NFL futures, odds: Can a new coach propel the Minnesota Vikings?
The Minnesota Vikings were relatively competitive under Mike Zimmer. They reached at least seven wins in each of his final eight seasons. However, they only made the NFL playoffs in three of those seasons. They won just two playoff games over nine seasons with Zimmer. Over the past few seasons, it certainly felt like the Vikings should have been better than their record was.
Zimmer was relieved of his duties at the end of last season and was replaced by former Los Angeles Rams' offensive coordinator Kevin O'Connell. O'Connell obviously played a large part in the Rams' offense last season which culminated with them winning the Super Bowl. Zimmer was viewed as an old school, defensive coach, so O'Connell should bring a breath of much needed fresh air.
There's certainly optimism surrounding the Vikings entering the new season. People thought they've underachieved the last few seasons. O'Connell should be able to get more out of a skill position group that features Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook. On defense, they have two disruptive pass rushers in Danielle Hunter and Za'Darius Smith. They added to their secondary in the draft. A lot of people also believe the Green Bay Packers will take a step back this season, which cracks the door open a little wider for the Vikings.
The NFC feels wide open this season, with plenty of teams thinking they have a chance to at the very least make the playoffs. Yahoo's Frank Schwab ranked the Vikings 21st in his preseason power rankings. However, the betting market seems to be a little higher than that on Minnesota entering the 2022 season.
Will the Vikings make the playoffs?
Last season, the Minnesota Vikings won eight games. It was a disappointing season when you consider the talent on the roster, especially on offense. Injuries didn't help, but the season was disappointing enough to cost Mike Zimmer his job.
For 2022, the Vikings' preseason win total is set at 8.5 wins, but the over side is heavily juiced at -185. That juice comes as a result of a lot of betting action backing the Vikings to go over. Currently, over 8.5 wins has gotten 86% of the bets and 94% of the money. It might now be cost-prohibitive to bet the over at this number. Over 9.5 wins is available with odds of +105, but one win is a big deal in the NFL and creates a whole new handicap for bettors.
Minnesota is currently +250 to win the NFC North. Those odds are second best in the division, solidly behind Green Bay who is the favorite, but comfortably ahead of Detroit and Chicago. The Vikings are +130 to finish in second place in the division, which is the most likely outcome according to the oddsmakers. Minnesota is -250 to finish in a top-two spot in the division. Green Bay and Minnesota occupying the top two spots is a -165 favorite. The Vikings are the second most popular bet to win the division behind the Lions.
The Vikings are -115 favorites to make the playoffs, odds that suggest them making the playoffs is basically a coin flip. The Vikings join teams like the Cardinals and Saints, who oddsmakers also view as a coin flip to make the playoffs in the NFC. However, bettors fancy Minnesota's chances. The Vikings are the third most popular bet to make the playoffs in the league. At BetMGM, 96% of bets and 99% of money is backing the Vikings to qualify for the postseason. Minnesota is +290 to make the playoffs in a wildcard spot.
Minnesota is 20-to-1 to lead the NFL in points in their first season under O'Connell. Those odds are tied for 12th best with Arizona, Baltimore, Cleveland and Las Vegas. The Vikings finished 14th in points last season. Minnesota is 40-to-1 to have the most wins in the NFL.
Vikings are Super Bowl long shots
Minnesota enters the season as long shots to win the Super Bowl. They are 40-to-1 to win it all. Those odds are tied for 16th best with the Raiders, Dolphins, Patriots, Saints and Titans. This tier fits the Vikings well as it's a group of teams that will need to fight and claw to make the playoffs and probably don't have much of a hope once they get there.
The Vikings are 18-to-1 to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Those odds are tied for eighth best in the conference with the Saints. The Vikings are 14-to-1 to be the No. 1 seed in the conference entering the postseason. Those odds are 7th best, just behind the Cardinals but ahead of teams like the Eagles and Saints.
Vikings player props and awards
There's plenty of talent on the Vikings roster. What does the betting market think of some of their key players entering the season?
Kirk Cousins
Kirk Cousins enters his fifth season as the Vikings' starting quarterback. Cousins is 50-to-1 to win NFL MVP this upcoming season. Those odds are tied with the likes of Jonathan Taylor, Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones. Cousins is 20-to-1 to lead the league in passing yards this season. Those odds are tied for 9th best with Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. He's 18-to-1 to lead the NFL in passing touchdowns. Those are the 11th best odds, right behind Rodgers and Wilson and ahead of Matt Ryan. Cousins finished 9th in both categories last season.
Cousin's yardage prop for the upcoming season is set at over/under 4199.5 yards. He had 4221 yards last season and has gone over this number in three of four seasons with the Vikings. His over/under for touchdown passes is set at 31.5. He had 33 last season and went over the number the past two seasons. In terms of interceptions, the prop for this upcoming season is set at 10.5 picks. He had just seven last year and has 36 over 4 seasons with the Vikings.
Justin Jefferson
Justin Jefferson was very matter of fact in declaring himself as the second best receiver in the NFL behind Davante Adams. He was equally as confident in saying he'll be considered the best receiver in the league after this season. Oddsmakers aren't necessarily disagreeing. As the kids say these days, "no cap."
Jefferson is the betting favorite to lead the NFL in receiving this upcoming season at +900. He has the third best odds to lead the league in receptions behind only Cooper Kupp and Adams. He's also got the third best odds to lead the league in receiving touchdowns at +900. Only Kupp and Mike Evans have better odds than that. Jefferson finished second, fourth and sixth in the three categories last season.
Jefferson is 12-to-1 to win Offensive Player of the Year, which is tied for the second best odds with Kupp and behind only Jonathan Taylor. He's currently the most popular bet to win the award at BetMGM, and his odds have come down as a result after opening at 20-to-1. Jefferson is 150-to-1 to win NFL MVP, the sixth best odds amongst non-quarterbacks behind Taylor, Derrick Henry, Adams, Christian McCaffrey and Kupp.
Jefferson's props for the upcoming season are set at over/under 102.5 receptions, 1349.5 receiving yards and 9.5 receiving touchdowns. Last season, he had 108 receptions for 1616 yards and 10 scores. His career averages through two seasons are 98 receptions, 1508 yards and 8.5 scores.
Dalvin Cook
Fantasy players know all about Dalvin Cook. He's a monster and one of the very best in the game, but injuries are unfortunately a major concern. Just like it's a risk to draft him in your leagues, betting on Cook in the futures market is a similar risk. However, the reward might be worth it.
Cook is 10-to-1 to lead the NFL in rushing this upcoming season. Those odds are tied for third best with Nick Chubb. Only Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry have better odds. Cook ranked 5th last season despite missing four games with injury. Cook is 11-to-1 to lead the NFL in rushing scores. Those odds are tied for fourth best with Joe Mixon, trailing only Taylor, Henry and Chubb.
In terms of season-long props, the over/under for Cook's rushing yards is set at 1174.5 yards. He had 1159 last season in just 13 games, but he's gone under this number in four of five seasons, mainly as a result of injuries. His over/under for rushing scores is set at 9.5 touchdowns. He had just six last year but went over the two years prior. His over/under for combined rushing and receiving yards is set at 1499.5 yards. He had 1363 in his 13 games last year. He went over this number in both 2019 and 2020.
Danielle Hunter
Danielle Hunter is 40-to-1 to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Those odds are tied for 12th best with Derwin James, Von Miller and Jalen Ramsey. He's 14-to-1 to lead the league in sacks. Those odds are tied for fifth best with both of the Bosa brothers. Only Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, Aaron Donald and Trey Hendrickson have better odds.
Hunter had just six sacks in seven games last season, but he did record 14.5 sacks in each of his last two healthy seasons. His over/under for sacks this upcoming season is set at 11.5. Hunter is 40-to-1 to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year after missing ten games last season. Those odds are tied for 16th best with Julio Jones.
Other Vikings players
Adam Thielen might be sliding under the radar behind Justin Jefferson, but he's been a productive receiver in his own right. He missed four games last season due to injury but still posted 67 receptions, 726 yards and 10 touchdowns. His props for the upcoming season are set at 69.5 receptions, 750.5 receiving yards and 7.5 touchdowns. If he's healthy, he should fly past those numbers in this new offense.
Za'Darius Smith missed almost all of last season with Green Bay, but he's healthy and ready to go for the Vikings this season. He averaged 13 sacks a season in his two healthy years with the Packers. He's 25-to-1 to lead the league in sacks this upcoming season which is tied for the 14th best odds with Von Miller and three others. His over/under for sacks is set at 10.
A pair of rookie defensive backs for the Vikings are long shots to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year. Andrew Booth is 25-to-1 to win the award while Lewis Cine is 40-to-1.
Harrison Smith's interception prop for the upcoming season is set at over/under 2.5 picks. He had just one last season, but had five the season before that. He has 29 picks in his 10 year career.
Kevin O'Connell enters his first season with the Vikings with 14-to-1 odds to win NFL Coach of the Year. Those odds are tied for second best with Brian Daboll of the Giants. Only Dan Campbell of the Lions has better odds. A first year coach taking a non-playoff team to the playoffs is a surefire way to get yourself in the running for this award and O'Connell certainly has the opportunity to accomplish that.
Vikings open as home underdogs
A home team, getting points. What's better than that?
That's the role the Minnesota Vikings find themselves in for Week 1 as the Vikings open the season as a 2.5-point home underdog against the Green Bay Packers.
The Vikings are one of just four teams to beat the Packers last season, and most expect Minnesota to be improved and the Packers to take a step back this upcoming season. There's no better way for the Vikings to make a statement than to beat the division favorites early in the season. The Vikings are +110 underdogs on the moneyline.
