NFL Draft WR Rankings Debate: Zay Flowers

With the 2023 NFL Draft just three weeks away, analysts' position rankings are starting to take shape. It should come as no surprise that there are a number of draft prospects that they don't necessarily fully agree upon based on their rankings -- just like our very own Eric Froton and Connor Rogers.

Their updated WR rankings are a perfect example. You can check out Froton's full rankings right here and Rogers' full rankings right here, but we wanted to highlight three receivers in particular that these two have differing opinions on: Boston College's Zay Flowers, Wake Forest's A.T. Perry and Houston's Tank Dell.

Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

Eric Froton's rank: No. 2
Connor Rogers' rank: No. 5

Froton's stance:
When I attended the Shrine Bowl in Las Vegas, which Zay Flowers chose to attend over the more heralded Senior Bowl, I had the opportunity to speak with dozens of players about their collegiate and pre-draft training experience. One player I spoke with was Arizona safety Christian Young, who coincidentally was living in the same house with Flowers while training for the NFL Draft in Florida.

In this football version of The Ultimate Fighter house, where the trainees are much more congenial with each other since they're not engaged in daily mortal combat, Young or “C.Y.” as he is affectionately known, told an unprompted story about how Zay Flowers is the catalyst of the house. Every morning when it's time for their 6 AM morning workouts, Zay is the first one up ready to work, knocking on people's doors to get the house amped with his positive, infectious energy. That authentic passion and work ethic helped Flowers boost his billed college weight from 172-to-182 pounds when he checked in at the Shrine Bowl. His body composition evolved noticeably in the process. Morphing from his previous tight, wiry frame - similar to myself, to a fully-formed, rocked-up, premium athlete in the mold of my colleague, and former lacrosse standout - Connor Rogers.

Despite the added bulk, Flowers is still a rocketship, posting a 4.42s 40-yard dash (92nd percentile) and a blinding 1.49s 10-yard split (98th percentile), showcasing his trademark burst. Flowers is the rare sub-190 pound receiver, from a noticeably small 2023 WR class, who can win on the inside or outside, downfield or on hitches/slants. With the right landing spot I think Flowers could emerge as a top-20 fantasy wideout and is worthy of a mid-to-late first-round Superflex pick in dynasty leagues before draft capital is assigned.

Rogers' stance:
I have Zay right at No. 5 in my receiver rankings. He's an undersized target, but exciting to watch with lightning quickness and the ability to separate at all three levels. He has a very limited catch radius (29 1/4, 2nd percentile for NFL WR testing) and drops more passes than you'd prefer on tape.

Overall, he's a very hard target for defensive backs to mirror that he won't find himself routinely stuck in contested catch situations. I think at his size it will be tough for him to win on the outside at the next level, which is what limits his ceiling for me. He should be a capable number two option or high end number three in an NFL passing attack.

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A.T. Perry, WR, Wake Forest

Froton's rank: No. 10
Rogers' rank: Not in top 10

Froton on why he's a top-10 WR:
Perry is a long, rangy wideout who averaged a pristine 2.63 yards per route over the last two years with PFF deep grades of 99.4 and 93.2, Perry's 44% contested catch rate shows he can win at the catch point. He posted back to back 1,000 yard seasons with 26 touchdown receptions in addition to recording a 4.47s 40-yard dash and 11'01 broad jump (99th percentile) at the Combine for a superb 9.83 RAS.

While his change-of-direction skills can't compete with some of his shifty contemporaries, the 2023 NFL Draft wide receiver class has a glut of smaller receivers at the top of the draft board that don't have Perry's ability to play on the boundary. There are going to be a lot of teams that are searching for a proven winner on the outside with projectable traits, which is why we've seen so much chatter surrounding TCU's Quentin Johnston. However, after QJ there are five other big wideouts who will likely be drafted earlier than people realize and could have a similar impact to Johnston at a discount. Tennessee's Cedric Tillman is at the top of that list, along with Perry, Ole Miss' Jonathan Mingo, West Virginia's Bryce Ford-Wheaton and Stanford's Michael Wilson. Do not discount these five wideouts in your upcoming fantasy drafts.

On top of all that, Perry is a player who I have a personal affinity for after I spent a FA pickup on him in the 20-Team/50 roster spot CFB Winning Edge Dynasty CFF league back in Dec 22, 2020 that paid huge dividends.

Perry wasn't a heralded recruit, ranking as the 205th WR and 1,418th overall player in the nation in 2018, according to 247Sports. He barely saw the field until 2020, and even then his 47% catch rate and 1.42 yards per route weren't harbinger's of immediate success. Perry posted an intriguing 14.2 ADOT and 17 of his 34 targets coming downfield, so he still needed to be paid attention to in Dave Clawson's infamous slow-mesh system that plays at a lightning-quick pace and stretches the field vertically with Wake QB Sam Hartman.

The ripple effects of that transaction in December 2020 cannot be understated, as I brought home the 20-Team CFB Winning Edge Dynasty league this year thanks in large part to the Hartman-Perry connection.

Tank Dell, WR, Houston

Rogers' rank: No. 10
Froton's rank: Not in top 10

Rogers on why he's a top-10 WR:
At 165 pounds, Dell's weight will be a true outlier in the NFL. Once you get past that, there is a lot to like about the former team captain.

He caught 108 passes on 152 targets in 2022 for 1,399 yards, 71 first downs (per PFF) and 17 touchdowns. He also had 31 receptions that went for at least 20 yards. Plus, the consistency he displayed down the stretch was on a different level, hauling in a touchdown in each of his final 10 games.

Dell has above-average acceleration into his route (1.49 10-yard split is an elite testing metric). His transition from catching the ball to open-field runner is efficient and smooth. I love that despite his size, he often won vertically with burst and shoulder fakes.

Dell is a value slot selection in Round 3 or Round 4 of the draft with big-play ability.

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