For Blue Jackets' Kent Johnson, the dreaded 'sophomore slump' is a blessing in disguise
As the 2021 fifth-overall pick looks to iron out the kinks in the AHL, the opportunity to hone his game away from the NHL should be beneficial in the end.
Sophomore slumps are real.
We’re seeing it unfold now with reigning Calder Trophy winner Matty Beniers, a top-end, highly touted prospect who is struggling to build off, let alone replicate, a strong rookie season. But over the last few years, we’ve seen more extreme drop-offs — Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Connor McMichael, Vasili Podkolzin, Philip Tomasino and Quinton Byfield come to mind — that result in second-year players playing in the AHL after spending their rookie year in the show.
This year, Kent Johnson is the latest victim to fall to the dreaded second-year curse.
At first glance, it’s strange seeing the 2021 fifth-overall pick in the AHL just one year after tallying 40 points in the NHL. That's only compounded for Johnson given that he scored several highlight-reel goals last year and is regarded as one of the most skilled young players in the world.
While hindsight is always 20/20, peeling back the layers shows that it’s not so difficult to see how this transpired. In a way, for Johnson, being in the AHL isn’t all that bad. It could even go down as a blessing in disguise.
Sophomore slumps are rooted in the massive season-to-season jump in expectations from Year 1 to Year 2. Oftentimes, teams allow rookies to play freely in an effort to not restrict their offensive output, with the thinking being that point production builds confidence, and confidence accelerates development.
That logic, in a vacuum, disregards how many corners are cut in the process. Last year, Johnson was given full reign by then-coach Brad Larsen to focus on his offensive game throughout a 2022-23 Blue Jackets season that was filled with meaningless hockey.
Heading into this season, however, Columbus made it clear they wanted to compete. There’s no doubt a player of Johnson’s ilk can score 40-plus points and work well on a power play in meaningless regular-season games, but can he have the same kind of impact on a contending team? Where would Johnson fit on a team like the Boston Bruins, or the Vegas Golden Knights?
Given how this year started, it’s clear that Johnson has lots of work to do before being capable of being a go-to guy for an upper-echelon team.
Before being sent to the minors, the 21-year-old struggled to veer away from his loosey-goosey style of play that made him successful last year and adapt to the system of his new coach, Pascal Vincent. Johnson struggled with turning pucks over, playing East to West too often — as opposed to North to South — and putting himself out of position, hindering his ability to win races. He was made a healthy scratch twice, recorded just three points in eight NHL contests and his confidence was in the gutter.
It’s hard to blame him for feeling that way as well. If you’re Johnson, how can you not feel satisfied with your first year in the NHL? He put up points, made the most of his opportunities and was finding success doing what he’s done best his whole life — weaponizing his skill.
There was little reason to think anything other than he'd be coming into a new season with a high degree of comfort and confidence. With that said, when a new coach comes in demanding accountability and attention to detail, it’s also not surprising to see Johnson, whose best trait is his creativity, hit a wall.
When players like Johnson are playing well, they’re stars. When they aren’t? They really hinder you. Luckily for Columbus, this is happening in Year 2, when it's still reasonable to send him down to the AHL to correct his game. The alternative would be to further reinforce these bad habits and punt on correcting his game down the road, only for him to struggle when your team is actually competitive.
That’s what we’re seeing right now with Trevor Zegras — another example of the misconception that scoring points in meaningless games early on helps make you a superstar. Sure, Zegras eclipsed the 60-point plateau twice in his early twenties, but his game is far from well-rounded and that’s the main reason why he and the Anaheim Ducks were so far apart in his recent contract negotiation.
This year, under the tutelage of another detail-oriented coach in Greg Cronin, Zegras, who carries a $5.7-million cap hit for the next three seasons, is struggling immensely (two points in 12 games) on a Ducks squad that’s competitive for the first time in a while. Having a player correct their game at Zegras’ stage of their career, compared to Johnson’s, is a much more difficult ask.
The AHL demotion is instead perhaps a blessing in disguise for Johnson. Of course, he’d rather be in the NHL having filet mignons post-game instead of the sandwiches or pizzas he gets after minor-league games, but the AHL is a much better environment to build up your game than the NHL. Especially in an organization where the NHL team isn’t meeting expectations.
In Cleveland, Johnson is working on refining his natural position of center, which he’s never done in the NHL. In the AHL, far from the big-league microscope, he can endure teaching moments while shoring up his game. Even though he has 14 points in his first eight AHL contests, the goal isn’t for him to score points — it’s to simplify his game in the defensive zone and face-off circle and become confident playing through the middle of the ice. All the little things that were disregarded in the midst of last year's success.
Ultimately, in a perfect world, you’d have all prospects of Johnson’s caliber start out in the AHL to build their game up in linear fashion. That’s not always realistic, however, especially when you’re trying to sway top prospects to sign and leave college.
U-24 AHL Forwards: Game Score/20 Leaders
Min 100:00 TOI
Data: @InStatHockey
GS Model: @domluszczyszyn pic.twitter.com/kfoz6crmj5— Jacob Stoller (@JLStoller) November 23, 2023
You can play the "coulda, shoulda, woulda" game all day long, but if you’re a Columbus fan, you should be encouraged by the fact Johnson is enduring a slump as a sophomore. It's better than the alternative: struggling down the road deeper into his career — like in his fourth-year as Zegras has.
