NFL draft bets: We know three QBs will go in the first round. Will four? Five?
We’ve seen plenty of examples of quarterbacks being overdrafted. The Minnesota Vikings picked Christian Ponder way before they should have. EJ Manuel became Buffalo’s first-round pick. And so on. That happens when teams are desperate.
There aren’t many franchises clamoring for a quarterback now. Former MVP Cam Newton is unsigned, as is 2019 passing leader Jameis Winston. They’re both former No. 1 overall picks. The Cincinnati Bengals haven’t traded Andy Dalton yet, and he’s a three-time Pro Bowler. Scoff at them if you wish, but a few years ago they’d have been in demand.
The NFL quarterback field has never been deeper. And we’ll add three more first-round locks: LSU’s Joe Burrow, Oregon’s Justin Herbert and Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa might slip if teams are worried about his hip, but it’s impossible to see him falling out of the first round.
Other than that? BetMGM has more than 160 draft props posted, including how many quarterbacks go in Round 1. And the oddsmakers don’t think we’ll get to five.
Jordan Love is likely the fourth first-round QB
The line was probably set too high, at 4.5 quarterbacks in the first round. You have to lay a heavy price to take the under at BetMGM:
Total quarterbacks drafted in the first round
Over 4.5 +450; Under 4.5 -667
That means someone would have to bet $667 on the under to win $100. That’s steep, to say the least.
What if it was 3.5? That’s a little more interesting.
Jordan Love of Utah State is considered a likely first-round pick, but who takes him? It’s a question we might have to ask if Tagovailoa drops past the Los Angeles Chargers’ pick at No. 6, too.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have the ninth pick, but taking a quarterback doesn’t make a lot of sense. They should give second-year Gardner Minshew II a look, and drafting a quarterback No. 9 isn’t a shrewd move if they plan to be in the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes in 2021. The Las Vegas Raiders have two first-round picks and could look for an upgrade over Derek Carr. Nobody really knows what the New England Patriots, who have the 23rd pick, are thinking at quarterback. The Pittsburgh Steelers could start looking at an eventual replacement for Ben Roethlisberger, but they don’t have a first-round pick.
The old rules about quarterbacks being overdrafted might not be in place if teams don’t have a clear need. And not many do. For what it’s worth, Love’s draft position is set by BetMGM at 19.5, with the over at -176 and the under at +145.
Who could be the fifth QB in the first round?
Figuring out where the big-armed Love will land is also a tough question for Yahoo Sports NFL draft expert Eric Edholm (read his in-depth breakdown of Love here):
“Love is so tricky to figure out as a prospect — and where he'll go. There are teams that like him. But will, say the Saints or Packers use a late first on him? Or the Colts and early second? Or does some team trade into Round 1 to get the fifth-year option, a la Teddy Bridgewater and Lamar Jackson — former 32nd picks of yore? No clue on that one. My gut says he's this year's Drew Lock, who slid to 42nd last year. The guy who we assume goes first round who doesn't. But then again, there might be a Chargerian or Jaguarian shot in the dark that we can't predict.”
If it’s hard to find a landing spot for Love in the first round, then it gets even tougher to find a fifth quarterback to slide in.
Washington’s Jacob Eason, Georgia’s Jake Fromm and Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts would be the candidates. Hurts is helped by the movement toward dual-threat quarterbacks, but it’s still hard to see him getting into the first round.
If there’s a reasonable scenario for five quarterbacks in the first round — and cashing that +450 ticket — it’s if Burrow goes first as expected, then Herbert and Tagovailoa go in the top six to the Miami Dolphins and Chargers in some order. Then Love goes to the Raiders with one of their two first-round picks, or the Jaguars (also two first-round picks) have secretly been coveting him. Then it opens up the possibility of the Patriots (a total wild card) or Green Bay Packers looking for an eventual Aaron Rodgers replacement to take Eason, Fromm or Hurts. Or perhaps some team, like the Steelers, trades up to one of the final picks of the first round, like the Baltimore Ravens did with Jackson, to get a quarterback in the first round and have the fifth-year option on his contract.
It’s unlikely, but the odds reflect that. Since the under of 4.5 is at such a steep price, the only way to go is over. At least there’s a path to it, and teams have gone crazy at quarterback before.
More from Yahoo Sports:
