Non-tender candidates the Blue Jays should explore
At Friday’s 8 p.m. ET deadline, the MLB free agent pool will expand as teams reach the deadline to non-tender arbitration-eligible players.
More often that not players going to arbitration are still a bargain, but there are situations when past achievements don’t mirror present performance and price tags fall out of line with value. When this happens, they get hit with a non-tender and are available for anyone to sign.
Just because a player’s projected cost exceeds his worth on the field doesn’t mean that he can’t be useful at a different salary.
The Toronto Blue Jays have a perfect example of this on their own roster. Tom Koehler is projected to earn $6 million in arbitration on the strength of a number of successful years as a back-end starter. Nowadays, though, he’s more of a bullpen piece or swingman, and that $6 million feels a bit steep. As a result, the Blue Jays are likely to cut him loose. Even so, he’ll find a landing spot elsewhere (or back with Toronto) because he’s still an MLB-calibre player.
A number of players like Koehler will shake free on Friday who might be of interest to the Blue Jays. Here are a couple of possible targets:
Drew Smyly
Age: 28
Throws: Left
Arsenal: Four-seam Fastball, Curveball, Cutter, Changeup
Fastball Velocity: 90.2 mph
2017 stats: DNP (underwent Tommy John Surgery on June 28)
How it works: His projected salary of $6.85 million is an awful lot to pay for what will likely be half a season of Smyly, so it makes sense for the Seattle Mariners to let him go. That said, at a more reasonable price he’s an interesting lottery ticket for the stretch run who can either help as a back-end starter, a multi-inning reliever, or a lefty specialist.
There’s also a decent chance he’d be able to do none of these things if his rehab hits a snag or he can’t regain his command quickly. Even so, he makes for an interesting gamble on an incentive-heavy deal.
Steven Vogt
Age: 33
Position(s): Catcher and First Base
Hits: Right
Throws: Right
2017 stats: .233/.285/.423, 12 HR, 40 RBI, -0.5 WAR in 303 PA
How it works: Vogt is coming of a poor season by almost every measure, but he’s got a history as a guy who can get on base and put a couple over the wall. He’s a good candidate to bounce back this year and provide above-average offence for a backup catcher.
Teams tend to prefer a glove-first second backstop, but considering the offensive horror show the Blue Jays experienced from that spot last year perhaps they’d be willing to go against the grain. While his projected salary of $3.9 million isn’t a tonne in this climate, it’s more than the Brewers will want to spend considering they plan to start Manny Pina and have Jett Bandy and Andrew Susac on the roster.
Justin Grimm
Age: 29
Throws: Right
Arsenal: Four-seam Fastball, Curveball
Fastball Velocity: 94.9 mph
2017 stats: 9.60 K/9, 4.39 BB/9, 1.95 HR/9, 5.53 ERA and 5.36 FIP in 55.1 IP
How it works: Grimm is interesting because he’s a power arm, but the results haven’t seemed to follow in the last two years. In 2015 he posted a 1.99 ERA (with a 3.11 FIP to be fair), but since then he’s pitched over 100 innings of 4.83 ball with matching peripherals.
A projected salary of $2.4 million isn’t particularly prohibitive, but a locked-in contender like the Cubs might not want to hand a spot in their bullpen to a guy who hasn’t been able to keep runs off the board for two consecutive seasons (and is coming off a particularly rough 2017). For a fringe contender like the Blue Jays, he might represent a more palatable option.
Sam Dyson
Age: 29
Throws: Right
Arsenal: Four-seam Fastball, Two-seam Fastball, Cutter, Changeup, Slider
Fastball Velocity: 95.1 mph
2017 stats: 5.60 K/9, 4.95 BB/9, 1.32 HR/9, 6.09 ERA and 5.63 FIP in 54.2 IP
How it works: Dyson’s projected arbitration salary ($4.6 million) reflects the fact he was a very effective late-inning reliever from 2014-2016, racking up 38 saves in the final year of that span. Last year, however, he was nowhere near that pitcher and he’s probably not someone the Giants want to sink too much money into.
Bringing in Dyson might seem unconscionable to Blue Jays fans who remember his antics and ineffectiveness during the 2015 ALDS, but he still throws hard and has a heavy sinker. He may seem like an unlikely fit in Toronto, but he’s the kind of guy that would be interesting at the right price.
Blake Wood
Age: 32
Throws: Right
Arsenal: Four-seam Fastball, Two-seam Fastball, Slider, Splitter
Fastball Velocity: 96.1 mph
2017 stats: 10.17 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 0.97 HR/9, 5.45 ERA and 3.67 FIP in 74.1 IP
How it works: The Angels would be foolish to part with the late-blooming Wood, who has a rubber arm, a varied repertoire, and plenty of gas. The reason he finds himself on the MLBTR non-tender candidates list is a bloated 2017 ERA that’s not reflective of his talent.
Wood is no star, but he’s an excellent seventh man in a bullpen with some multi-inning ability. Last year he added a splitter to his arsenal as well, which even gives him a little growth potential. If the Angels aren’t willing to pay a projected $2.2 million for that package, a team like the Blue Jays could swoop in and find themselves a bargain.
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