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NFL odds: Best bets and long shots for Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year

mark drumheller
Betting analyst
·5 min read
11

For all 32 teams across the league, summer is the season of hope. We are more than two months removed from the draft, and each fanbase has had ample time to digest the fresh influx of talent. We have given the new depth charts a once-over, polished up our projections and scoured over the schedule. These behaviors are annual summer pastimes that will inevitably lead us to staring at the calendar until it reads September.

We are 57 days aways from the start of the NFL season. Each team has a clean slate at 0-0. The parity that we talk about every time a favorite lets us down never feels stronger than it does this time of year. Regardless of the team, there are fans and analysts absolutely sold on their potential success. Rather than quell the optimism this early with win totals, let’s focus on the dynamic rookies that will make the biggest impact this season.

BetMGM currently offers odds for both offensive and defensive rookie of the year. I will share where I see value in both markets by providing a best bet along with a player that provides good value as a long shot.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Best Bet: Anthony Richardson +700

Anthony Richardson has the most raw upside of any quarterback in this year’s rookie class. So much of a QB’s success stems from his landing spot, and the former Florida Gator hit the jackpot with new Colts HC Shane Steichen. I bet Richardson on draft night to be selected in the top five, banking his arm strength and athleticism would be too tempting for Steichen to pass up.

Colts owner Jim Irsay recently stressed the organization’s urgency in getting Richardson ready to contribute, making it more than likely he will have a full season to bolster his stat profile. Under Steichen, the dual-threat QB should put up exceptional rushing numbers to complement his accomplishments through the air. Whatever Richardson lacks in consistency as a rookie will likely get overshadowed by the explosive plays and jaw-dropping highlights that he'll produce on Sundays. The Colts can easily be players in the weakest division in the conference, and a late run at the AFC South will only build his momentum for the award.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) runs through a drill during the Indianapolis Colts OTA practice on June 7. (Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Long shot: Dalton Kincaid +3000

Tight ends don’t win awards. Until they do. The positional dynamics of Kincaid allow us to get a great price on the BIlls’ first-round pick, and his potential usage makes this bet appealing at the current odds. Pass-catchers won this award the last two seasons (Garrett Wilson, Ja’Marr Chase), and Kincaid is certainly expected to be catching a lot of passes from Josh Allen this year. He will be more a Swiss army knife tight end/slot hybrid who could provide just enough positional ambiguity to push the voters towards finally making the leap with a guy drafted as a tight end.

Kyle Pitts bettors from 2021 will quickly point out that history hasn’t been kind to tight ends entering the league. If I’m playing devil's advocate, not many come into a situation like Kincaid. He has Allen throwing to him and Stefon Diggs garnering attention on the outside in an offense that’s absolutely starving for production from the slot. If he plays well, the Bills are probable Super Bowl contenders, giving Kincaid the credibility and media attention required to win the award. I like being first. At 30 to 1, I will take a shot at history.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Best Bet: Jalen Carter +600

The Eagles couldn’t wait to draft Jalen Carter. So much so that they traded up one spot to the ninth overall pick to secure the former Georgia Bulldogs defensive tackle. Carter was once the most coveted defensive player in the draft, only to see his stock fall due to a serious off-field incident. Not only does he join a defense that led the NFL in sacks by a massive margin in 2022, but it’s expected to be even more aggressive under new defensive coordinator Sean Desai.

Five defensive lineman on the Eagles had seven sacks or more, with four reaching at least 11 on the season. Carter has the opportunity to slide right into the role vacated by DT Javon Hargrave, who departed to San Francisco after racking up a career-high sack total (11) playing alongside Philadelphia’s feared defensive front. Carter has everything you want to see in a player before placing a bet in this type of market. He comes from the top program in college football and now plays alongside a veteran group for the favorites in the NFC. Plus, he will have plenty of opportunities to make a statistical impact in a major market. That’s enough to get me to buy in.

Long shot: Myles Murphy +3000

You can’t get enough pass rushers when you find yourself as rivals with the most talented quarterback to ever play the game. That’s why the Bengals selected DE Myles Murphy in the first round. You will notice a theme with most of my awards bets. Winning helps, and having at least a shot at the postseason is even better. Players get less attention when they are buried at the bottom of the standings.

The Cincinnati-Kansas City rivalry is the best going in the NFL, so both teams will be in the national spotlight this season. The stage is there for Murphy. He gets to play under DC Lou Anarumo in a rotation of defensive ends that includes Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard. Coming from Clemson, I don’t worry at all about Murphy’s game translating to the NFL level. He is already getting rave reviews this summer, giving me confidence he is ready to make an impact from day one. Sacks get attention, especially when they are in big games for contenders. Murphy is a solid bet to make a much bigger splash in Cincinnati than his odds imply.