Our best NFL Wild Card round picks: underdogs and revenge games as playoffs begin
The NFL playoffs have arrived as Super Wild Card weekend begins Saturday afternoon with seven win-or-go games on the line and a chance to advance to the divisional round.
The “script writers” couldn’t have done a better job than the storylines that will be talked about throughout the week as multiple big-name players will be facing their former teams in the Wild Card round this weekend.
I ended the regular season on a positive note as I went 4-2 on my weekly against the spread (ATS) picks in Week 18.
Here’s my record for the 2023 regular season as we now head into the postseason:
2023 record: 53-54-2
Against the spread: 45-44-2
Bonus Bets: 8-10
Here are my five best bets against the spread, plus one bonus bet to wager on for what really should be a Super Wild Card weekend:
Houston Texans (+2.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
The playoffs begin in Houston with a Week 16 rematch between these two AFC opponents.
These are two franchises that will be forever linked after the Texans sent QB Deshaun Watson to the Browns in exchange for first-round picks in 2022, 2023 and 2024, plus a 2023 third-round pick and a 2024 fourth-round selection in March 2022.
Cleveland then in turn gave Watson a fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million contract, still the only player to receive a fully guaranteed contract in the NFL.
Fast forward to now, Watson’s out for the season and the Browns have flourished under 38-year-old and Super Bowl 47 MVP in QB Joe Flacco.
The big difference from that Christmas Eve matchup is the Texans didn’t have standout rookie QB C.J. Stroud.
Cleveland rested its starters in Week 18 with the playoff spot already clinched in a 31-14 loss against the Bengals, while the Texans clinched a playoff spot and eventually the AFC South title with a 23-19 win over the Colts and the Titans upsetting the Jaguars on Sunday afternoon.
The last time these two teams met, the Browns were able to do anything and everything offensively as they routed the Texans, 36-22, but were up, 36-7, early in the fourth quarter.
I believe Cleveland will still be able to have success on offense like it did three weeks ago, just not nearly at the same level.
Not only do the Texans cover the field goal spread, but they win outright with an upset over the Browns in what has been the best stories of the NFL this season in Houston.
Buffalo Bills (-9.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
All hope seemed lost for the Bills as they were 6-6 heading into their Week 12 bye and could have even missed the playoffs entirely if they lost on Sunday night and other factors went against them last weekend.
However, Buffalo flipped a switch as it finished out the regular season on a five-game winning streak and the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
Even with all the ups-and-downs of this season, I’d lay the points with the Bills on this double-digit spread.
Buffalo has covered three straight during this winning streak and has faced top-tier offenses like the Cowboys, Dolphins and Eagles since Thanksgiving.
While the Steelers have turned a corner with QB Mason Rudolph since he took over as starting QB in Week 16, I’m not sure if they’ll be able to keep up with the Bills here especially as they’ll likely be without superstar linebacker T.J. Watt in this one as he suffered a Grade 2 sprained MCL in Saturday’s victory over the Ravens.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Pittsburgh keeps up in the first half but ultimately it’s not enough as Buffalo wins this one by double digits.
BetRivers has the best available price at -109 (Bet $109 to win $100) for the Bills as a 9.5-point favorite.
Green Bay Packers (+7.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
One of the most consistent QBs in the NFL during the second half has been the Packers’ Jordan Love. The former first-round pick has flourished since Week 10, throwing 20 touchdowns to only three interceptions in that span, all while leading the Packers to a playoff berth after a tough 3-6 start.
On the other side, the Dallas offense finally got back in a rhythm as it scored 30+ points for the first time in nearly a month after a scorching stretch where the team put up at least 30 on the scoreboard in every game from Weeks 10-14.
The revenge narrative will be a factor in this game as well with Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy facing his former team for the second time since joining Dallas in 2020.
This game will come down to whether the Packers use the same defensive blueprint that the Lions had in Week 17. In that matchup, Detroit became the first team all season to hold the Cowboys to under 30 points at AT&T Stadium.
Love should be able to do enough here to keep this game close throughout but in the end Dallas wins, though doesn't cover this slightly more-than-a touchdown spread on Sunday.
BetMGM and bet365 are the only sportsbooks that have the Packers +7.5 with a price of -110 (Bet $110 to net $100).
Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions
The ultimate revenge game takes place in the Motor City when QB Matthew Stafford and the Rams head to his old stomping grounds to face off against former Rams and current Lions QB Jared Goff on Sunday night.
In late January 2021, the two veterans swapped organizations as the Lions acquired Goff, a 2021 third-round pick, and a first-round selection in 2022 and 2023 in exchange for Stafford and the rest of his two-year, $43 million contract at the time.
Similar to the Packers, the Rams also had a dreadful 3-6 record prior to Week 9 and turned things around by winning seven of their last eight games.
The only loss L.A. suffered over that stretch was a 37-31 overtime defeat at the hands of the Ravens, who finished with the best record in the NFL at 13-4.
Outside of the obvious story narrative, I believe this has the chance to be the best game of the six-game slate this weekend.
The clear concern for Detroit is that one of its best pass-catching options in rookie tight end Sam LaPorta reportedly has a hyperextension and bone bruise in his left knee after leaving early in Week 18 against the Vikings.
Even if LaPorta is available, I’m still leaning betting on the Rams here especially with the half-point hook Los Angeles is getting as 3.5-point underdogs.
If you’re looking to bet on the Rams at +3.5, the best option is PointsBet Sportsbook with a price of -115 (Bet $115 to win $100).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The final game of the Wild Card round is Monday night when the Eagles head to Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers.
This is the second time in three years the Bucs and Birds are meeting in the Wild Card round as Tampa Bay took care of business versus a then-rookie QB Jalen Hurts, 31-15, at Raymond James Stadium.
There might be no team in the NFL that comes into the playoffs with a worse feeling or vibe around them than the Eagles.
They have dropped five of their last six contests, including back-to-back demoralizing losses versus the Cardinals and Giants to finish the regular season.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers don’t come into this one exuberating confidence either as they’ve only scored 22 points in Weeks 17 and 18.
However, prior to those matchups, the Bucs put up 21+ points in four straight and have covered in four of their previous five games.
On the other hand, Philly is 0-6-1 against the spread since Week 10. The last time they covered wasin their Super Bowl 57 rematch against the Chiefs.
With injuries to major playmakers that could impact this game in Hurts and star wide receiver A.J. Brown, I’m backing Tampa Bay to not only cover the field-goal spread, but to also win as home underdogs here.
PointsBet Sportsbook is the only betting site that has the Buccaneers at +3 with the lowest price of -110 on Monday evening.
Bonus Bet: Kansas City Chiefs-Miami Dolphins UNDER 44.5 points
Saturday night features another revenge game as WR Tyreek Hill and the Miami Dolphins go to Arrowhead and face QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Hill was the ultimate ‘X’ factor for the Chiefs as he amassed nearly 500 catches, over 6,600 receiving yards and 56 touchdowns with Kansas City over his first six seasons.
After contract extensions stalled, the Chiefs traded the four-time All-Pro to the Dolphins nearly two years ago in exchange for a 2022 first-round pick, second-round selection and a fourth-round pick, plus a fourth and sixth rounder in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Even though it’s one of the lowest totals on the board for Wild Card weekend, I’d still take the under in this one.
And even with marquee names on both sides of the field, neither team has scored more than 25 points over the final three weeks.
The Chiefs finished going below this total in five straight games to close out the regular season, while the Dolphins have gone under this total in three of their prior four contests.
Factor in that it’s supposed to be only a high of 14 degrees in Kansas City on Saturday night, I’d wager on this one having 44.5 points or less now on multiple betting sites as some sportsbooks have already moved this total to 44 as of Monday night.
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: NFL playoffs Wild Card Round betting picks against the spread
