NFL betting recap: Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers continue massive struggle at the betting window

There hasn't been a lot of constants in the NFL over the last 15 seasons. For some, the game might look unrecognizable compared to what it was in 2008. Entering this season, one thing we could usually count on over that time period were dominant regular season performances from Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.

Brady is considered by many to be the greatest of all time. His resume with seven Super Bowls, five Super Bowl MVPs and three regular season MVPs speaks for itself. He's the all-time leader in quarterback wins, completions, touchdowns and yards. Rodgers has just one Super Bowl ring, but his four regular season MVPs is the second most in the NFL history behind only Peyton Manning.

When Tom Brady decided to un-retire earlier in the offseason, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were immediately reinstalled as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +750. Only the Buffalo Bills had better odds to win it all according to BetMGM. Expectations were also high for the Green Bay Packers, who had the fifth best odds to win the Super Bowl at 12-to-1.

However, through the first seven weeks of the NFL season, both quarterbacks' teams now have a losing record straight up. Both quarterbacks look like a shell of what we've come to expect from them in recent years. Both teams are bleeding money at the betting window which raises a question we haven't asked in 15 years: are Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady fade material?

Carolina Panthers pull off biggest upset of NFL season

Entering the week, the Carolina Panthers had the worst record in the NFL. In recent weeks, they fired their head coach (Matt Rhule), lost their starting quarterback to injury (Baker Mayfield) and traded away two of their most talented weapons on offense (Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson) for future draft picks. While no team would ever come out and say it, it sure looked like they were beginning the process of tanking.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers entered the matchup as a 13-point favorite. They were -700 favorites to win the game outright on the moneyline. In Week 6, the Buccaneers lost outright as a 9.5-point favorite to the Pittsburgh Steelers, which was the biggest upset to date in the NFL this season. Surely, there was no chance Tom Brady and the Buccaneers would lose back-to-back weeks as a massive favorite, especially to a team that most considered to be tanking for a draft pick.

Things started slowly for the Buccaneers on offense. They punted on their first four possessions in the first half. However, their defense was holding up against P.J. Walker, D'Onta Foreman and Terrace Marshall. It felt like the type of game that Tampa sleeps walk through and ultimately pulls out an ugly 14-3 win at the end. However, things got interesting at the end of the first half when Walker found D.J. Moore in the back of the end zone for a 20-yard touchdown. The Panthers entered halftime with a lead.

The slog continued into the third quarter. Carolina went three-and-out on their first three possessions, while the Buccaneers punted twice and turned the ball over on downs when Leonard Fournette was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 at Carolina's 25-yard line.

Late in the third quarter, Foreman ripped a 60-yard run down the sideline. On the next play, Chuba Hubbard found the end zone on the ground from 17 yards out. Suddenly, the Panthers, who were a near two touchdown underdog, had a two touchdown lead. With the way the game was going, it was hard to envision the Buccaneers coming back.

Tampa Bay answered with a field goal early in the fourth quarter, which was a questionable call on 4th-and-goal from the eight-yard line. Tampa Bay needed touchdowns and hoping for two more scoring drives after the field goal with the way the game was going seemed insanely optimistic from Todd Bowles and Byron Leftwich. It ended up not mattering as Foreman and Hubbard gashed the Buccaneers on the ground on the next drive, setting up a 29-yard strike from Walker to backup tight end Tommy Tremble. Panthers 21, Buccaneers 3.

At +500 on the moneyline, the Panthers pulled off the biggest upset of the NFL season. If you've bet Tampa Bay on the moneyline in every game this season, you'd be down 10.8 units. Meanwhile, if you've bet their opponent, you'd be up 7.5 units. The Buccaneers opened the season with back-to-back covers, but are now 0-5 against the spread in the last five weeks with four outright losses as a betting favorite.

The Buccaneers open as a 1.5-point home underdog on Thursday night against the Baltimore Ravens. It's only the third time since 2015 that Tom Brady is a home underdog and the first time since November of 2020. Overall, Brady is 9-3 straight up as a home underdog in his career.

Aaron Rodgers, Packers continue to struggle

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers entered Sunday as a 4.5-point road favorite against Taylor Heinicke and the Washington Commanders. However, for the third straight week, the Packers lost outright as a favorite of more than a field goal.

While this loss wasn't as egregious from a point-spread perspective as the last two Green Bay losses to the New York Giants and New York Jets, it's still a game that you certainly expect to win if you are Rodgers and the Packers. Aaron Rodgers has now lost games to Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson and Taylor Heinicke in three consecutive weeks.

The Packers are now 2-5 against the spread, which is tied for the worst mark in the league with the Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints, Jacksonville Jaguars and Carolina Panthers. The Packers have failed to cover in four straight games. Bettors who have bet the Packers on the moneyline in every game of this season are down 7.5 units, while bettors who have faded Green Bay are up 5.4 units. Next up for the Packers is a date with the Buffalo Bills, and Rodgers is a double-digit underdog for the first time in his career.

Falcons fail to cover for first time

All good things must come to an end.

In Week 7, for the first time this season, the Atlanta Falcons did not come through for bettors who backed them to cover the spread. Atlanta was a 6.5-point road underdog in Cincinnati against the Bengals, but they failed to cover in a 35-17 loss.

Joe Burrow was unleashed on Sunday as he threw for 481 yards and three touchdowns while adding another score on the ground with a quarterback sneak. Tyler Boyd had a career-high 155 receiving yards and a score, while Ja'Marr Chase survived an injury scare and went off for 130 yards and two scores.

The game looked like it could become a blowout of epic proportions as the Bengals came out to a 21-0 lead, scoring touchdowns on their first three possessions. Atlanta finally answered with a meticulous touchdown drive of their own that took over 10 minutes off the clock. However, Burrow and the Bengals answered right back to take a 28-7 lead.

Falcons' bettors had a glimmer of hope as Atlanta went on a 10-0 run to end the half to cut the Bengals' lead to 11. Would this team once again find the backdoor in the second half and get there for their bettors?

However, it wasn't meant to be. Cincinnati continued their dominant defensive run, as they've yet to give up a touchdown in the second half of a game this season. The Bengals extended their lead to 18 with Burrow's sneak midway through the third quarter, and that was all the scoring we got.

The Bengals have now quietly covered in five straight games as bettors look for another streak to ride. We thank the Atlanta Falcons for an extremely profitable ride to open the year.

Jets, Giants continue epic ride

The state of New York isn't ready to regress just yet.

Both the New York Jets and New York Giants entered the week with winning records and both have been gold to bettors. The Jets were 4-2 both straight up and against the spread, while the Giants were an even better 5-1 in both categories.

It seems like the whole football world is expecting the other shoe to drop with both teams, and that was reflected in the betting lines entering the week. The 5-1 Giants were a 3-point road underdog against the 2-4 Jacksonville Jaguars. The 4-2 Jets were favored by less than a field goal on the road against a 2-4 Denver Broncos team that was starting Brett Rypien at quarterback.

Both New York teams got in the win column once again, and both teams cashed for bettors. The Jets survived an ugly defensive struggle against the Broncos, pulling out a 16-9 win. The Giants once again had an explosive fourth quarter, coming from behind to beat the Jaguars, 23-17.

However, both teams are back in the underdog role next week. The Giants are a 2.5-point road underdog in Seattle against Geno Smith and company. The Jets are 1.5-point home underdogs against the New England Patriots, who play on Monday night.

The New York teams have been great to bettors all season long, and people have taken notice. The Giants were the second most popular bet of the week at BetMGM, while the Jets were the third. The most popular bet of the week was the Chiefs, who won in blowout fashion as a 1-point favorite in San Francisco. A good week for the public.