NBA playoffs mid-series fear meter: Ranking remaining teams from least to most afraid
Each of the 16 teams in the NBA playoffs has played four games, and only the Brooklyn Nets have been eliminated from championship contention. It is time now to assess the level of fear each of the 15 remaining teams should be feeling both in their current series and going forward — ranked from least to most afraid:
15. Boston Celtics
Lead Atlanta Hawks, 3-1
Despite losing to the Hawks on Friday, the Celtics have looked as impressive as any team in these playoffs. Atlanta scored 74 first-half points on 65.2% shooting in Game 3, including a 13-of-14 (7-7 3P) effort from the bench, and still Boston saw a clean look to tie in the final minute. Some familiar concerns surfaced for the Celtics, mainly their defensive intensity and late-game execution, but sometimes an opponent gets hot, and they can still secure three days rest before the Eastern Conference semifinals with a win Tuesday.
We know about Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Remarkably, Sunday night's victory marked the first time in the playoffs they have both scored 30 points in the same game. The emergence of Derrick White, the steady hand of Malcolm Brogdon and the guile of Marcus Smart allow first-year Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla to field a pair of guards who can impact both ends at all times. Robert Williams III and Al Horford each can elevate the ceiling of smaller lineups, or together they can form a fearsome double-big defensive lineup.
The Celtics have rarely dusted off Grant Williams and Payton Pritchard, both of whom positively contributed to last year's Finals appearance, and they have not just survived Sam Hauser's playing time but thrived in it (+17 in 45 minutes). The depth is relentless, and no other team can sustain Boston's standard for a full 48.
14. Denver Nuggets
Lead Minnesota Timberwolves, 3-1
The Wolves required overtime and a last-minute 3-pointer from Anthony Edwards to stave off elimination in Game 4. They only delayed the inevitable. Nikola Jokić has been as brilliant as he was all season, averaging a 26-11-8 on 57/57/63 shooting splits in 36 minutes a game, and his supporting cast has followed his lead.
Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are shooting a collective 41.9% on 21.5 3-point attempts per game. Murray's 40 points in Game 2 were a sign that the pre-injury version of his game — specifically the one that exploded in the bubble playoffs — is laying in wait. If the Nuggets can rediscover that Murray with some consistency, they can run with anyone on the offensive end.
Defensively, Denver has met the pressure of the playoffs, at least against Minnesota. A collective effort from the starters, combined with an infusion of Bruce Brown in any number of lineup combinations, has elevated the defense from a middling regular season outfit to the West's second-best unit through four playoff games. Until the Nuggets demonstrate the same level of competency against a more formidable opponent, the defense will remain a question, but Denver's rotation is the West's most well-built from top to bottom.
13. Philadelphia 76ers
Swept Brooklyn Nets, 4-0
How could the only team to sweep its first-round series be more fearful of their current status than Boston or Denver? Well, two reasons: 1) The Sixers beat a Nets team that was only in playoff position because of the work Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving put in prior to both being traded in February, and 2) Joel Embiid, the likely regular season MVP, missed their close-out game with a right knee sprain and remains day-to-day.
Embiid looked gassed in Game 3, when he scored 14 points on 13 shots — his lowest-scoring output of any game this season in which he played more than 20 minutes. Philadelphia's issues run deeper. James Harden shot just 26.5% from 2-point range and 2 of 6 from inside of eight feet against the Nets, furthering concerns that the one-time MVP's age, playoff history and late-season Achilles injury could limit his impact.
Philadelphia's own history with Boston, its likely second-round opponent, is more cause for alarm, since the Celtics have superior personnel to execute Brooklyn's game plan more forcefully. The Nets were in every game but the series opener and had real shots to steal Games 3 and 4; they just lacked the horses. Boston's length and athleticism will make life harder on both Embiid and Harden. That said, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris looked impressive against Boston, and their continued contributions can narrow the gap.
12. New York Knicks
Lead Cleveland Cavaliers, 3-1
Theoretically, New York should be more fearful of blowing its 3-1 lead to the Cavaliers than the Phoenix Suns are of losing to the Los Angeles Clippers, but in practice the Knicks have inspired more confidence that their current brand of basketball is sustainable. Their defense is awesome, and so is Jalen Brunson.
Those are constants now, and they have room for improvement. The Knicks have gotten contributions nine deep, but Julius Randle, R.J. Barrett and Immanuel Quickley have yet to provide much offensive punch, shooting a combined 35.4% from the field and 24.2% from deep in the series. It is reasonable to think they should be better, even if you have doubts about the Knicks when their physicality meets superior talent.
Making this a series may have once been the goal, but New York — looking up at either the Miami Heat or the wounded Milwaukee Bucks in the second round — can now envision a path to the conference finals.
11. Phoenix Suns
Lead Los Angeles Clippers, 3-1
The Suns have needed every ounce of effort from Durant, Devin Booker and Chris Paul to keep a Clippers team without Kawhi Leonard or Paul George from evening the series or taking their own 3-1 lead.
The Clippers have considerable depth, and it only magnifies the lack of it in Phoenix beyond Deandre Ayton as a fourth option. Torrey Craig has seized the fifth starting spot and performed well above expectations in his role, and still the Suns have had to hold off Russell Westbrook and company. Nobody else on Phoenix's roster is trustworthy in a playoff setting, and that has forced big minutes early for Booker, Durant and Paul.
Respectively riding oft-injured 30-somethings Durant and Paul for 43.8 and 38.8 minutes a night feels like malpractice, only there is no solution in the rotation for a respite when a series gets longer and tougher. On the bright side, Durant has four more games under his belt with his new team, and they are a win away from earning a few more days of rest and practice before they face a team not missing its two best players.
10. Golden State Warriors
Tied with Sacramento Kings, 2-2
The Warriors demonstrated championship grit in their Games 3 and 4 victories, winning the first without the suspended Draymond Green and the second in dramatic fashion. The defending champs caught a break on Monday, when news broke that Kings star De'Aaron Fox fractured a fingertip on his shooting hand. Golden State is vulnerable, and Sacramento can sense it, but playoff experience tilts heavily in the Warriors' favor.
So long as they are still alive, the Warriors will fear no one, especially once Stephen Curry smells blood. Golden State is desperate to find consistency beyond its core contributors, but when Curry, Green and Klay Thompson are the soul of the squad, they can inspire enough confidence to compel each win into the next.
9. Miami Heat
Lead the Milwaukee Bucks, 3-1
What do the Heat have to lose? Quite a lot, actually. Their toughness in this series with the Bucks is worthy of everyone's admiration, even if Giannis Antetokounmpo has played fewer than 50 minutes for Milwaukee. Jimmy Butler is a wonder. Yet, the Heat cannot scratch and claw their way to a title, however plausible they make it seem, and Pat Riley should not be satisfied falling short of his ultimate goal for a 10th straight year.
They won 44 games in the regular season. They nearly missed the playoffs entirely. The Butler experience is incredible, but he turns 34 years old in September, and he can only carry so heavy a burden. Is a series win an excuse to carry on with the current roster? Does Tyler Herro's injury give them hope he can take Miami to another level at age 24? Can they move the final year of 37-year-old Kyle Lowry's deal? Riley always has something up his sleeve, and the style and city his team plays in is easy to sell to players enticed by both.
Maybe the Heat bask in the Butler playoff aura. Maybe they package other assets to build around him and Bam Adebayo. Maybe Adebayo is trade bait. Maybe they completely reinvent themselves. There is always hope in Miami, so long as you understand that faking it until you make it becomes less enticing with age.
8. Los Angeles Lakers
Lead the Memphis Grizzlies, 3-1
What LeBron James is doing now is beyond comprehension. He is 38 years old, in his 20th NBA season, and he almost certainly needs surgery on the torn tendon in his right foot. He refuses to go quietly into that good night, and his Lakers have gone from potentially missing the playoffs to envisioning a title as a result. How do you even explain the emergence of Austin Reaves but for his drive to meet James' expectations?
Let us be real, though. Anthony Davis cannot decide whether he belongs in an infirmary or the pantheon, and the Lakers need him to be the all-world performer for two more months — an ask he has not answered since the bubble, where four months rest and no travel finally allowed him to deliver on his playoff promise.
Despite his heroics against the Grizzlies, James has shown his age since re-aggravating his foot injury at the end of February. He is not driving to the basket as often or getting to the free-throw line as much. He is shooting 18.5% on 6.8 3-point attempts per game in this series. He is picking his spots more than ever on defense. What makes his performance so incredible is also what makes the Lakers so vulnerable. There are limits to what even James can do. There is a track meet coming in the next round, and he has a bum foot.
7. Sacramento Kings
Tied with Golden State Warriors, 2-2
The Kings ended a 16-season playoff drought, so everything should be gravy from here on out. Except, they secured a No. 3 seed and home-court advantage, which comes with some additional pressure. The reigning champion Warriors, their neighbors to the southwest, add more weight. Let us not lose sight of what these young Kings have accomplished. Playoff basketball is back in Sacramento, and the city's Kings have given it two home wins already. There is no shame in losing to the Warriors, but there is pride in challenging them.
6. Cleveland Cavaliers
Trail the New York Knicks, 3-1
Do we need to have a Donovan Mitchell conversation if the Cavaliers fold in this series? New York and Cleveland vied for Mitchell's services in the offseason, and the Cavs met Utah's asking price. Now, the Knicks are putting the screws to Cleveland, and Mitchell has been underwhelming against them in Madison Square Garden. He has had some incredible individual playoff games, but the totality of his postseason career has more shortcomings than successes. The narrative was completely reversed during the regular season, when Mitchell was working toward an All-NBA selection, and it could flip again if he resurrects.
Even if the Cavaliers lose this season, they should be confident in their approach. Evan Mobley's struggles can be chalked up to development. Darius Garland is 23 years old. It is the wing position that needs to be upgraded, and that will not shake the core of this roster. It is exciting, actually, to think of what might be.
5. Memphis Grizzlies
Trail the Los Angeles Lakers, 3-1
For all their bravado during the regular season and after their Game 2 win, the Grizzlies are in danger of fizzling out in the playoffs again after a second consecutive 50-win season. As was the case last year, Ja Morant's susceptibility to injury is hurting Memphis when it matters most. He was clearly bothered by a bump to his already bruised shooting hand midway through the third quarter of Game 4. It does not help that Memphis is also without Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke to counter the Lakers' size up front.
Still, this series could easily be 3-1 the other way if the Grizzlies maintained their poise. But it is not, and they are not. Memphis is not going away any time soon. Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane are all under 25 years old, and the roster around them is filled with talent developing on the same trajectory. But a loss to the Lakers should make Memphis question whether it wants Dillon Brooks and his antics to have any influence over its identity. He is a free agent at season's end, and the Grizzlies are in desperate need of veteran guidance, unless they develop it on their own in rapid response to the Lakers' leadership.
4. Milwaukee Bucks
Trail the Miami Heat, 3-1
The Bucks have the talent to beat the Heat without the injured Antetokounmpo. After malfunctioning against Miami in the bubble, Milwaukee has won a ring, held out hope an injury to Khris Middleton cost them their title defense and pocketed another excuse with the absence of Antetokounmpo in this series.
There is luck in health, and you can always roll the dice with a 58-win team. Then again, the Bucks have had a perennial MVP candidate at his apex, and they are in danger of falling shy of expectations for a fourth time in five years. Mike Budenholzer's coaching job may be on the line in this series, and more expansive roster reconstruction could be on the horizon. Antetokounmpo has two years left on his contract after this season, when the clock will start ticking on Milwaukee's ability to keep his championship desires satiated.
Fair warning, though: The Bucks can absolutely erase a 3-1 series deficit with a healthy Antetokounmpo.
3. Los Angeles Clippers
Trail the Phoenix Suns, 3-1
It is hard to believe the Leonard and George partnership is four years in the making. Unless they return to the court before the Suns eliminate their Clippers, they will have finished one season together physically healthy — in the bubble, where they were mentally weary and blew a 3-1 lead in the second round. That they are little more than the Russell Westbrook show four years into this experiment is beyond troubling.
It has to be a frustrating existence. The Clippers know they are as good as anyone if only their two stars could stay on the floor, and their competitiveness in the absence of both reaffirms that notion, except they cannot stay on the floor. Load-managed regular seasons and a high-paid supporting cast have made them nothing more than a plucky pretender. So, what do they do? Both Leonard and George are under contract next year with player options to follow, and trading them does not raise their ceiling. So, they persist.
2. Minnesota Timberwolves
Trail the Denver Nuggets, 3-1
Minnesota's trade for Rudy Gobert was an abject disaster. The poor fit on the court was made worse when Gobert punched teammate Kyle Anderson during a timeout huddle in a regular season finale that meant the difference between facing the Nuggets or the hobbled Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs. The Wolves cannot pretend to be serious about contention if they return the same roster. That means they will entertain either selling low on Gobert, if they can find a taker for his contract, or cashing in on Karl-Anthony Towns.
At the very least, this year has provided some clarity on their future: Build better around Edwards.
1. Atlanta Hawks
Trail the Boston Celtics, 3-1
The Hawks salvaged some respect with their performance in Games 3 and 4 against the Celtics, but they are bracing for an offseason shakeup when (if?) they lose to Boston. The trade for Dejounte Murray was the sort of go-for-it move that was supposed to protect Trae Young's defensive deficiencies in the backcourt and propel Atlanta back to contention in the East. Now, two years after Young led the Hawks to a second conference finals appearance in the last 50 years, his four-year max contract could be on the trading block.
