Nickel: Focus on process stats over results stats? In Shaka Smart's world, it makes sense
Shaka Smart’s Marquette Golden Eagles are dogged defenders - and the numbers are reflecting it.
They rank 28th in the nation in steals.
They are No. 1 in the Big East and No. 5 in the NCAA in turnover margin (plus-5.4).
They have forced 10-or-more turnovers (15.7 per game, 13th in nation) in 21-of-22 outings this season. MU has converted that to an average of 19.5 points on offense per game.
Marquette's 35 points off turnovers in their most recent win against Georgetown was especially impressive.
But there’s a bigger philosophy behind those pretty numbers that Smart has instilled in his players – and it completely changes the complexion of his defense. So the stats have to be re-examined.
“Mark Twain said there's lies, damned lies and statistics," said Smart.
Instead of statistics that are a result of the defense, Smart focuses on statistics that encourage a certain style of defensive play.
So, he wants 32 deflections from his defense per game.
That would be, on average, about one deflection for every other possession by the opponent. MU maintained the 32 goal on average last year – especially with MU’s best defender last season in Olivier-Maxence Prosper – and elected to stick with that goal this year rather than tweaking it up or down based on MU's personnel (now that Prosper is in the NBA).
"You know, I used to be an analytics nerd in my former life,” said Smart, referring to his assistant coaching days. “That was a number that - depending on pace of the game and the style of play - would put us in a pretty good position. So we've kept track of it ever since I've been a head coach at VCU, at Texas now here at Marquette.
“And I think we've lost maybe two or three games over the course of that time when we've had 32 deflections.
"And we've won close to 200.”
In 22 games this season, Marquette has averaged 31.5 deflections per game (694 total) and met its goal of 32 deflections in 8-of-17 victories.
The leaders in deflections: Oso Ighodaro (113), Tyler Kolek (108), Stevie Mitchell (103), David Joplin (76), Chase Ross (71) and Kam Jones (69).
Mitchell, Kolek, Jones, and Ross (returning this week from injury) rank among Big East leaders in steals (through Feb. 7).
“Focus on the process” is a phrase that buzzes about a lot in sports right now, but to Smart there’s a practical definition of that. When he focuses on the deflections, rather than the steals, it allows his players to become a defensive menace even without necessarily causing a turnover. It’s also a form of empowerment for every individual player in a team sport.
And Smart thinks it helps create cohesion in MU's defensive attack.
"A huge concept for us on defense is what we call 'appropriate help,'” said Smart. “Basically, if you're off the ball, we want you to help your teammate that's got the ball as much as you absolutely should. No more and no less.
“That is a very, very complex concept that young players have a hard time with, and, even some older players sometimes. Oso is probably the best at it. He just has a heck of a feel. And sometimes it is a real gamble.”
Smart used this example: Marquette traps the post a lot, sending two players down to the opponent who has the ball on the blocks. The risk is that the post player will find the open player on the perimeter, or driving, for a shot. This is a great chance for one of MU's trappers to play for a deflection.
“So we've got to be really, really aggressive and assertive,” said Smart. “And I'll tell you what's even more important - before quick hands and before aggressiveness and before for assertiveness - and that is connectivity. We have to be five guys connected around a common cause.”
So that means, of course, there’s a MU Deflection Champion … Belt. It’s tacky and perfect, WWE Championship style, and when Chase Ross wins it for the game, he likes to flaunt it by taking it with him for road games.
So while it takes good hands, anticipation, you see what Smart did here. He turned the extra incentive to play hard, and that attention, to a belt that means nothing to anyone else outside the MU locker room.
“We all have a little pride in trying to get the deflection belt,” said Ross. “So on the court, even though we're playing together, we're also trying to compete to get the deflection.
“I feel like all of our deflections combined has us where we're at nationally and in the Big East and then of course, you get bragging rights after the game.”
It might seem like playing for Smart requires at least a semester in the school’s Stats sciences curriculum. MU players have to think a lot when they practice and prepare.
But Smart sticks to the analytics he believes in, and does his best to make that distinction clear. There are stats that show the process of what they’re trying to do, like deflections, and then there are stats that show the results of those efforts, like steals and points off turnovers.
Focusing on the process stats puts the control back in to the player and his effort.
"I back off on more of the result-based statistics,” said Smart.
“... I know we've shot the ball well lately. But I'm more focused on: do we hit the guy on the chin with the pass? Are we shooting it the right way? Are we going to the glass when the shot goes up? Are we executing our screening actions to get the shot we want?
“With the players, it's important for them to understand that if you will just follow the appropriate process, don't worry that the last game you went 2 for 10. Don't worry that the last five threes didn't go in, just keep doing it the right way.”
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This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: With Shaka Smart it makes sense to focus on process over results stats
