Best Ball Plays: NFC
For an explanation on “Best Ball,” check out last week’s column, where I broke down 20 AFC options. The heart of it: These are boom-or-bust players, ones you often start the wrong week. They are tough to predict in standard leagues, but safer plays in best-ball formats, where the computer determines your highest-scoring lineup after the fact. Onto the NFC.
Bradford playing for coach Chip Kelly is the platonic ideal of the “boom-or-bust” concept. On the one hand is a quarterback capable of making any throw. On the other is a player who has torn his ACL twice in two years, and gone over 630 days without making a start. Kelly has spun Mark Sanchez and Nick Freakin’ Foles into fantasy gold, but Bradford might actually be his toughest challenge yet. Already skittish in the pocket, why should we believe Bradford will be any bolder after nearly two seasons away from the game? Any quarterback’s ceiling is sky high in Kelly’s offense, but success is far from assured for Bradford. That doom makes Bradford a wasted pick waiting to happen in standard leagues, but the potential boom keeps him intriguing in best-ball formats.
As we touched on with Stevie Johnson last week, compilers don’t always get the benefit of the doubt in standard leagues, and for good reason. Why insert a likely 4/48 when you have someone capable of 7/128/1 on your bench? But even though slow but steady doesn’t necessarily win the race in fantasy, it can still come in handy, even in best ball. All your Justin Hunters flamed out this week? No worries, Royal caught six passes for 59 yards and a touchdown, solidifying your WR3 spot. You’re rarely going to start Royal in standard formats, even though you know he’s a solid, safe play. In best ball, you can have the best of both worlds. You’re not married to Royal’s low upside, but his high floor is always there in reserve.
A freaky athlete for his 6-foot-5, 265-pound frame, “ASJ” had a lost rookie year as he battled foot and back injuries against the backdrop of truly embarrassing quarterback play. Now fully healthy, ASJ enters his sophomore season — typically the leap year for tight ends — with an improved supporting cast across the board, including at offensive coordinator. One of the league’s most creative users of tight ends, Dirk Koetter was coaxing career campaigns out of Marcedes Lewis before making late-career magic with Tony Gonzalez. Battling Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson for targets, ASJ will be up and down in 2015, but playing for a quarterback in Jameis Winston who loved to target his tight ends in the ACC. Although his floor is zero catches, ASJ has week-winning upside.
Funchess’ downside is real. Although he stands in at 6-foot-4, 232 pounds with 4.5 speed, he plays slower and smaller on tape. Nevertheless, the Panthers are counting on Funchess’ size translating opposite Kelvin Benjamin. It’s no secret that Cam Newton — who misses high more than any quarterback in the league — prefers towering targets, and the Panthers like the bullseye on Funchess’ chest so much that they traded up 16 spots to get him in the second round. A physical project without much technical prowess, Funchess should be a nonentity in standard leagues as a rookie. It’s his role and frame that put him on the radar in best-ball formats. Funchess won’t help much, but when he does, it’s likely to be big.
One of the most impressive pure athletes in the NFL, McKinnon averaged 4.8 yards per carry as a third-round rookie, adding 27 catches across 11 games. His reward? The return of Adrian Peterson, one of the greatest players in league history. Not exactly a recipe for fantasy relevance. But whereas some see AD’s return as that of a prodigal son, others spot a 30-year-old runner who’s touched the ball 23 times in the past 19 months. Peterson has proven time and again that he’s not a normal human being, but no one is super human. Peterson will be a workhorse for however long he stays on the field, but to assume he’ll simply pick up where he left off is wishful thinking. There’s still a role for McKinnon to play as a pass catcher, and a much bigger one were Peterson to get hurt. That’s the kind of upside worth rolling the dice on in best-ball formats.
Let’s be clear — there is no 1-2 punch in Philadelphia. The Eagles didn’t pay DeMarco Murray, who was the best running back in the league by a mile last season, $21 million guaranteed to divvy up carries with one of the most injury-prone players in the league. But Murray’s own injury history means there’s still a door ajar for Mathews, one he would explode through for RB1 value in the event Murray went down. Even if Murray does stay healthy — something he did in 2014 — there’s a chance many of Mathews’ 8-10 weekly touches will come near the goal line. Mathews is a two-touchdown game waiting to happen on your bench in standard leagues, but a potential two-score lifesaver in best-ball formats.
A former wide receiver playing for one of the most tight-end friendly coaches in the league, Paul earned a three-year, $6 million deal after breaking out for a 39/507/1 campaign last season. Although he’s still fighting for targets with Jordan Reed, Paul has proven to be the more reliable player. The ‘Skins didn’t give him $6 million to back up someone who can’t stay on the field. Paul’s timeshare means there will be weeks where he offers fantasy owners nothing more than 1-2 catches, but a few 8-10 grab games are a real possibility. Paul will be difficult to rely on in standard formats, but a high-ceiling option for best-ball platoons.
No stranger to hype, Spiller is again earning heapings of it as he prepares to play on the Superdome’s fast track for offensive mastermind Sean Payton. It’s earned, too. Spiller is one of the league’s best pass-catching backs joining a team that targeted its runners an NFL-high 166 times last season. But a little perspective never hurt. This is still the same player who has struggled to stay healthy each of the past two seasons, and averaged just 3.8 yards per carry in 2014. Spiller is not an every-week cinch. The question is if he’ll boom often enough to justify the busts behind early-down back Mark Ingram. Our guess is an emphatic yes. The middle ground between Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas, Spiller should prove worth the early-round investment in a format where the down weeks don’t have to be death knells.
Adams’ standard-league stock was irreparably harmed when Randall Cobb surprisingly re-signed with the Packers, but Aaron Rodgers’ No. 3 receiver is still going to have big days. Adams’ second-most recent contest was a 7/117/1 performance against the Cowboys in the Divisional Round, while he lit up the Patriots for 121 yards last November in a potential Super Bowl preview. Adams does work after the catch, and has proven he can high point the ball in the NFL. Predicting Adams’ big games will be a standard-league headache, but the weeks pick you in best ball.
One of the league’s youngest players last season, Mason was also one of its most-promising rookie runners. Unfortunately for his Dynasty-league stock, the Rams used the No. 10 overall pick on Todd Gurley, a player many consider the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson. But Gurley is recovering from a torn ACL, and has an unknown return date. Even once he’s back, it’s likely Gurley will be eased into the weekly tumult of the NFL. That leaves a big role for Mason to play, one that could produce plenty of helpful weeks early in the season. Mason will be a frustrating bench option in standard formats, but his booms won’t go to waste in best-ball leagues.
Matt Jones. Compared to Marshawn Lynch by his own general manager, Jones is expected to serve as the Redskins’ third-down back. A bigger role shouldn’t be ruled out. It’s Alfred Morris’ walk year, and Jones is GM Scot McCloughan’s handpicked runner. Jones comes with all sorts of upside as a flier.
Shane Vereen. Vereen has always been more of a best baller than standard-league asset, and 2015 shouldn’t be any different. Playing the role of check-down machine for an offense that wants to continue getting more contained and efficient, Vereen will soak up targets. Just don’t be surprised at the occasional 1-2 touch week.
Jameis Winston. Winston is a gunslinger who will Favre no shortage of passes into too tight of coverage, but he enters the league with a strong supporting cast. His group of pass catchers is much better than the one he left behind at Florida State. There will be four-touchdown afternoons.
Jared Cook. Cook only has 1-2 big games a year, but they tend to be really big. Pair him with a steadier option in a format that automatically starts your best performances.
Stefon Diggs. It’s quite possible Diggs begins and ends his rookie year without a role on offense, but he’s a dynamic playmaker with a chance to make noise all over the field. There are worse late-round gambles in a format that only counts your biggest performances.
Antone Smith. Perhaps the biggest “big-play threat” in the NFL, Smith won’t get many touches in new OC Kyle Shanahan’s system, but Shanny has always been a maximizer of running-back talent. One of Smith’s home runs could win you a week.
Drew Stanton. Carson Palmer talks about his knee injury like it never happened, but is not a player you can count on to start all 16 games. Now 35, it’s easy to forget it was a nerve issue that sidelined Palmer last season before his torn ACL. Playing for a pass-happy coach with an excellent supporting cast, Stanton is a random four-touchdown week waiting to happen.
Eric Ebron. Ebron is a work-in-progress, but his athletic upside remains tantalizing. The Lions need their 6-foot-4 sophomore to step up as a touchdown threat behind Calvin Johnson, and could force the issue.
David Johnson. Johnson leaves much to be desired as a between-the-tackles runner, but so does the player he’s backing up, Andre Ellington. Johnson will begin the year as a third-down back, but could easily stumble into goal-line duties for a team that lacked anything resembling a hammer last season. Two-touchdown days may not be far away.
Andre Williams. A bruising goal-line specialist with hands made of something harder than stone, Williams will be a frustrating standard-league option, but perhaps more valuable in best-ball formats. One three-touchdown performance could win you a week, and that week could be the difference in your league.
Don't forget, for the latest on everything NFL, check out Rotoworld's Player News, or follow @Rotoworld_FB or @RotoPat on Twitter.
