NHL playoff watch: Most races still undecided as final week begins
The NHL regular season ends on Friday, but there's still plenty up for grabs in both conferences.
From spamming outdoor games until they no longer really feel special to putting garish and distracting digital ads on boards, the NHL’s no stranger to chasing shameless bucks. However, there are curious cases where they don’t turn over every couch cushion for extra change.
One can only speculate about the money squandered by the endless attempts to keep the Coyotes in Arizona. A more recent head-scratching aversion to making easy money revolves around Gary Bettman passing on the NHL’s answer to the NBA’s play-in tournament.
For nervous fans of the Panthers, Islanders, Penguins, Sabres, Jets, Predators and Flames, one might observe the remaining NHL playoff races and argue that mini-tournaments for each conference’s 7-to-10th-ranked teams would feel “more fair” than the current setup. Depending upon how things end, a team may miss the playoffs by a margin as thin and unsatisfying as a tiebreaker.
Why not take the money — and, heck, maybe even inflate hockey revenues enough to also boost the salary cap — instead?
Ultimately, it’s a debate for another day. Under the confines of the system that currently exists, there’s at least a silver lining: a lot can come down to the wire. Here's a look at where each playoff race currently stands.
(All standings are up to date heading into the games on April 10.)
Eastern Conference
Current wild-card race
📈 Florida Panthers (91 points, 80 games played, .569 points percentage): This streaky team is on fire.
Final games this week: vs. Maple Leafs, vs. Hurricanes
Things looked dire when the Panthers plunged to 36-31-7 amid a four-game losing streak on March 27. They haven’t lost a single game since then, winning six in a row, looking both dangerous and downright feisty. For all the ups and downs, this is a team rounding into form with a Hart Trophy finalist-caliber player in Matthew Tkachuk (108 points, boundless ability to annoy opponents).
The Panthers’ remaining two games are fascinating. On one hand, both the Maple Leafs and Hurricanes are high-level playoff teams. On the other hand, Toronto has little to play for, and Carolina must weigh the Metro title battle with trying to stay healthy. Those motivations are relevant because Florida can “control its own destiny” by winning those remaining games.
🟰 New York Islanders (91 points, 80 GP, .569%): Won both games last week but slipped to the second wild-card spot.
Final games this week: @ Capitals, vs. Canadiens
At times, the Islanders, Panthers and Penguins all feel like they’ve ignored the urgency of this three-team race for two East wild-card spots, losing to lesser teams and hitting deep funks. This home stretch has been the exception, as all three squads are turning this into a thrilling photo finish instead of three ailing horses limping to the end of the race. Some point to the Islanders as the biggest upset threat of the three because of all-world goalie Ilya Sorokin.
Up next, the Islanders face a team that would’ve been a bigger threat a few weeks ago (Capitals) and a team whose season has been a write-off for months (Canadiens). The Islanders would probably prefer to see the Panthers slip enough to hop a spot, but either way, they merely need to win those two games and they’re in.
📉 Pittsburgh Penguins (90 points, 80 GP, .563%): Winning out isn’t guaranteed to be enough.
Final games this week: vs. Chicago, at Blue Jackets.
Normally, pulling a Meatloaf and winning two out of three games wouldn’t be so bad, especially with a victory over the Wild and a loss to a strong Devils team. But that loss to New Jersey was brutal, especially since tiebreaker rules dictate the Penguins need to finish with more points than either the Islanders or Panthers. Something unusual could happen (two overtime losses?), but the most likely thing is for the Penguins to root for one of those two teams to lose in regulation.
At least the Penguins face two bad teams in tank mode.
🟰 Buffalo Sabres (85 points, 78 GP, .545%): Not mathematically eliminated, but would need a miracle or two.
Final games this week: @ Rangers, @ Devils, vs. Senators, @ Blue Jackets
Perhaps things will look rosier if they win those tough games against the Rangers and Devils. The Sabres don't stand much of a chance of making the playoffs, but they have been a fun story, if nothing else.
Race for Metropolitan Division's No. 1 seed
📉 Carolina Hurricanes (109 points, 79 GP, .690%, clinched playoffs): Stumbled enough that a division title isn’t a sure thing, but they still have the advantage.
Final games this week: @ Senators, vs. Red Wings, @ Panthers.
By losing to the Predators and Sabres, the Hurricanes failed to lock down the division title. Closing out with a desperate Panthers team and also facing two out-of-it-but-potentially-frisky opponents heightens the drama. The Hurricanes have an extra point and a game in hand on the Devils, so the odds are still very much on Carolina’s side.
📈 New Jersey Devils (108 points, 80 GP, .675%, clinched playoffs): Could’ve made things even more interesting if they upset the Bruins.
Final games this week: vs. Sabres, @ Capitals
Even if the Hurricanes win out and make the division race moot, the Devils have some incentive to hold off the Rangers for home-ice advantage in that series. They might as well win out and see where the chips fall.
📈 New York Rangers (106 points, 80 GP, .662%, clinched playoffs): Technically could jump even as high as two spots to the division title, but likely to begin playoffs on the road.
Final games this week: vs. Sabres, vs. Maple Leafs
They’ve played well enough lately to give them a shaky chance to leap over the Devils and a hilariously slim chance to win their division. Not bad, but they’re most likely to begin their playoff push in Newark (or Carolina).
Western Conference
Race for the Central Division's No. 1 seed
📈 Colorado Avalanche (104 points, 79 GP, .658%, clinched playoffs): Looking like legitimate threats to repeat as champs.
Final games this week: vs. Oilers, vs. Jets, @ Predators
Slice things up thin (five wins in a row) or zoom out more (14-2-0 in their last 16 games), and you’ll end up with the same conclusion: the Avalanche are on a steep and rapid upward climb closer to the sort of defending champion we were expecting.
A robust schedule keeps the door open for someone else to win the division, but Colorado’s the clear frontrunner.
🟰 Dallas Stars (102 points, 79 GP, .646%, clinched playoffs): Won three in a row, including two versus playoff-relevant teams. The Avs are even hotter, though.
Final games this week: @ Red Wings, @ Blues, vs. Blues
The Stars won all three of their games last week, but that April 1 regulation loss to Colorado looms large. With the Avs also winning, the Stars merely kept pace.
Granted, an easier-looking closing schedule does leave the door ajar to some extent for a division title. Wouldn’t it be funny if the Central Division title race boiled down to how motivated the Blues end up feeling to close out their disappointing season?
📉 Minnesota Wild (100 points, 79 GP, .633%, clinched playoffs): Tough week probably rules them out for early home-ice advantage, unless they get really lucky.
Final games this week: @ Chicago, vs. Jets, @ Predators.
There’s some elasticity with that closing schedule, as the injury-plagued Predators may not have anything left to play for by Thursday. If the West wild-card races stay tight, it’s a (hopeful) layup against Chicago followed by two teams in urgent situations. A No. 2 vs. No. 3 Central Division matchup increasingly looks like a doozy, and the Wild are almost certain to be stuck there (and near-guaranteed to start on the road).
At least a season of ups and downs has trended toward more highs lately, though that might not be much of a comfort if the Wild continue their long pattern of short playoff appearances.
Race for the Pacific Division title, seeding
🟰 Vegas Golden Knights: (107 points, 80 GP, .669%, clinched playoffs): Playing well, yet can’t rest on their laurels thanks to the red-hot Oilers.
Final games this week: vs. Kraken, @ Kraken
Normally, a 3-0-2 stretch against good/playoff-relevant teams would be something you’d either puff your chest out about, or at least view as a source of satisfaction. You wonder if the Golden Knights feel frustrated or even scared. Vegas basically seems like a protagonist running away from a slasher movie villain who somehow walks as quickly as potential victims run.
The Golden Knights have a serious edge to begin the playoffs atop the division, but there’s still room for a jump-scare or two.
📈 Edmonton Oilers: (105 points, 80 GP, .656%, clinched playoffs): Hauntingly hot, to the point that a division title is at least possible.
Final games this week: @ Avalanche, vs. Sharks.
Facing a comparably hot Avalanche team likely slims the Oilers’ division title odds. However, if the Kraken finish hot, would you totally count out the Oilers, who are blazing through the final stages of the season with a resounding seven-game winning streak?
There’s now intrigue for the Pacific third seed
📉 Los Angeles Kings (100 points, 80 GP, .625%, clinched playoffs): Zero standings points after losses to three good teams.
Final games this week: vs. Canucks, @ Ducks.
If the Kings win their two remaining games, they still won’t be able to gain home-ice advantage in the first round. However, the Kings have incentive to win those games anyway, as the Kraken have a chance to push Los Angeles out of the Pacific third spot and into the wild-card ranks.
📈 Seattle Kraken (98 points, 79 GP, .620%, clinched playoffs): Plowed through a weak recent schedule to open the door for a possible third Pacific seed.
Final games this week: @ Coyotes, @ Golden Knights, vs. Golden Knights.
One way or another, the Kraken are slated to influence the battles for Pacific Division seeding in serious ways. If the Kraken win out, they’d likely hold tiebreaker advantages over the Kings, so Seattle’s a team to monitor even with its first-ever playoff berth already in the bag.
Battle for West's final playoff spot
🟰 Winnipeg Jets (91 points, 79 GP, .576%): Won three of their last four, but one loss was in regulation to the Flames.
Final games this week: vs. Sharks, @ Wild, @ Avalanche
Gaining regulation wins over the Devils and (most importantly) Predators was important and promising, particularly considering the existential crises Winnipeg’s been going through. For a long time, it’s never really been easy for the Jets, so one could argue there was foreshadowing for that painful regulation loss to the Flames.
Winnipeg’s still in a pretty good position to squeeze into the playoffs, but with two tough closing opponents, they’re vulnerable.
📉 Calgary Flames (90 points, 80 GP, .563%): This team’s going to be confusing to the very end, isn’t it?
Final games this week: vs. Predators, vs. Sharks.
Last Tuesday, the Flames flubbed a regulation defeat to a tanking Blackhawks squad, thus ending Chicago’s eight-game losing streak. That’s about as “unforgivable” a loss as you can get this season. The Flames also only salvaged a shootout point from an already-eliminated Canucks team. While Vancouver’s been far more competitive lately, you just need to make the most of every game against non-playoff teams.
Yet, you can justify continuing to give the Flames CPR because they sandwiched a big regulation win over Winnipeg between that sad bread of defeat.
Monday’s Predators-Flames tilt may not technically be a “must-win” game for each team. But practically speaking, it probably is. Even if the Flames win, they’ll need the Jets to stumble a bit down the stretch.
Frankly, the Flames are lucky to still be in this race.
🟰 Nashville Predators (88 points, 79 GP, .560%): Huge regulation loss to the Jets might have done them in, but there’s still an outside chance.
Final games this week: @ Flames, vs. Wild, vs. Avalanche.
Losing to the Jets in regulation was the sort of big swing that might make this all but academic. Then again, people also expected an undermanned Predators team to lose to the Golden Knights and Hurricanes before that, yet Nashville keeps persisting.
This final week’s schedule includes losses “on paper” and Nashville’s most likely to need some help even if it nails a tough final stretch. My guess is that loss to the Jets probably killed the Preds’ realistic chances.
That said: basically no one expected them to remain relevant this deep into the season, prompting a theory that these Predators prey on the doubts of others.
