NCAA Tournament Projections: How Many Many Mountain West Teams Will Make It?
NCAA Tournament Projections: How Many Many Mountain West Teams Will Make It?
Is five a possibility?
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How Many Mountain West Teams?
With a conference like the Mountain West, Selection Sunday can be a frustratingly mysterious riddle.
For those that failed to win their conference tournament, suspense and mystery are inevitable. Even then, it seems like the Mountain West is prone to a uniquely large dose of ambiguity.
The Mountain West is well-established as a multi-bid league and has earned anywhere from one to five. Since the inaugural 1999-00 season, the league has only been a single-bid league three times, most recently in 2016-17.
The league has earned five bids once and four bids three times.
In the past two seasons, the Mountain West had two and then four. Which last happened in the 2008-09 and 2009-10 seasons, following which, the Mountain West earned three.
The last time the conference earned four bids before last season, however, was in 2011-12 and the following season the conference earned five bids.
The Mountain West averages 2.5 bids a year and has a five-year Rolling average of 2.2 bids.
At the commencement of the tournament, San Diego State, at number 16 in the NET Rankings, is in. No questions asked. Boise State, 27th in the NET, is on the bubble but looks pretty safe. Also on the bubble are Utah State, at 21 in the NET, and Nevada at 36.
New Mexico has at-large hopes but, at number 50 in the NET Rankings, has work to do. Beyond that, UNLV and San Jose State sitting at 90 and 96 in the NET respectively, are probably just outside of the bubble, even with a tournament run, but could make things interesting by making the finals. For everyone else, it’s automatic qualifier or bust.
ESPN’s Bracketology has San Diego State projected solidly as a 6-seed, with Boise State in the “Last Four Byes” group as a 10-seed, and both Utah State and Nevada in the “Last Four In” projected to be 11-seeds in the first four round.
KenPom, another popular metric, has San Diego State ranked at 15, Utah State at 23, Boise State at 29, Nevada at 39, and New Mexico at 49. The Massey College Basketball Ranking Composite has San Diego State ranked at 14, Utah State at 26, Boise State at 34, Nevada at 45, and New Mexico at 57.
During the season, as it became more and more clear that the Mountain West is, indeed, a top-tier basketball conference, hopes for a five-bid league began to stir. By the time New Mexico was left as the sole unvanquished team in the nation, those hopes were soaring, and although those hopes have mostly faded, that opportunity still exists.
I’m telling you, five-bid Mountain West. It’s a lot more likely than you think
— The Aggship (@TheAggship) February 1, 2023
Contrarily, the league’s parity can often closely resemble mutually assured destruction and there is still time for the conference to perform one last act of self-destruction before the season ends. A little bit of sabotage and the conference could find itself with only two bids.
Technically, a two-bid season is still possible, but only because almost anything is possible in the wild west. This outcome would require a specific and improbable series of events, combined with an unreasonably unforgiving Selection Committee.
Utah State and Nevada are the most vulnerable and would both have to lose their spot, without letting New Mexico sneak into a generous at-large.
The Aggies would have to fall to the Cowboys in dramatic fashion and the Wolf Pack would have to lose to the Spartans by an embarrassing margin. Both Utah State and Nevada have a win over the Broncos, so Boise State’s resume would have to take a hit. Air Force would have to advance past UNLV, then past Boise State.
This would leave AFA/WYO in the semifinals, where the winner would have to lose to San Diego State so the Aztecs take the automatic bid, ensuring nobody else does.
Even with this total implosion, the league probably ends up with more than two bids, but any plausible path to only earning a pair of invitations looks something like that.
The conference is far more likely to receive three bids and there are several ways for that to happen. Realistically, three-bids is the floor for this conference, assuming anything remotely resembling normal circumstances.
Any two out of Boise State, Utah State, and Nevada would just have to not give up their spot. Of the three, the Broncos and Aggies are the most secure, and with even a single win in the desert, would almost certainly join San Diego State in the NCAA Tournament.
Nevada is on the cusp, however, and a win against San Jose State helps, but if the Wolf Pack were to beat the Aztecs in the semifinals and advance to the championship game, it would be hard for the committee to send them packing.
Again, this might not be enough to discount the impressive resumes the top Mountain West schools are presenting, but for the conference to only receive three bids, one out of Boise State, Utah State, and Nevada has to fall out.
As it currently stands, the Mountain West is set to be a four-bid league.
Boise State, Utah State, and Nevada are all seemingly on the right side of the bubble and just have to stay there. One win apiece would make that much easier.
If the Aztecs, Broncos, Aggies, and Wolf Pack all win a game they would all be in good shape. Besides, if those four all win their first game, they will be the only four teams standing. A semifinal round consisting of the top four teams makes it overwhelmingly likely for all those teams to earn an invitation. After that, on the road to four bids, Nevada winning at least two games, beating San Jose State and San Diego State, would go a long way for the Wolf Pack and the conference, but it might not be necessary.
Five bids is certainly a stretch, even after the year the conference had, but there is still a legitimate path for the Mountain West to get back to sending five teams to March Madness.
It’s possible, but that doesn’t mean anything is guaranteed. There is an entire world of college basketball happening outside of the doors of the Thomas & Mack, and the ability to get five bids might have more to do with what happens outside of the conference than within it.
It is such a delicate formula that even if executed perfectly, results may vary.
The five bids, one automatic bid and four at-large, would have to be perfectly allocated. The top four teams would all have to fail to win the championship while retaining their at-large chances.
Realistically, there are Colorado State, Fresno State, or UNLV stealing a bid gives the conference the best chances at five bids.
The other teams that are on the outside looking in would have to disrupt the conference in a pretty significant way to get in and would probably cost another team their bid on the way.
What do we think will happen with #MWMadness? Check out our predictions right here.https://t.co/rikKv1sHP9
— Mountain West Wire (@MWCwire) March 8, 2023
There are two general outlines that lead to five bids.
Scenario one:
In the quarterfinals, Boise State, Utah State, and Nevada all win and San Diego State loses to CSU/FRES.
In the semifinals, CSU/FRES beats Nevada and Utah State beats Boise State.
CSU/FRES wins the championship against Utah State.
Potential Results:
CSU/FRES gets in on an automatic bid, San Diego State gets in, Boise state solidifies an invite with a win, Utah State solidifies an invite with two wins and a championship appearance, and Nevada sneaks in with a win against San Jose State and a loss to the championship team.
Scenario two:
In the first round, New Mexico beats Wyoming and UNLV beats Air Force.
In the quarterfinals, San Diego State beats CSU/FRES, Utah State beats New Mexico, Nevada beats San Jose State, and UNLV beats Boise State.
In the semifinals, Nevada beats San Diego State and UNLV beats Utah State.
UNLV wins the championship against Nevada.
Potential Results:
UNLV gets in on an automatic bid, San Diego State gets in, Boise gets in without a tournament win, Nevada solidifies an invite with two wins and a championship appearance, Utah State sneaks in with a win against New Mexico and a loss to the championship team.
These two scenarios seem like a good bet to hit the jackpot, but nothing is guaranteed. Even if one of these is followed exactly, the Mountain West could still find itself with only four or even three teams playing in the big dance. The unfortunate truth is that a bid-stealer in the mountain west would most likely be stealing from one of its conference rivals.
Regardless of how the tournament ends up, there will be a feeling of suspense when Selection Sunday returns.
Now, as the Mountain West tournament is about to begin, all the teams are focused on earning a bid to the dance, and the conference hopes to send as many teams as possible. Once they get there they have work to do. The goal is to get past the first round.
Making it to the NCAA Tournament is only part of the plan. The Mountain West is a powerful basketball conference and is still trying to establish itself as such. Part of that is having success in March. The Mountain West has enjoyed tournament success in the past but lately is in a drought. That needs to end.
The Mountain West has had a great year and has set itself up for success in the tournament. A multi-bid season is guaranteed and the conference could send as many as five teams. Once there, the teams will hopefully be able to compete and reestablish a pattern of tournament success in the Mountain West.
