TBD

  • Game 7: Winner G6 vs. Loser G6, TBD, if necessary

*-if necessary

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Oklahoma State softball best-, worst-case scenarios of 2024 postseason