NFL betting: Week 6 survivor pool picks
Week 5 was packed with more twos than spring break in the Ozarks. Twenty-two percent of survivor pool entries were knocked out, two of the most egregious roughing the passer calls in NFL history were levied, and the Jacksonville Jaguars offense left a giant number two on the field.
What could possibly go wrong in Week 6 with 66.6% of survivor entries on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams?
Before we wade into this week's picks, let's reflect on our Week 5:
Week 5 picks
Best Bets: 0-1 (YTD: 5-3)
Leans: 2-0 (YTD: 7-1)
Traps to avoid: 1 elimination avoided (YTD: 9)
On to the Week 6 picks!
BEST BETS
Green Bay Packers (-7.5) vs. New York Jets
Two weeks ago, I faded the Packers because of high ownership and a fear that the Patriots would run all over them (they did). Last week, I predicted the Giants would shock Green Bay in London (they did). This week, it's time to back the Pack. Coach Matt LaFleur has never lost consecutive games in the regular season. As frisky as the Jets have been this year, two of their wins were highly improbable-bordering-on-fluky comebacks and the other was over Skylar Thompson.
Green Bay's weakness versus the run shouldn't be exposed too badly by a New York team with the sixth-lowest rushing success rate. The Packers offense ranks eighth in offensive DVOA, while Robert Saleh's defense ranks 21st. I expect Green Bay to move the ball effectively and not choke away a double-digit lead like they did last week. LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers will right the ship and Saleh can keep the receipts on this.
At just over 7%, the Packers are the fourth-most popular pick this week. They have solid future value with remaining games against the Commanders, Bears, and Lions (twice).
Baltimore Ravens (-6) at New York Giants
That's right, New York, I'm fading both of your teams this week, how do you like them Big Apples? The fact that Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale previously served as Baltimore's defensive coordinator and is intimately familiar with facing Lamar Jackson gave me some pause at first, but it cuts both ways. Jackson knows what he'll be up against on Sunday. He's outstanding when being blitzed, and the Giants lead the league in blitz percentage under Martindale (43.3%).
With more than a quarter of the season already in the books, Baltimore has trailed for a total of 11 minutes and 15 seconds. That's barely enough time for a self-loathing Southerner to cook a pot of instant grits. This is a great matchup for the Ravens, whose offense ranks second in DVOA and will face a Giants defense ranked 25th.
Baltimore is the eight-most popular pick this week, at 1.27%. Their future value lies mainly in home games versus the Panthers (Week 11) and Falcons (Week 16).
LEANS
Philadelphia Eagles (-6) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Yes, we all know how good the Dallas defense has been the past few weeks against some of the worst offensive lines in the league, but how will they fare against one of the best? No team has a higher rushing success rate than the Eagles, and only two offenses have a better overall success rate. The Philly offense is rocking, yet their biggest advantage in this game may be their defense, which also ranks third in overall success rate. Dallas' offensive line is dead last in Pass Block Win Rate and the Eagles are tied for the fourth-most sacks, so Cooper Rush could be under siege more than Steven Seagal. Rush's play thus far has been admirable, but I'm betting he won't be "beat the Eagles in Philly on primetime television" good.
Less than 1% of entries are on Philadelphia, making them the ninth-most popular pick. They have so much future value that I'm afraid I'll develop carpal tunnel syndrome if I list it out here. Go check their schedule.
TRAPS TO AVOID
San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons
The Niners have as much injury luck as Paul has good car ideas. Cornerback Emmanuel Moseley tore his ACL and is out for the season, safety Jimmie Ward broke his hand, defensive end Nick Bosa is the second Bosa to injure his groin, the rest of the defensive line are similarly questionable to play, and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair remains on injured reserve. Many of the players who have contributed to San Francisco's No. 1 defensive ranking will either miss this game or play at less than 100% against a Falcons offense that has shown some real spark.
San Francisco is the third-most popular team this week, at 11.28%.
Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) vs. Denver Broncos
The line on this game keeps dropping, which should be red flag number one. Denver lost left tackle Garett Bolles and cornerback Ronald Darby to injured reserve, but have some decent talent to replace them. The Chargers haven't been able to generate sufficient pressure without Joey Bosa. That's a concern when playing against an offensive line as stout as the Broncos'. Denver's offense has been unwatchable, but could get a jump-start against a Chargers team giving up the third-most points per game (27.2).
The Chargers are the fifth-most popular selection this week, at 6.61%.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
If you parlayed the Bucs and Rams moneylines this week, you'd get a price of -200. That means the implied odds of at least one of these two teams losing is 33.3%. If that happens, at least 33% of entries will get bounced from survivor pools and you'll pick up massive equity by taking any other team that wins. There will be much better spots to ride Tampa Bay, who are the most popular pick this week, at 33.73%.
Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, teamrankings.com, Football Outsiders, ESPN, and rbsdm.com (garbage time removed).
