NFL betting lessons: The one trend that ruled wild card week
The first round of the NFL playoffs is in the books. Fourteen teams entered the postseason, and just eight remain as we head into the divisional round. It was a weird weekend of games with only two offering much in the way of intrigue and drama in the fourth quarter. Before we look ahead to the divisional round, it's important to look back on what we saw and what we could learn from it.
Favorites rule the day
Favorites went a robust 5-1 both straight up and against the spread over the weekend. The only favorite to fail to cover was the Dallas Cowboys. All of the other favorites won by at least a touchdown with four of the favorites winning by two scores or more.
A common take from this past weekend is that perhaps expanding the playoffs wasn't a good idea if it's going to lead to blowouts and uncompetitive games that dragged on. This take seems quite reactionary when just last season we saw Cleveland beat Pittsburgh on the road. We also saw the Colts hang with the Bills during last year's wild-card round, and the Taylor Heinicke-led Football Team gave the eventual Super Bowl champions a competitive game.
The Patriots and Cardinals weren't exactly competitive in their games, and I don't see people suggesting those teams should have been excluded from the playoffs. Last season, every wild-card game was within 12 points. This season, that wasn't the case. This will probably vary on a season-by-season basis. However, there's one trend that doesn't seem to vary.
First-time quarterbacks struggle
Entering this past weekend, first-time playoff quarterbacks going against quarterbacks who had previous playoff experience were a gross 14-32-1 against the spread. The thought process checks out. Playoff games are a new animal, and it might be overwhelming to a young quarterback who has never experienced it. An experienced quarterback knows what he's about to deal with.
Five quarterbacks made their playoff debuts this past weekend: Derek Carr, Joe Burrow, Mac Jones, Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray.
For the purpose of this exercise, Carr and Burrow are excluded because they went head-to-head. There was no advantage to be had there.
The other three quarterbacks went 0-3 straight up, 0-3 against the spread and were outscored by a combined score of 112-43. Jones' Patriots fell behind 27-0. Hurts' Eagles went down 31-0. Murray's Cardinals fell behind 28-0.
There are always exceptions to every rule. Baker Mayfield and the Browns trounced the Steelers in Mayfield's playoff debut in 2021, despite Ben Roethlisberger having all the experience in the world. We'll never forget the runs of Mark Sanchez and Joe Flacco. However, 14-35-1 speaks for itself. Fading first-time starters against experienced starters is good for a 71.4% win rate against the spread. Sign me up.
We always think that it might be different. The Patriots will control the ball with their defense and run game and turn Jones into a game manager. He also played big games at Alabama. He's different. Murray has been in the league for years and spent half this season as the MVP favorite. He too played big games at Oklahoma. He's different. Hurts is a different quarterback, he can run the ball. He doesn't rely on his arm. He also played big college games at Alabama and Oklahoma. He's different.
It doesn't matter, as we learned this past weekend. First-time starters in the playoffs are not worth an investment.
