Week 3 Fantasy Football power rankings and full slate guide
Here, I’ll run through every Week 3 game and rank them from best to worst from a fantasy perspective. We’ll also look at betting lines to project possible winners and game script, and examine one key matchup to watch in each game.
1. San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chief (1:00 pm EST)
Total: 56
Favorite: Chiefs (-6.5)
It might be a while until a non-Chiefs game ends up in the top spot. Under the watch of Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City keeps marching down the field and creating big plays. We have no reason to expect anything else in Week 3. The 49ers secondary has a major weakness on one side of the field. Teams have completely avoided testing Richard Sherman, throwing at him just four times through three games. On the other side of the field, Ahkello Witherspoon has been a clear weakness, allowing three touchdowns on 15 targets with a 125.3 passer rating, per Pro Football Focus. The 49ers simply do not have the coverage unit to keep up with the Chiefs, who find themselves at home for the first time in 2018 after dominating on the road in Weeks 1 and 2.
Matchup to watch
While we feel confident in our projections for the Chiefs offense, it’s much harder to get a read on their Week 3 opponent. The 49ers offense has wilted through the first two games of 2018. The efficient, high-percentage unit that we saw in 2017 seems like a ghost. Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown more passes into tight windows (27.1 percent) than any quarterback, according to the Next Gen Stats player tracking data, and only Deshaun Watson has been pressured on a higher percentage of his dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus. The lack of clearly defined open reads and the increase in pressure have been major factors to this offense’s slow start. While the Chiefs sieve of a defense would appear to offer the prime get-right opportunity, Kansas City has historically been a far better stop unit at home. The Chiefs allowed a mere 16 points per game in Arrowhead and 22 points in away games from 2014 to 2017. The 2018 Chiefs defensive personnel is far worse than any of those units but it’s a trend worth noting when projecting this game.
Jimmy Garoppolo will look to get right against a generous Chiefs defense. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:15 pm EST on Monday)\
Total: 53.5
Favorite: Steelers (-1.5)
This contest is firmly on the shootout radar. It’s the highest projected non-Chiefs game of the week. The Steelers offense went off in Week 2, with Ben Roethlisberger turning in the QB1 overall performance. The Bucs are the hottest scoring unit in the league right now, this side of Kansas City. Pittsburgh has allowed more passing touchdowns (seven) than any other team through two games. Quarterbacks have completed 77.4 percent of their passes against Tampa Bay’s defense. A points fest is inevitable.
Matchup to watch
While the Buccaneers just get roasted in the backend, their investments in the defensive front seven appear to be paying off. Through two games, the Buccaneers have allowed just 3.6 yards per carry. The team should even get a boost in Week 3, as hulking first-round nose tackle Vita Vea should make his NFL debut. Nevertheless, don’t let this hinder your view of James Conner as a clear RB1 play. While Conner accrued just 17 rushing yards in Week 2, he caught five passes for over 45 yards for the second-straight game. He’s run a route on 78 snaps this season, more than any other running back this season. You never shy away from a back with that workload.
3. New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (1:00 pm EST)
Total: 52.5
Favorite: Falcons (-3.5)
These Saints and Falcons matchups have long been favorites of fantasy football players. Their contests have averaged 49.9 total points since 2010. Three of those 14 contests have featured finishes with 70-plus total points. We have no reason to suspect anything different in this spot. The Saints defense hasn’t lived up to the billing through their first two 2018 showings and Atlanta will play much of this season without defensive cornerstones Keanu Neal and Deion Jones. Both teams still feature explosive offenses, with Atlanta coming alive against the Panthers on the back of a Tevin Coleman-led ground game. It’s hard to imagine this game not pushing the over.
Matchup to watch
The reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year, Marshon Lattimore, has been a problem for the Saints in the first two weeks of this season. Lattimore has allowed a 155.8 passer rating coverage this season, per Pro Football Focus. Mike Evans, in particular, went to town on the young corner in Week 1. On the other side of the field, Ken Crawley as given up three touchdowns and 208 yards of his own. If the Saints cornerback duo remains generous, it will only aide in the shootout effort. Julio Jones comes to town this week and he’s been the clear engine of this passing offense. Jones leads the NFL with a 71 percent share of the Falcons’ air yards. Allen Robinson is second with a 54 percent share in Chicago.
4. Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (4:05 pm EST)
Total: 48
Favorite: Rams (-7)
The “battle for LA” pits the Chargers vs. the Rams, a team that has actually captured this city as much as any football squad can. The Chargers got dropped in Week 1 by the unstoppable Chiefs offense but looked like a contender against the woebegone Bills. Knowing what Chargers squad will show up is always a dice roll and they’ll face the stiff Rams defense here in Week 3. However, if the Chargers cooperate just a bit, this game could easily push the over. The Rams should have no issues moving the ball against a defense that is still without its best pass rusher in Joey Bosa.
Matchup to watch
The Rams receivers have been as fascinating as advertised. Brandin Cooks leads the group in receiving yards and has been a staple on crossing routes over the middle of the field. Those patterns have made him an after-the-catch maven. Cooks has totaled 66 yards post reception this year. Robert Woods actually has the opportunity advantage in this group. He leads the team in total air yards and has a higher average depth of target than Cooks. Woods could easily pop if this game gets high-scoring. Cooper Kupp has extremely appealing usage, as well. He leads the team with a 40.2 percent target share in the red zone and has been on the field for 97 and 100 percent of the team’s snaps in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively. Kupp will line up against the Chargers slot cornerback Desmond King.
5. New England Patriots at Detroit Lions (8:20 pm EST)
Total: 51.5
Favorite: Patriots (-6.5)
If the Patriots were at home, we might see something closer to a double-digit spread. New England is a total mismatch for Detroit. The Lions can’t stop the run and have zero pass rush. With a former Patriots disciple at the helm in Detroit, not only should New England control this game, but it’s hard to imagine the Lions putting many points on the board. Matthew Stafford and company should take to the air early and the volume should be there for the wide receivers. However, a similar script unfolded in Week 1 when Detroit was smoked at home by the Jets.
Matchup to watch
The Lions surrendered 363 yards to the running back position in the first two weeks of the season, while the next highest team is Oakland with 265. For the math wizards out there, that’s what we in the business call “a lot.” Rex Burkhead was outworked by the rookie Sony Michel with six touches to his 12. Burkhead didn’t see a look in the passing game. Michel is a risky start here but is someone you need to keep an eye on given the juicy matchup and future ceiling. The Patriots could go run-heavy in this spot if they manage to keep and maintain a 6.5-point lead.
6. Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles (1:00 pm EST)
Total: 47.5
Favorite: Eagles (-7)
You could argue that this 47.5-point total is a bit too generous. The Colts offense hasn’t exactly opened up yet. Andrew Luck is averaging just 5.2 air yards per pass attempt, the lowest among any quarterback this season. The Eagles offense is one of the most banged up units in the entire NFL and will bring back their former MVP quarterback this week. Not only could they be without their starting running back, but the team will also likely give out significant snaps to veteran journeyman receiver Kamar Aiken and the freshly-signed Jordan Matthews, who is back for his second Philly stint.
Matchup to watch
The Colts run defense has been two-faced through the first two weeks of the season. Joe Mixon and the Bengals racked up over 100 yards against them in Week 1 but Indianapolis turned it around to smother Washington’s ground game in Week 2. One consistent weakness has been their inability to cover running backs in the passing game. The Colts have allowed the most receptions (22) to running backs so far this year. Mixon popped as a receiver in Week 1 and Chris Thompson paced Washington with 13 catches last week. Corey Clement has proven to be an able pass-catcher at the pro level. Darren Sproles should miss this game and that would put Clement in the top receiving back role with a chance for feature back work if Ajayi sits.
7. Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers (1:00 pm EST)
Total: 44
Favorite: Panthers (-3)
The Panthers and Bengals are both solid overall teams with several warts. Vegas expects this to be a slow-paced, low-scoring game and it’s easy to see such a script unfold. While these offenses have the skill-position talent to crank it up at any time, both defenses should keep the scoring at bay. Cincinnati has the horses up front to make minced meat of Carolina’s pass protection. If anything, the Bengals and their fully healthy ensemble at the pass-catching positions could take it to the Panthers secondary, especially with speedy rookie corner Donte Jackson not practicing with a soft tissue injury. Carolina could be on upset alert here at home.
Matchup to watch
When Joe Mixon missed time last season the Bengals dropped Giovani Bernard right into a 17-touch per game workload. He averaged 16 PPR points per game in those two contests. It’s worth noting Bernard has been in and out of practice this week with injuries, but if he’s a full-go, he should see that assignment once again. Bernard will get a Panthers defense that has shown cracks against the run. The Cowboys got some decent run on them in Week 1 but could possess the ball, while the Falcons backs ripped them up to a yards per carry average north of 6.0.
8. Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (1:00 pm EST)
Total: 45.5
Favorite: Packers (-2.5)
The Packers showed flashes of their usual dominant selves in Week 2 but one could tell Aaron Rodgers was not in peak form. He’ll get a shot to take the next step in Week 3 against a Washington team that let Andrew Luck nickel and dime them through the air and pushed around up front. The total in this game reflects the mid-range of both teams’ range of outcomes. Obviously, if Rodgers is near peak form, the Packers will kick to the high end of their spectrum. With Washington, we need to know if they’re closer to the bullies that they were in Week 1 against a sub-pro team in Arizona, or the team that was pushed around by the Colts on both sides of the ball in Week 2. If you believe in this team, you’ll want to take them to cover a 2.5-point dog at home.
Matchup to watch
The Packers have only been run on 45 times through three games but have allowed 4.6 yards per carry. Game scripts have hidden the true conclusion as to who they are as a run defense. Adrian Peterson looked like a potential gem for Washington in Week 1 but looked exactly like you’d expect an over-the-hill, part-time rusher to appear in Week 2. If Washington can keep this game close, Peterson should find room to run on Green Bay. Much like the rest of his team, we should get a tie-breakers idea of what we have in the 2018 version of Peterson after Week 3.
9. Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (1:00 pm EST)
Coming into 2018, the Broncos were 31-3 in their last 34 home games in the first two weeks of the season, per Warren Sharp of SharpFootballStats.com. Sure enough, Denver emerged victorious over their first two games this season in Mile High. The Broncos will take the cross-country trip to Baltimore in Week 3 to square off with the Ravens. Baltimore is coming off a long layoff from their Week 2 Thursday night road loss to the Bengals and is in a good position here. The Ravens have several matchup advantages over the Broncos defense and should see their defense turn in a rebound performance against Case Keenum. The Broncos veteran passer has been as mistake-prone as ever and that will prove costly against Baltimore. The -5.5-point spread is rather large but the Ravens could conceivably win this game by a touchdown.
Matchup to watch
John Brown has officially established himself as an every-week fantasy starter. Always a gifted full-field route runner, Brown holds esteemed company alongside Antonio Brown, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen and Odell Beckham as receivers who cleared the 95th percentile in success rate vs. man coverage in the history of my Reception Perception charting. Now that his talent has married with opportunity and his health has lent its cooperation, Brown is in a position to thrive throughout the 2018 fantasy season. In Week 3 he’ll draw a matchup with Broncos cornerback Bradley Roby. While Roby is a good young corner, he’s far from unbeatable. He allowed a touchdown on a go route to Brandon Marshall in Week 1.
10. Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings (1:00 pm EST)
Total: 41
Favorite: Vikings (-16.5)
The spread on this game is insane. Having a team favored by more than a touchdown is nearly unheard of in the NFL. It’s what we have this week with the Bills traveling into a buzz saw to face the Vikings in Minnesota. Buffalo just can’t hope to survive in this spot. The best we’re hoping for is some signs of life and resilience out of Josh Allen. If he stands tall and doesn’t wilt in this spot, the Bills can consider that a moral victory. All of the Vikings are must-plays in fantasy. Don’t worry about them getting yanked in a blowout. You won’t want to pass on a potential massive stat line from any of them.
Matchup to watch
(UPDATE: Dalvin Cook has been ruled out of Week 3’s matchup against the Buffalo Bills. Latavius Murray will assume starter duties in his stead and is a must-play after being dropped in the same situation Cook would have been in) Dalvin Cook hasn’t smashed in fantasy just yet but it’s coming. Just breathe. Cook still carries a near workhorse profile with a 74 percent snap share in the Vikings offense and 61 routes run through two weeks. You absolutely don’t give up on a running back with that profile tethered to an elite passing offense. Eventually, the opportunity turns into fantasy points and there’s no time like Week 3 against the Bills. The Vikings are an outrageous 16.5 point favorite over Buffalo and that’s exactly the type of run-friendly game script where a top rusher can thrive. As long as he’s even close to healthy, he should see his first big rushing game of the season.
11. New York Giants at Houston Texans (1:00 pm EST)
Total: 42
Favorite: Texans (-6)
Through the early portion of 2018, we have not seen the fireworks expected from these offenses. While their major skill position players have flashed, fatal flaws on their offense continue to dampen their outlook. Going into the season, we may have expected a Deshaun Watson vs. the Odell Beckham-and-Saquon Barkley-led Giants to push for a 50-point combined total. With the new data gathered in Weeks 1 and 2, that seems like a pipe dream. The projected 42 is quite low but is certainly in play.
Matchup to watch
Given that we know the Giants pass protection is poor, we should be more confident in projecting a demolishing from Houston. Yet, the Texans pass rush has yet to come alive. Through two games, J.J. Watt leads the group with five pressures and is the only player with more than one hurry. The abysmal right side of the Giants offensive line and their statuesque has-been quarterback should provide the type of get-right game for the Texan front seven, most of whom are coming off injury or still struggling with health.
12. Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (1:00 pm EST)
Total: 39.5
Favorite: Jaguars (-6)
This game didn’t open up with a line, likely due to the unclear status of Marcus Mariota and Leonard Fournette. Tennessee escaped with a win over a division rival last week with Blaine Gabbert starting but don’t have a prayer of doing so in Jacksonville. Even if Mariota is under center, this offense hasn’t clicked to the point where we’d be confident in them against this ferocious defense. The only player in the circle of trust is Dion Lewis, who led the Titans in touches during a Week 1 loss to Miami. We should see a similar script here.
Matchup to watch
Corey Davis has the opportunity of a No. 1 receiver. He’s averaging 10 targets per game and is fifth among wideouts in market share of his team’s air yards (48.7 percent). There’s little chance he turns that into production against Jacksonville, especially if Gabbert starts. Davis might make for an interesting buy low if/when he’s shut down in this spot.
13. Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (4:25 pm EST)
Total: 38
Favorite: Bears (-5.5)
The Bears offense isn’t clicking amid a shaky quarterback surrounded by new additions. The only player performing above a functional level is Allen Robinson, who owns over half of this team’s air yards and caught 10 passes last week. No one else in this passing game can be trusted. The Bears rank 30th in the NFL averaging 4.4 yards per play but luckily are set to go against a Cardinals team ranked dead last in this metric (3.7). The Cardinals have run a pitiful 94 plays over two games. The offense can’t stay on the field long enough for any of their players to rack up meaningful stats.
Matchup to watch
It’s hard to fathom how the rickety Sam Bradford does anything of consequence against the Khalil Mack-led Bears defense, who have throttled their last two opponents in six of their last eight quarters played. Smart money would hold that this is the last we see of the Bradford era in Arizona.
14. Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins (1:00 pm EST)
Total: 43.5
Favorite: Dolphins (-3)
The low total on this game makes sense. While the Dolphins offense has been surprisingly efficient, they still have far too few players to strike fear in opposing defenses. Kenyan Drake remains their best weapon but is still in a timeshare with Frank Gore. This could be a good spot for him as Oakland gave up 337 total yards to running backs in the first two games of the season. Drake should be able to push for 100 total yards in this home spot where his team is a three-point favorite. The Raiders offense showed signs of life in Week 2 but managed just 19 points.
Matchup to watch
Will the real Amari Cooper please stand up? After flopping with a one-catch performance in the Raiders’ Monday night opener, Cooper caught all 10 of his targets in Week 2 against Denver. He’ll face another stiff test this week with emerging shutdown corner Xavien Howard. The Dolphins defender has played lights-out defense since the latter half of 2017. He’s drawn the fewest targets among Dolphins cornerbacks and allowed a mere 28.2 passer rating in coverage. Fantasy gamers will hope Cooper’s volume and play reflect what we saw in Week 2.
15. Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (4:25 pm EST)\
Total: 41.5
Favorite: Seattle (-1.5)
It’s wild to think, but the Cowboys defense might just be the best unit on the field between these two teams. Dallas has only allowed 29 points through two games. Only Washington and the Los Angeles Rams have allowed fewer. Dallas has a talented defensive line and they absolutely demolished Eli Manning behind the Giants pass protection group on Sunday night. Spearheaded by alpha rusher Demarcus Lawrence, we could see Dallas wallop the Seahawks up front just like the Bears did in Week 2. Don’t rule out an upset here.
Matchup to watch
Overall, this game is gross for fantasy. The one player in Seattle this side of Russell Wilson who is in starting consideration is Tyler Lockett. He leads the team with a 25 percent market share of the air yards. With Doug Baldwin out, Lockett has taken over 50 percent of his snaps in the slot. His speed and quick route-running inside are simply too much for Dallas slot corner Anthony Brown.
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