NFL Week 13 best bets: One wager to make for every team
With the 2023 schedule reaching the final six weeks of the regular season, the playoff picture is taking shape and becoming clearer. Week 13 isn’t exactly rich with rivalry games or big-time matchups, but we do still get 49ers-Eagles in the late-afternoon window and Chiefs-Packers on Sunday night.
After a special Thanksgiving edition of our best bets series last week, we’re back with a full slate of picks for Week 13. Though six teams are on a bye, we still had 26 of our favorite bets for this week’s contests.
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM.
Colts at Titans: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Colts: Michael Pittman Jr. OVER 72.5 receiving yards (-115)
There have been few receivers as consistent as Pittman this season. He has at least eight receptions in each of the last four games and has averaged 81.2 receiving yards per game over the last six games. Meanwhile, the Titans have allowed one receiver to surpass this line of 72.5 yards in four of the last five games so there’s a strong chance Pittman makes good on this bet. – Kevin Hickey, Colts Wire
Titans: Derrick Henry OVER 77.5 rushing and receiving yards
For whatever reason, Derrick Henry has been far more productive at home than on the road this season. When at home, King Henry is averaging 107.8 scrimmage yards per game, as opposed to 61.1 per on the road.
Adding to that, the Colts sport the sixth-worst run defense in the NFL, which sets Henry up for what could be one of his better showings of the 2023 campaign. – Mike Moraitis, Titans Wire
Chargers at Patriots: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Chargers: Austin Ekeler OVER 30.5 receiving yards (-110)
Without Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer, Ekeler has been more active in the passing game. I don’t expect that change this weekend as Bill Belichick has had Justin Herbert’s number in the past meeting, being notorious for taking away deep shots and limiting him to throws underneath. Ekeler has gone over 30 receiving yards twice in the last three games. The Patriots are allowing 34 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs this season. – Gavino Borquez, Chargers Wire
Patriots: Patriots UNDER 16.5 total points (+110)
16.5 points? From this Patriots team? Don’t make me laugh.
The Patriots haven’t scored over seven points in their last two games, and those offensive struggles aren’t going to magically go away with Bailey Zappe likely starting at quarterback. The Zappe-Mania feeling will get sucked out of the air the moment the second-year signal-caller starts turning the ball over.
New England might also be without their best receiver, Demario Douglas, who is currently in concussion protocol. A bad offensive line combined with a lack of talent at receiver means another disaster is incoming. – Jordy McElroy, Patriots Wire
Lions at Saints: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lions: Jameson Williams OVER 24.5 combined rushing/receiving yards (-115)
Last week’s best bet was also Williams going over the projected receiving total, and he more than doubled the line. He could very well do that once again; “Jamo” has 44 and 51 receiving yards in the last two games, and his snap count and role each continue to grow in the Lions offense. Getting the chance for a bonus bump from a potential jet sweep or end around is sweet sugar on what should be a tasty king cake in New Orleans for Williams against the Saints, whose pass defense stats are fluffed by playing a remarkable run of bad quarterbacks. – Jeff Risdon, Lions Wire
Saints: Saints UNDER 20.5 points (-105)
The Saints have struggled to put points on the board in recent weeks, and Derek Carr failed to score a single touchdown pass for New Orleans on five trips into the red zone last week. With multiple starting wide receivers likely missing this game, it’s tough to see how he’ll keep pace with Ben Johnson’s Lions offense. It’ll be tough for the Saints rushing attack to make headway against Detroit’s strong run defense. The Saints will have to lean on Carr in this game, and thus far that hasn’t been a winning strategy. – John Sigler, Saints Wire
Falcons at Jets: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Falcons: Bijan Robinson OVER 58.4 rushing yards (-115)
The Falcons were cautious with Robinson early in the season, but head coach Arthur Smith has turned the rookie loose in recent weeks. Robinson received 14 or fewer carries in eight of the team’s first nine games. However, he’s had at least 16 carries for over 90 yards in two straight games. Look for the Falcons running back to go over 58.4 rushing yards in Sunday’s game against the Jets. – Matt Urben, Falcons Wire
Jets: Jets under 16.5 points (-120)
The offense has just about hit rock bottom. New York can hardly find the end zone and hardly scoring points. This bet would actually continue a trend for the Jets. Under 16.5 would have hit in each of the Jets’ last five games. Their last game with at least 17 points was their Week 6 shocker against the Eagles (20-14). Atlanta’s defense is physical and should give the Jets fits. This could be a low-scoring game. Make it six in a row under 17 points. – Billy Riccette, Jets Wire
Cardinals at Steelers: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Cardinals: James Conner OVER 54.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Steelers allow more than 118 rushing yards per game and 4.3 yards per rush. Conner averages 5.1 yards per attempt and has surpassed 54 yards in six of the eight games he has played. He will surely have a big game in his return to Pittsburgh. – Jess Root, Cards Wire
Steelers: QB Kenny Pickett OVER 194.5 passing yards (-115)
Last week the new-look Steelers passing offense was on point. Quarterback Kenny Pickett threw for 278 yards in his best game of the season. The Cardinals are 15th in the NFL in passing yards allowed at 215 per game. With a full week of practice to better tune up the new passing offense, look for Pickett to not only top 194.5 yards but he could approach 300 yards this week at home. – Curt Popejoy, Steelers Wire
Dolphins at Commanders: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Dolphins: WR Jaylen Waddle OVER 4.5 receptions (-150)
Waddle has been getting at least six targets per game since Miami’s Week 5 battle with the New York Giants. Last week, he recorded a season-high eight receptions against a strong New York Jets secondary. With Tyreek Hill dealing with an injury this week, Waddle might be an even bigger game-plan focus for Mike McDaniel and company against the Commanders. – Mike Masala, Dolphins Wire
Commanders: Sam Howell OVER 38.5 pass attempts (-125)
Howell has thrown at least 39 passes in nine of his 12 starts this season, and this game has the makings of another contest where he’ll be airing it out a lot. The Dolphins play fast and create a lot of explosive plays, which will give the Commanders the ball back quickly and thus increase the number of possessions they have. Not to mention, Miami allows the fifth-fewest yards per carry in the NFL so Washington may be forced to abandon the run and lean on Howell’s arm against the Dolphins. – Cameron DaSilva, NFL Wires
Broncos at Texans: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Broncos: Broncos +3.5 (-110)
The Broncos have won five straight games and while that’s no guarantee that they’ll win again on Sunday, there’s reason to believe Denver will at least keep his game close. Before their disaster in Miami and a tough loss to Kansas City, the Broncos previously had a 1-point loss to the Raiders and a 2-point loss to the Commanders. Denver has played in a lot of close games this season, with wins by 1 and 2 points (twice) during the recent winning streak. Even if the Broncos lose in Houston, they should be able to cover a 3.5-point spread. – Jon Heath, Broncos Wire
Texans: C.J. Stroud UNDER 264.5 passing yards (-115)
The Broncos defense was awful in the first few weeks of the season but since then, Denver hasn’t allowed more than 212 yards passing in its last five games. Stroud has easily cleared this number in his last four but Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz are both banged up and uncertain to play on Sunday. Take the under here. – Cameron DaSilva, NFL Wires
Panthers at Buccaneers: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Panthers: Panthers OVER 16.5 total points (+100)
We’re banking on the bounceback theory this week, folks. After head coach Frank Reich was canned, primarily for the lack of progress on offense and with rookie quarterback Bryce Young, the team has been put on notice. Whether the dismissal of Reich lights a fire or sparks a fresh change, the Panthers can start a bit fresh and let it all hang out. Perhaps a new set of eyes, or the subtraction of an old set, gets this group going—especially against a defense that has allowed the sixth-most yards per game. – Anthony Rizzuti, Panthers Wire
Buccaneers: Bucs by 1-6 winning margin (+280)
This Bucs team isn’t able to beat anyone in a landslide at the moment (or anyone in general, really), so while I do think this team can beat the 1-10 Panthers, don’t expect it to be by a lot. Tampa Bay’s secondary is still lackluster and the offense hasn’t been able to put together a complete game, and I don’t expect all of that to happen just because the Bucs are playing the Panthers. With a division rivalry at stake and a new head coach in Carolina, expect this one to be close and bet accordingly. – River Wells, Bucs Wire
Browns at Rams: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Browns: Browns UNDER 17.5 total points (-115)
The Browns are in a tough spot when it comes to the quarterback position, potentially having to start Joe Flacco. In the five games started by Dorian Thompson-Robinson and P.J. Walker, they only scored at least 18 points twice, and both of those were with Walker under center. Whether it’s Flacco or Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, it’s hard to see the Browns scoring more than 17 points against a Rams defense that has allowed just 30 points in the last two games. – Cameron DaSilva, NFL Wires
Rams: Tutu Atwell longest reception OVER 14.5 yards (-120)
Atwell had receptions of 42 and 21 yards last week, yet this number is even lower this week at only 14.5 yards. He’s cleared this number in eight of 11 games this season, and one of the games where he fell short was against the Packers when Matthew Stafford was injured, so we shouldn’t even count that. The Rams have tried to get him the ball on deep shots several times in the last few weeks and he hauled in one pass for 42 yards and drew pass interference penalties on two others. This has been one of my favorite props for any player in 2023. – Cameron DaSilva, Rams Wire
49ers at Eagles: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
49ers: Brandon Aiyuk OVER 61.5 receiving yards (-115)
After losing in the NFC championship game last season the 49ers, and particularly their wide receivers, had a lot to say about all the things they would’ve been able to do to Philadelphia’s pass defense had quarterback Brock Purdy stayed healthy. This is their opportunity to prove it against an Eagles defense that’s been very good in 2023, but more mortal than it looked a season ago. Aiyuk going over the 61.5-yard mark is also following a pattern from this season. The 49ers’ fourth-year WR has reliably alternated going over and under that total all season. He went under against Seattle in Week 12 which means he’s due to go over in Week 13. I’ll ride with that (but I also very much like D’Andre Swift over 50.5 rushing yards). – Kyle Madson, Niners Wire
Eagles: D’Andre Swift OVER 53.5 rushing yards (-115)
Swift is 4th in the NFL with 770 rushing yards, and he had another efficient day as a rusher in the overtime win over Buffalo, logging 14 carries for 80 yards on the ground. Philadelphia expects rain for the second straight week, and Swift should easily top 55 yards rushing, even with San Francisco’s run defense being second in the NFL, allowing just 82 yards per game. – Glenn Erby, Eagles Wire
Chiefs at Packers: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes OVER 21.5 rushing yards (-115)
Mahomes hasn’t been afraid to use his feet when Kansas City needs to move the chains, and in a primetime matchup like this, his propensity to get out of the pocket is likely to be on full display. While he has never been the fastest player in the NFL, Mahomes’ savvy on the run, especially on third downs, is the stuff of legend. Expect him to get crafty and use his wheels to help the Chiefs earn their ninth win of the 2023 season on Sunday Night Football. – John Dillon, Chiefs Wire
Packers: Jordan Love UNDER 0.5 interceptions (+120)
Love has finished back-to-back games without an interception, and he’s about to face a Chiefs defense that has just six interceptions in the first 11 games. Kansas City is disruptive in the form of sacks and fumbles but not picks. More comfortable and playing with more confidence, Love has avoided turnover-worthy plays recently. The guess here he’ll continue the trend barring some bad luck. – Zach Kruse, Packers Wire
Bengals at Jaguars: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase OVER 57.5 receiving yards (-120)
The arrival of Jake Browning at QB didn’t stop Ja’Marr Chase from catching four of his six targets for 81 yards in the Week 12 loss against a stingy Steelers defense. He’s blown past this number in seven of his last nine. Plus, Tee Higgins is projected to play for the first time in weeks, which could mean Chase gets less coverage thrown his way. It’s also the second week of Browning as starter, so we should see more of those motions and slot formations that create mismatches for big yards-after-catch chances. – Chris Roling, Bengals Wire
Jaguars: Evan Engram OVER 42.5 receiving yards (-110)
Four of the last five starting tight ends the Bengals faced racked up at least 70 receiving yards. The only exception was the Ravens’ Mark Andrews who had 23 yards in the first four minutes of the game before suffering an ankle injury that sent him to injured reserve. Most recently, the Steelers’ Pat Freiermuth finished Week 12 with a career-best 120 yards against Cincinnati. Engram is averaging 47.6 yards per game this season and there’s no reason to think he’ll have a below average night against the struggling Bengals on Monday. – Adam Stites, Jaguars Wire
