NFL player props: Packers' Christian Watson is an elementary play vs. Rams

The difference between illusions and magic is that illusions are tricks presented as magic. It certainly felt like magic when Baker Mayfield pulled a 98-yard game-winning drive out of his hat against the Raiders last week, just two days after the Los Angeles Rams claimed him off waivers. Can he replicate that feat again, or was it a one-off televised event, like David Copperfield making the Statue of Liberty disappear?

Vegas oddsmakers believe the genie stays in the bottle at Lambeau Field on Monday night, setting the Rams as +280 moneyline underdogs versus Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Here are three player props on BetMGM I like in tonight's frigid affair:

Christian Watson over 47.5 receiving yards (-115)

It's easier to steal the Declaration of Independence than it is for a rookie receiver to gain Aaron Rodgers' trust, but that's exactly what Watson has done (the trust part, not the Nic Cage part). He leads all Packers pass-catchers in targets over the last four games, turning those 27 opportunities into 313 yards and seven scores. The Los Angeles defense ranks 29th in EPA per dropback and is allowing the ninth-most yards to opposing wide receivers. Watson has gone over this number in each of his last four outings.

Allen Lazard over 44.5 receiving yards (-115)

While it's a pretty decent bet that at least one of Watson or Lazard will cash their receiving yardage props tonight, three of the last four games have seen both of them hit these numbers. Lazard leads Green Bay in targets (75) and receiving yards (620) on the season and is as much of a deep threat as he is dangerous in the intermediate area of the field. The veteran has a catch of at least 17 yards in his last 10 contests, which would go a long way towards hitting this prop. Lazard has cashed this in six of his last seven games.

Cam Akers over 53.5 rushing yards (-120)

Green Bay is surrendering the third-most rushing yards per game (154.8) and has given up 606 rushing yards over their last three outings. Its defense is just below average against the pass and ranks 32nd in rushing EPA and 31st in rushing success rate. The Rams' path to success on offense tonight will be to keep pounding the run. After briefly falling out of favor with Sean McVay, Akers is averaging 13 carries over his last four games and should get plenty of work versus a Packers defense allowing 5.0 yards per carry on the season and 5.7 yards per carry over their last three contests.

Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, CBS Sports, StatMuse, and rbsdm.com (garbage time removed).