Notre Dame football: ESPN FPI projects Irish odds vs. Duke, of 11-1 season
undefinedLosses don’t get much more difficult than they way Notre Dame suffered their first of 2023 last weekend against Ohio State. Everything was going right – until it didn’t – and the biggest program win in years suddenly turned into a loss.
So how will Notre Dame respond over their final seven games of 2023?
In a year that appears to be wide open, you’d think an 11-1 Notre Dame squad could make a very compelling case for the College Football Playoff.
Before we get to that though, Notre Dame has to beat Duke in what should be a lively environment Saturday night.
ESPN updated their Football Power Index numbers this week and updated Notre Dame’s chances at victory in each of their remaining games.
Here is what FPI says for the Irish chances the rest of the way.
Sept. 30 at Duke
Current FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 69.4%
Odds a week ago: 71.8%
Oct. 7 at Louisville
Current FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 70.9%
Odds a week ago: 75.3%
Oct. 14 vs. USC
Current FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 59.9%
Odds a week ago: 52.3%
Oct. 28 vs. Pitt
Current FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 91.4%
Odds a week ago: 89.6%
Nov. 4 at Clemson
Current FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 60.2%
Odds a week ago: 57.7%
Nov. 18 vs. Wake Forest
Current FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 94.6%
Odds a week ago: 92.9%
Nov. 25 at Stanford
Current FPI odds of Notre Dame victory: 94.8%
Odds a week ago: 94.9%
FPI Team Ranking
Despite falling to Ohio State in the final seconds, FPI was kind to Notre Dame this week. The Irish climbed from No. 12 nationally to No. 11 now.
Odds of 11-1 finish?
As you saw above, FPI favors Notre Dame in each of their remaining matchups. Some are projected to be easy wins while others are more difficult.
Add it all together and FPI gives Notre Dame a 15.8% chance of running the table and finishing the regular season 11-1.
Playoff Chances?
Despite having a loss on their home field, does Notre Dame have a chance to still make the College Football Playoff? Obviously, a ton of football remains to be played but the loss to Ohio State stings badly. FPI gives Notre Dame just a 5% chance to make the CFP this week after it was 13.3% a week ago.
