Not to be pessimistic, but the numbers say Rays are not bouncing back
ST. PETERSBURG — Taylor Walls got you, didn’t he?
When the Rays shortstop went up the middle to rob a base hit and turn a spectacular double play to end a 3-2 win against the Cubs on Thursday night, it was as if the world inside of Tropicana Field had finally been set right-side up.
Closer Pete Fairbanks shouted “Let’s go!” in appreciation. First baseman Isaac Paredes pumped his fist after completing the play. The crowd rose to its feet as the stadium lights dimmed.
For a moment, it felt like this could be the beginning of Tampa Bay’s return to prominence.
Except the odds are against it. Like seriously against it.
Sorry if that sounds utterly pessimistic this morning, but one way to predict the future is by studying the past. And the past strongly suggests the Rays are not in a position to make a playoff run.
It’s not that they went into the weekend a handful of games under .500 or four games out of the final wild-card spot. That’s not an insurmountable hurdle. The Mariners were 31-39 in 2022 and made the playoffs. The Athletics were 10 games out of the wild-card race at this point in 2018 and still earned a postseason spot.
The issue is not where the Rays are today, but how they got here.
Entering the weekend, Tampa Bay had been outscored 335-269 this season. That 66-run differential means they’re rubbing shoulders with the Angels (minus-70) and Athletics (minus-87) as opposed to the Yankees (plus-134) and Orioles (plus-105).
In the wild-card era, which goes back nearly 30 years, it’s hard to find any team that has survived such a negative run differential at this point in the season and went on to play in October.
Run differential is not a guaranteed forecast of what’s to come, but it’s a generally reliable indicator of a team’s strength. And what it says about the Rays is they’re lucky to still be in contention in mid-June.
Can the Rays overcome that? Sure, there are some unique circumstances that have haunted them over the first 70 games of the year. They had an unfortunate run of injuries (Walls, Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe, Jonathan Aranda, Taj Bradley) on top of all the pitchers (Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, Shane Baz) who are still recovering from surgeries in 2023.
They also have had some inexplicable slumps (Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz, Jose Siri, Harold Ramirez) that have left them near the bottom of the league in runs scored.
So, yes, they should be a better team in the second half than the first half.
But will that be enough?
If you’re looking for positive reinforcement, you could check out the 2023 Marlins. Their run differential wasn’t quite as severe as Tampa Bay’s at this point, but they were in minus territory for nearly the entire year and still earned a wild card.
The Marlins survived by posting an exceptional record in one-run games. Miami was 33-14 (.702), which was, by far, the best winning percentage in one-run games in MLB. The Rays are on a similar pace at 13-5 (.722), which is the only reason they’re not currently buried in the American League East.
And maybe the Rays can maintain that pace in close games. With their roster getting healthy, they can play their preferred brand of matchup baseball with pinch hitters and defensive versatility late in games but it’s still asking a lot to win 70% of your close games.
I bring this up not to dump on the Rays, but to prepare you for what is likely ahead.
The Rays may find themselves on the periphery of contention when the trade deadline approaches at the end of July, but it’s hard to imagine they will trade prospects in return for a pennant race rental. Even if they could bounce back and make the playoffs for a sixth consecutive season, this group does not appear capable of making a deep postseason run.
(The Marlins, in fact, were swept by the Phillies in the wild-card round last season while being outscored 11-2.)
If anything, I would assume the Rays would entertain offers for Zach Eflin, B-Lowe and Diaz in order to gather depth and lower their payroll obligations for 2025 when they should start the season at full strength.
Having said that, there’s no reason for the Rays to wave a white flag today. They still have six weeks before the trade deadline to figure out what this team is capable of doing, and maybe they’ll put together a hot streak and convince the front office the best is yet to come.
It’s not completely out of the realm of possibility.
Just don’t count on it.
John Romano can be reached at jromano@tampabay.com. Follow @romano_tbtimes.
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