NCAA Men's Final Four: Best Bets

UCONN and Purdue are two of the heaviest favorites in the history of the Final Four. As the two season-long dominant forces in college basketball, the Huskies and Boilermakers appear to be on a collision course in the national title game Monday Night. Alabama and NC State are looking to wreck those plans.

The game and player markets are out for both the semifinal games. Let’s dive into each game and find a few plays.

Saturday, April 6, 2024 @ 6:09P on TBS
Site: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ

11-NC State (+350) vs. 1-Purdue (-450)

Spread: Boilermakers -9.5 | O/U: 145.5

It is amusing listening to those who still believe Zach Edey is anything less than a fantastic college basketball player. Couple his dominance in the paint with Purdue’s efficiency from beyond the arc and it is no surprise the Boilermaker’s are in the Final Four.

The Wolfpack’s DJ Burns Jr has owned the spotlight as the darling of the NCAA Tournament. For his smiling face and fun-loving attitude to remain on televisions across America, though, Burns and his frontcourt mates Mohamed Diarra and Ben Middlebrooks will need to somehow slow down Edey. Burns has the weight to do so but not the height. Diarra has the height but not the mass, and Middlebrooks has the height and mass but not the skill set. That said, they do offer 15 fouls to defend with as well as three bodies to attack the Purdue pivot on offense.

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A case can be made for the Wolfpack to bother Edey and to defend the perimeter early, but can they maintain the high level of play defensively while also attacking on offense and scoring enough to pull off the upset? I doubt it.

Purdue has been one of the two best teams all season long and the books and I believe they will meet UCONN for the national championship.

So, let’s look at a few plays we like with the Boilermakers. Zach Edey’s worst statistical game this tournament was 23 points and 14 rebounds. Those are the worst numbers he has put up this fortnight. Previously we had played his points and rebounds separately but because he may spend the day at the free throw line, let's play Edey’s Points + Rebounds OVER 40.5. An interesting sweat is Edey’s assists if you can find it. A solid look if 2.5 or fewer.

Braden Smith OVER 6.5 assists is worth a sprinkle as is the OVER market for his points which is set at 11.5.

If I was to grab anything with State it would be Michael O’Connell OVER 3.5 assists.

Saturday, April 6, 2024 @ 8:49P ET on TBSSite: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ

4-Alabama (+525) vs. 1-UCONN (-750)

Spread: Huskies -11.5 | O/U: 160.5

As mentioned, UCONN is destined for Championship Monday. They have not shot the ball well and yet they have not only covered every game but blown out every opponent of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

Bama’s path to victory is a narrow one. They need to shoot at a high percentage from deep for 40 minutes and also get Donovan Clingan in some early foul trouble. I could see the latter happening but relying on shooting from deep when playing inside a cavernous football stadium is dicey.

Speaking of shooting, scary is the thought that UCONN has yet to shoot well in this tournament and yet they have tortured their opponents game in and game out. All tournament we have ridden with UCONN covering at the half and for the full game. We have been presented with no reason to get off the train. The Huskies -6.5 after 20 minutes and -11.5 for the full 40. I also would suggest a sprinkle on UCONN’s Team Total scoring OVER 86.5 points.

We have also played Tristan Newton’s points and assists OVER consistently. The assists have cashed each game. The points did not last outing. Donovan Clingan is all the talk after a game-changing performance against Illinois. That play has been less kind to us the last couple of outings as he has fallen 0.5 rebounds short each time.

Let’s stick with taking the OVER with Newton’s assist total set at 5.5 but let’s mix it up from there. Let’s get back in the Cam Spencer game and take the OVER on his point total of 15.5 and because this game probably features plenty of pace, let’s grab Stephon Castle OVER 11.5 points. If UCONN is going to hit the OVER on their Team Total, numerous bodies have to be filling the score sheet for Danny Hurley.
 
Enjoy the Final Four and let’s cash a few tickets.