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NFL betting: Jacksonville Jaguars take over as betting favorites to win AFC South

Pete Truszkowski
·3 min read
10

Things certainly change quickly in the NFL. After Week 11 of the NFL season, the Tennessee Titans were 7-3. It looked like Mike Vrabel was once again working his magic and getting the very best out of a Tennessee team that looked somewhat questionable on paper. On the flip side, the Jacksonville Jaguars were 3-7 at the time. It looked like another losing season and some were beginning to question whether Trevor Lawrence was overhyped as a prospect. The Titans were -1000 favorites to win the division. The Jaguars winning the division paid out at 10-to-1.

Fast forward to now. The Titans have lost four straight games, being outscored by over 11 points per game during that span. The opposite has been true for the Jaguars. They've won three of four games, scoring nearly 30 points per game. As a result, Jacksonville is within a game of Tennessee. The teams have a head-to-head meeting remaining. On top of all of that, the Titans are now expected to be without starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill for the rest of the season.

Jacksonville now favored to win AFC South

The Titans opened the week as slight favorites to win the division. However, after the Tannehill news broke, that quickly changed. Jacksonville is now a -145 favorite to win the AFC South at BetMGM.

Jacksonville is in action on Thursday, as it is a 2-point underdog on the road against the New York Jets. It's certainly a winnable game for the Jaguars, but even with a loss, they are in a solid position to win the division.

Both Jacksonville and Tennessee have a game remaining with the Houston Texans. The Texans have just one win on the season, but they have been extremely pesky in recent weeks against the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs. Tennessee is just a 3-point favorite over Houston at home this weekend. Nonetheless, it's a game that both teams need to win. At this point, you'd have to feel more comfortable with the Jaguars taking care of business than the Titans.

Next weekend, the Titans will play host to the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas will be a sizable favorite in that game, especially with Malik Willis under center for the Titans. If you assume the Titans lose to the Cowboys, then Jacksonville's game against the Jets on Thursday becomes slightly less important.

JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 18: Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars looks on during the first half against the Dallas Cowboys at TIAA Bank Field on December 18, 2022 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images)
The Jacksonville Jaguars are now favored to win the NFL's AFC South. (Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images)

It's very likely the division will come down to Week 18, when the Titans and Jaguars meet head-to-head. Jacksonville will be the home team after beating Tennessee on the road in Week 14. As long as Jacksonville enters the Week 18 game within a game of the Titans in the standings, it will be a win-and-in situation for the Jaguars. Based on the fact that Tannehill is injured and the Jaguars are home, it's safe to project the Jaguars to be favored in that game.

Put all of those factors together and you'll see why Jacksonville has taken over as the betting favorite to win the division. If the Jaguars beat the Jets on Thursday night, they'll be in phenomenal shape. Of course, wild things happen in the final weeks of the season. Just last year, these Jaguars ruined Indianapolis' season in Week 18 when they beat the Colts as 14.5-point underdogs.

However, if you're a Jaguars fan or are the owner of a betting ticket on the Jaguars to win the division, you're probably feeling rather confident right now. That's crazy to say when just a month ago, they were 3-7 and had 10-to-1 odds to win the division.