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NFL betting: Deshaun Watson trade moves Cleveland Browns' Super Bowl odds

Pete Truszkowski
·4 min read

Another day, another massive quarterback transaction in the NFL.

Within the past few weeks, we've seen Aaron Rodgers decide to stay in Green Bay, Russell Wilson get moved to Denver, and Tom Brady decide to come out of retirement and return to Tampa Bay.

On Friday, we added another name to the list. The Cleveland Browns traded for Deshaun Watson and immediately gave him a massive contract.

Like we saw with the Rodgers, Wilson and Brady news, the betting market reacted swiftly.

Cleveland odds see seismic shift

Entering last year, many people viewed the Cleveland Browns as a talented team ready to take the next step. They were coming off their first playoff appearance since 2002 and won a road playoff game in Pittsburgh during the 2020 season.

The one question everybody had about the Browns was whether Baker Mayfield was good enough to lead a team to a Super Bowl. Mayfield was certainly inconsistent in his first three seasons in the league, but he ended 2020 playing the best football of his career.

In 2021, everything went wrong for the Browns. They had key injuries at many positions, highlighted by Mayfield's torn labrum that originally occurred in Week 2. Mayfield tried playing through the injury, but it appeared he was getting more and more beat up as the season went on.

Mayfield had an absolutely awful season. There was also the Odell Beckham Jr. situation that made Mayfield and the Browns look even worse. The Browns went 8-9 and missed the playoffs while their cross-state division rivals with a young flashy quarterback of their own won the division and went all the way to the Super Bowl.

With questions surrounding Mayfield, the Browns opened at 30-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. Those were the 10th-best odds in the AFC. As the offseason unfolded, the Browns moved down to 35-to-1 over the next few weeks.

However, after trading for Watson, the Browns are now just 16-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. These are the eighth-best odds in the league and the fourth-best odds in the AFC behind the Bills, Chiefs and Broncos.

Are the Browns worth a bet?

Immediately, the Browns become an interesting team. They have a very solid defense headlined by Myles Garrett that ranked just outside the top-10 in defensive DVOA last season. They have one of the league's best offensive lines. They have the best running back duo in football with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The team traded for Amari Cooper and now has a legitimate No. 1 receiver. While the Browns lost a lot of draft capital and salary space in the Watson trade, they should recoup some of that when they inevitably trade Mayfield in the coming days.

However, there's reason to pause before betting on the Browns.

First and foremost, the AFC is loaded. The AFC North is challenging with the Ravens and Bengals certainly also viewing themselves as the best team in the division. The Browns will need to get through the likes of the Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders, Broncos, Bills, Patriots, and Titans in addition to their own division. Even with likely better quarterback play from Cleveland, it's an extremely tough road.

HOUSTON, TEXAS - DECEMBER 27: Quarterback Deshaun Watson #4 of the Houston Texans walks off the field after a 37-31 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals at NRG Stadium on December 27, 2020 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
The Cleveland Browns' trade for Deshaun Watson has shaken up the NFL betting market. (Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

There's also the Deshaun Watson question. He hasn't played NFL football in over a year and a half. Will he be able to just pick himself up, dust himself off and immediately play at the top-five level he was at prior to his legal troubles? He might, but it's certainly not a sure thing.

Speaking of Watson's legal troubles, while we now know he won't be charged criminally, that doesn't mean the NFL won't be suspending him. In fact, it appears rather likely he will be suspended. How long will the suspension be? That's anyone's guess but a lengthy suspension certainly appears warranted. Is half a season reasonable? If Watson misses half a season due to suspension, the Browns likely won't even make the playoffs this year in the loaded AFC with whatever stopgap they have at quarterback. Currently, Case Keenum is signed as the backup.

Also, let's not forget that this is the Cleveland Browns we are talking about. Very few things have gone right for this franchise over the last almost 30 years since they rejoined the league in 1999.

Super Bowl odds

These are the current Super Bowl odds for the top half of the the league at BetMGM:

  • Buffalo Bills (+650)

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-to-1)

  • Kansas City Chiefs (+850)

  • Green Bay Packers (11-to-1)

  • Los Angeles Rams (11-to-1)

  • Denver Broncos (14-to-1)

  • San Francisco 49ers (14-to-1)

  • Cleveland Browns (16-to-1)

  • Dallas Cowboys (16-to-1)

  • Los Angeles Chargers (16-to-1)

  • Baltimore Ravens (20-to-1)

  • Cincinnati Bengals (20-to-1)

  • Arizona Cardinals (25-to-1)

  • Tennessee Titans (25-to-1)

  • Indianapolis Colts (30-to-1)

  • New Orleans Saints (30-to-1)