NFL betting: Week 16 survivor pool picks
It takes more than skill and remembering to submit your picks in time to win NFL survivor pools. The biggest factor of all is luck. The 35% of entries who took the Minnesota Vikings last week were probably cursing themselves at halftime for fading Jeff Saturday on a Saturday. Their survivor seasons were over. Next thing you know, Minnesota pulls off the biggest comeback in the history of the NFL and all those entries are still live. That's what makes survivor pools so great. That, and the money.
Before we jump into this week's picks, let's look back at a Week 15 where only 8.5% of entries were knocked out:
Week 15 picks
Best Bets: 2-1 (YTD: 19-11)
Leans: 0-1 (YTD: 14-5)
Traps to avoid: 0 eliminations avoided (YTD: 16)
On to the Week 16 picks!
BEST BETS
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Murphy's law has had the Cardinals in an underwater headlock for the entire season and doesn't appear interested in releasing them. Arizona lost their second starting quarterback in as many weeks when Colt McCoy was concussed in a 24-15 loss to the Broncos. At this rate, we may see Kliff Kingsbury suiting up to lead a Kliff Kingsbury offense in Week 18. For Week 16, it will be third-string QB Trace McSorley under center for the third-worst offense in the league. McSorley has never started for an NFL team since being drafted in 2019, and his performance against Denver helped highlight why, as he completed just 46.7% of his pass attempts in relief of McCoy and threw two interceptions.
Arizona's defense ranks 31st in dropback success rate, which happens to be the strength of Tampa Bay's offense. Tom Brady takes advantage of a Cardinals unit that's been giving up one big play after another, Mike Evans stacks chunk yardage like a Jenga tower, and Arizona's disastrous season plumbs new depths.
At just under 9%, the Bucs are the fifth-most popular survivor pick this week.
Baltimore Ravens (-7) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta rookie QB Desmond Ridder is hoping that his second NFL start doesn't go as poorly as his first. Ridder completed 13 of his 26 pass attempts for 97 yards in a 21-18 loss to the Saints last week. The Falcons' offensive identity is wrapped up in running the ball, something they do at a 56.1% clip (second-highest rate in the NFL). When they can't get anything going on the ground, this offense is more depressing than a Radiohead album. The Ravens' run defense allows the third-lowest success rate, the third-fewest rushing yards per game (85.6), and the third-fewest yards per carry (3.8). Things are about to get very Thom Yorke up in Baltimore.
The Ravens' offense also ranks third in rushing success rate, while Atlanta's defense is dead last in that category. As Santa traverses the globe stuffing stockings on Saturday, Baltimore running back J.K. Dobbins will be stuffing the stat sheet. In the two games he's played since returning from a knee injury, Dobbins has rushed for 245 yards and 8.8 yards per carry.
Baltimore is the eighth-most popular play this week, at 2.22%.
San Francisco 49ers (-7) vs. Washington Commanders
The Niners find themselves on a seven game streak where they've won every contest by at least a touchdown and are averaging 27.6 points per game to their opponents' 11 points. San Francisco's offense is deadly, but it's their terrifying defense that's squeezing the life out of the competition. DeMeco Ryan's unit surrenders the fewest points per drive and shows more balance than Red Panda, ranking second in rushing success rate and third in dropback success rate.
Scoring has been about as easy for the Commanders as being green is for Kermit the Frog. Only three teams score fewer points per drive than Washington. A San Francisco defense with three extra days' rest shuts the Commanders down and Brock Purdy keeps his name floating in the Offensive Rookie of the Year conversation.
At 25.52%, the Niners are the second-most popular survivor pick.
LEANS
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at New England Patriots
Joe Burrow and the Bengals are rolling like a Katamari ball, scooping up six wins in a row. New England owns one of the league's best defenses, and will give Joe Brrr a test, but it's when the Patriots have the ball that things get lopsided. Matt Patricia was not placed on this earth to be an offensive playcaller, and yet here we are, watching QB Mac Jones yell at him every week while they try to figure out what's effective besides "play the Vikings" or "play the Cardinals." New England ranks 25th in offensive DVOA and will have their work cut out for them versus an underrated Bengals defense that's fifth in EPA per play. One of these teams is a legitimate Super Bowl contender and the other just lost to the Raiders on the dumbest play in NFL history.
Cincinnati is the seventh-most popular play this week, at 2.48%.
TRAPS TO AVOID
Tennessee Titans (-3) vs. Houston Texans
Ryan Tannehill is reportedly "very likely" done for the season with an ankle injury. In his two starts this season, rookie QB Malik Willis completed 11 of 26 pass attempts for 135 yards, an interception, and zero scores. The Titans are beyond banged up, have lost four in a row, and will be playing a Texans team that nearly knocked off the Cowboys and Chiefs in their last two outings.
At 28.09% Tennessee is the most popular team this week.
Kansas City Chiefs (-10) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Patrick Mahomes is a magician, but the Chiefs defense is a bottom half. In Jim Irsay terms, they're actually in the bottom quartile of defenses, allowing the eighth-most points per drive. Geno Smith has been lighting the scoreboard up for most of the season and could have another big day here.
Kansas City is the ninth-most popular option, with 2.01% of entries locking them in.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
This game carries the lowest point total in 14 years, thanks to Mother Nature. If you take the Browns, prepare to find yourself howling like the Cleveland winds after this one.
Cleveland is the 10th-most popular pick this week, at 1.64%.
Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, teamrankings.com, Football Outsiders, and rbsdm.com (garbage time removed).
