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To figure out the difference between college football and the NFL, just look at the point spreads.
It’s no big deal to see a point spread of 20 or 30 points in college, and you can even get over 40 for the right matchups. It’s fairly rare to see a double-digit in the NFL. There was one double-digit spread in the NFL in Week 7: Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets. Buffalo was a 10-point favorite. There were no double-digit spreads in Week 6. In the NFL, there’s not a huge difference between the best teams and the worst teams.
Unless we’re talking about the best team and the worst team. Then there’s a 20-point difference.
Unless there are massive injuries on one team, we won’t see a spread bigger in the NFL this season than the one we have for the New York Jets vs. the Kansas City Chiefs. It’s almost three touchdowns.
BetMGM puts up line for Chiefs-Jets
BetMGM put up the Chiefs-Jets spread, and the line is -20.
While some power rankings might disagree on the best team in the NFL, the Chiefs are still the clear Super Bowl favorite at BetMGM. The Jets aren’t just the NFL’s worst team; they’re the worst by a wide margin. They are 0-7, though they finally covered a spread for the first time this season on Sunday. The Jets lost 18-10 to the Bills.
In oddsmakers’ eyes, this is the biggest mismatch the NFL can produce this season. And to add a bit to it, it’s in Kansas City. Yet, the spread is still lower than Minnesota-Maryland, Michigan-Michigan State or a few other college football matchups this weekend. It just looks like a massive spread because we don’t see many NFL games reach 20 points.
And usually, the underdogs show that those lines were too high in the first place.
20-point NFL underdogs usually cover
According to Stathead’s database, which goes back to 1978 for point spreads, there have been 13 NFL games with a spread of 20 points or more. There were two on the same day last season, in Week 3. The Jets covered as 20.5-point underdogs against the New England Patriots and the Dallas Cowboys covered as 22-point favorites against the Miami Dolphins.
The good news for the Jets is that 20-point underdogs have done great against the spread. Underdogs of at least 20 points are 10-3 against the spread. None of those teams have ever won straight up, but most of them keep it much closer than oddsmakers anticipate.
The Chiefs-Jets game should be a bloodbath, at least in NFL terms. Still, history shows covering a spread that high will be a tough task, even for the Chiefs.
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