NCAA basketball betting: The Sun Belt tournament is wide open
There's something magical about NCAA mid-major conference tournaments where the league's lone bid is on the line. The Sun Belt conference has the potential to earn its "Fun Belt" nickname over the next few days when its tournament gets underway. The field is wide open with at least six teams having a legitimate chance of cutting down the nets according to the betting odds.
Sun Belt tournament seeding and structure
The Sun Belt tournament will tip off at a neutral site in Pensacola, Fla., on Thursday afternoon. All 12 teams qualify for the tournament with the top four seeds getting a first round bye. Here are the seeds and odds for this year's tournament:
Texas State (12-3 in conference play, +250 odds to win at BetMGM)
Appalachian State (12-6, +600)
Georgia State (9-5, +400)
Troy (10-6, +800)
South Alabama (9-7, +400)
Arkansas State (8-7, 20-to-1)
Coastal Carolina (8-8, 10-to-1)
Louisiana (8-9, 20-to-1)
UT Arlington (7-10, 50-to-1)
Georgia Southern (5-11, 80-to-1)
Louisiana-Monroe (5-13, 100-to-1)
Little Rock (3-11, 250-to-1)
The tournament gets underway on Thursday with seeds 5-12 in action and culminates on Monday night with the championship game.
Texas State is the top seed and favorite
Texas State, led by Sun Belt coach of the year Terrence Johnson, finished the year on top of the conference with a 12-3 record. They finished the season on a nine game winning streak. Notably, the Bobcats have beaten every team in the conference at least once.
Senior guard Caleb Asberry leads the team averaging nearly 14 points per game. Texas State has the best NET ranking in the conference (118th overall) and the second-best mark in the conference in KenPom's adjusted efficiency metric (129th in the country, behind South Alabama.)
Other notables on KenPom for Texas State are their tempo and luck metrics. KenPom has Texas State as the fourth-luckiest team in the country and the Bobcats play at a snail's pace, ranking 338th in the country in adjusted tempo. Playing at a slow pace could potentially leave a favorite even more ripe for an upset if luck is against them. Despite those potential red flags, Texas State is the betting favorite to win this tournament with +250 odds.
Multiple teams can challenge the Bobcats
As we've mentioned, the Sun Belt is wide open. Which teams also find themselves with a realistic chance of securing the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament?
Georgia State: Georgia State was the preseason favorite to win the Sun Belt in the coaches' poll. However, they opened conference play with four losses and four COVID-19 cancellations. After that hectic part of their season, the Panthers settled down nicely. They've won seven straight and nine of their last ten games. Georgia State is also the only team in the conference to rank top-100 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency. The Panthers are +400 to win the Sun Belt tournament.
South Alabama: If you like analytics, the South Alabama Jaguars probably interest you. South Alabama has the best KenPom ranking of any team in the SunBelt. TeamRankings gives the Jaguars the best chance to win the tournament despite needing to play an extra game as the five seed. South Alabama has the second best NET ranking in the conference behind Texas State. The Jaguars are also +400 to win the tournament.
Appalachian State and Troy would surprise nobody if they made a run. Coastal Carolina might be a little more surprising, but again, nobody would be shocked. Arkansas State will be a tough out just because they have the Sun Belt's Player of the Year in Norchad Omier.
Whether you're a believer in regular season performance, analytics, momentum or even just your gut feeling, there's a bet to be made in the Sun Belt. The tournament projects as a wide open field and it's hard to argue too much with any of the top six or seven teams being a worthwhile dart throw.
Sun Belt tournament history
Below are the last ten winners of the Sun Belt conference tournament:
2021 Appalachian State
2020 Cancelled due to pandemic
2019 Georgia State
2018 Georgia State
2017 Troy
2016 Little Rock
2015 Georgia State
2014 Louisiana
2013 Western Kentucky (no longer in conference)
2012 Western Kentucky (no longer in conference)
