NFL Would You Rather? Breaking down Week 15 betting lines

Week 15 of the NFL season got underway on Thursday with the San Francisco 49ers earning the road win and cover as a 3.5-point favorite over the Seattle Seahawks. Fantasy football playoffs are underway, bye weeks are over and Saturday NFL action is back. It's a good time to be a fan of football.

Between Saturday afternoon and Monday night, we have 15 more NFL games to feast on this weekend. Today, we're taking a look at three pairs of games on this weekend's slate and deciding which side we'd rather be on if we were forced to make a choice.

Detroit Lions or New England Patriots?

With Zach Wilson under center for the Jets, the Detroit Lions are now 1.5-point road favorites at MetLife Stadium. It's a huge game for both teams as they both sit just outside the playoffs if the season ended today. Elsewhere, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots are 1.5-point road underdogs against the Las Vegas Raiders. Of course, Raiders' coach Josh McDaniels spent a long time as the Patriots' offensive coordinator under Belichick. The Patriots are right in the thick of things in the AFC playoff race. Which road team would you rather back in basically a pick'em spot?

Greg: The Raiders were on a mini-roll before their Rams implosion, winning on the road in Denver and Seattle, then beating the Chargers at home. Recency bias has bettors flocking to the Patriots, smashing the confirm bet button on a line that seems too good to be true. I see a lot of analysts on the fence for this game, who end up using Bill Belichick versus Josh McDaniels as a tie-breaker to flip over to New England’s side. I have no problem with that, but I think the fact that McDaniels was Mac Jones’ offensive coordinator and quarterback coach last year gives him the edge here. He knows how to rattle the second-year QB. The question is whether he has the personnel to pull that off with a defense that ranks dead last in dropback success rate.

Jared Goff’s home and away splits are rough. I’m talking Jekyll and hide your kids, hide your wife. New York blitzes at the lowest percentage in the league, yet they’re pressuring quarterbacks at the eighth-highest rate. If Quinnen Williams is a go for Sunday, I’m all about the Jets. I’d say this team’s closest comp is the Patriots, and we saw what New England did to Detroit at home. This streak where the Lions have won five of their last six games has been fun and I’m rooting for them to make the playoffs, but here are the defensive DVOA rankings of those five teams they’ve recently defeated: 22, 28, 29, 32, 23. The party stops against a Jets defense that ranks sixth and will get constant pressure on Goff while locking down his pass-catchers. Square me up with the Patriots.

Pete: As you mentioned, taking the Patriots here is a rather simple and perhaps square handicap. It's an extremely important game for the Patriots against a losing team. It has all the makings of a prototypical "Belichick business trip." Josh McDaniels had a brutal game last week and in general, in these situations, I prefer taking the teacher over the student. We saw it with Kyle Shanahan scheming circles around Mike McDaniel a few weeks ago. It'll probably be extremely ugly, but I think the Patriots pull it off on the road.

Zach Wilson starting this game certainly makes the Jets less appealing, but I think of the four units on the field in this game, the Jets' offense is the least influential. The Lions are 1-5 in games when they score less than 28 points. The Jets have allowed one opponent to score 28+ all season, and that came in Week 2. As Greg mentioned, cold weather, on the road Jared Goff and home, in a dome Jared Goff are not the same quarterback. Goff struggles immensely at the hands of the Jets' defense in this one. I'm with Greg, give me the Pats.

Cincinnati Bengals or Dallas Cowboys?

The Cincinnati Bengals have won five straight and seven of their last eight contests. On the season, they have the best record against-the-spread of any NFL team at 10-3. This week, they're on the road in Tampa Bay. The Bengals are 3.5-point road favorites. Tampa Bay is back under .500 at 6-7 and have covered the spread in just three of 13 games, the worst mark in the league. Elsewhere, the Dallas Cowboys survived a near disaster with a late game-winning drive against the Houston Texans as a 17.5-point favorite last week. This week, they are 4-point road favorites against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that has proven to be dangerous at various points this season. Which road favorite would you rather back?

Greg: Does Tampa Bay have a single impressive win since Week 1? I guess you could count the game in Germany when they beat the Seahawks, but that’s about it. The Bucs are running unopposed in the ghost town that is the NFC South, and that’s the only reason why we aren’t hearing more about how they’re dropping off a cliff. Tampa can’t run the ball, which means Tom Brady will have to try and noodle his way past a Bengals defense that’s fifth in dropback success rate.

Trevor Lawrence has been on a heater, so I’m excited to see how he fares against the NFL’s best defense this week. This is looking like another huge game for Tony Pollard and RB2 Ezekiel Elliott versus a Jags defense that’s 25th in rushing success rate and deteriorating like Spider-Man at the end of “Avengers: Endgame.” It doesn’t feel so good watching them, but it will this week if you’re a Cowboys fan. This is one of the toughest WYR decisions I’ve had to make this year. I’ll take the Bengals.

Pete: Why is Cincinnati only a 3.5-point favorite in this game? Am I missing something or is this just respect from oddsmakers for Tom Brady? Based on Tampa Bay's record against the spread this season, I'd guess it's the latter. This Bengals team is buzzing on both sides of the ball. They've consistently won games and covered spreads all season long. If this was any other 6-7 team that was bottom five in points scored per game, I feel like this line would be closer to a touchdown than a field goal.

I'm willing to throw out last week's performance by Dallas against Houston. It's a classic no-show, low motivation spot that every team has in a season. However, I'm somewhat nervous about the lookahead aspect for Dallas this week as well. Dallas hosts Philadelphia on Christmas Eve and Micah Parsons is already disputing Jalen Hurts' MVP candidacy. Jacksonville is no pushover and they can keep this game close, especially if Dallas is even a little distracted by their upcoming opponent. Give me Cincinnati as well.

Los Angeles Chargers or Cleveland Browns?

The Los Angeles Chargers put themselves in a good spot after beating the Miami Dolphins last weekend as an underdog. However, anyone who knows football knows that nothing ever comes easy for the Chargers franchise. This week, Los Angeles is a 3-point favorite at home against the Tennessee Titans. The Titans have lost three straight games, giving up 71 points over their last two games. Elsewhere, we get a classic AFC North rivalry on Saturday. The Cleveland Browns are 3-point home favorites against the Baltimore Ravens, who will be without Lamar Jackson again. Which home favorite would you rather lay the field goal with?

Greg: Are the Chargers back, or is this yet another twist in the “will they/won’t they” arc we’ve seen play out for the last six seasons? They’ll be forced to throw the ball against a Titans defense that’s league-best at stopping the run. That’s no problem with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen back. I’m such a fool for believing in the Chargers once again, but I just can’t quit them. They get the win and cover versus a Tennessee team that’s fading faster than a busy barber.

Deshaun Watson looks exactly like a quarterback who hasn’t played in years. I don’t see Nick Chubb running all over the Ravens’ defense, so I’m not sure how they’ll find many points in this game. Of course, they may not need to score a ton against a Baltimore team that’s topped 16 points once in their last four games. This will be an ugly contest. The Ravens win this one on the ground versus the Browns’ terrible run defense, making it six victories in their last seven meetings. I’m ready to have my heart broken yet again by the Chargers.

Pete: Is this a rare 3-for-3 agreement from us? For me, this question is a simple fade of Kevin Stefanski. Under Stefanski, the Browns are 9-14 against the spread at home. He's 4-12 against the spread when going against AFC North competition in the regular season and he's 1-4 both straight up and against the spread against the Baltimore Ravens. His lone victory came last season in a game where Lamar Jackson was knocked out in the first half. Stefanski has dealt with wild quarterback situations the last two seasons, but he's struggled at home, against his division and against the Ravens. In addition, the Browns have struggled to run the ball since starting center Ethan Pocic went down. Baltimore gets just enough from Tyler Huntley and wins outright.

Like you, I'm extremely nervous about believing in the Chargers. They've hurt me plenty of times over the last few years. On paper, this seems like a good matchup for the Titans as they could run the ball down the Chargers' throat, but Derrick Henry hasn't been good for over a month. On the other side of the equation, the Titans' secondary is exploitable as we've seen from Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence the last two weeks. Justin Herbert and his receivers should be able to put up points. Give me the Chargers as well.