NBA playoffs 2023: Sixers vs. Nets series prediction

noah levick

Fri, Apr 14, 2023, 9:12 AM·4 min read

Our prediction for Sixers-Nets series in Round 1 of the playoffs originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia

Mikal Bridges’ first of 27 games with the Nets just so happened to come against his hometown Sixers on Feb. 11.

Like James Harden’s Feb. 25 Sixers debut last year, it’s a date you have to keep returning to ahead of the playoffs. Clearly, the pre-trade deadline Nets team headlined by Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving is radically different than the one the Sixers are about to face in Round 1 of the postseason, which stars 26-year-old Villanova product Bridges.

While the Nets didn’t quite win that Feb. 11 game, the final margin was very slim. Spencer Dinwiddie hoisted a game-tying three-point attempt from the Brooklyn logo and drained it … a fraction or two of a second after the final buzzer.

“Their switching bothered us a little bit, I thought,” Sixers head coach Doc Rivers said minutes later. “I thought (Nets head coach Jacque Vaughn) had those guys flying around the floor, playing good basketball. … They’re long. That’s a big, long basketball team, and all of them can shoot. All of them can defend, and it bothered us early on.”

The Sixers squeaked by mostly because they did well defensively switching everything late, eliminated their early-game defensive rebounding problems (Brooklyn grabbed seven offensive boards in the first quarter, zero over the final 11 minutes), and successfully leaned on their stars down the stretch. Joel Embiid scored 37 points and James Harden had 29 on a night the Sixers shot just 6 for 23 from three-point range.

Embiid only registered two assists, though both he and Rivers were fully aware that could’ve been a substantially higher number if Tobias Harris (1 for 9 from the floor), Tyrese Maxey (4 for 11) and De’Anthony Melton (0 for 3) had made shots they normally convert.

The MVP favorite big man spoke at length postgame about why he’s focused on making the “right play” this season even when his teammates aren’t hitting jumpers.

“I’ve just got to keep trusting them and make sure they feel good about getting the ball and getting those shots,” Embiid said. “It’s only going to make my job easier. If I can trust them and they can make those shots, then it becomes hard to double. If you’ve got to play me 1-on-1, good luck.”

There are plenty of reasons for Embiid to maintain trust in his teammates, one of which is that the Sixers led the NBA with a 38.7 three-point percentage. President of basketball operations Daryl Morey also prioritized two-way players in aiming to build a better team than last year. Brooklyn will send aggressive double teams at Embiid, but there won’t typically be a player the Nets should feel great about leaving wide open. And even when players like Melton or Jalen McDaniels aren’t in a shooting groove, they’ve got other avenues to remain playable and even have positive impacts. Melton can still help through his disruptive defense and offensive rebounding, McDaniels through his sharp cutting and all-around athleticism.

Brooklyn’s Feb. 11 starting lineup has remained its first-choice five. When the Nets have opened with Dinwiddie, Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Nic Claxton, they’ve gone 11-13. That unit has a plus-3.2 net rating, per Cleaning the Glass.

Are there ways Brooklyn could dramatically outperform that brief, unexceptional track record? Absolutely. Bridges has turned into a dangerous scorer, Joe Harris and Seth Curry are capable of big shooting games off the bench, and the Sixers could pay if they’re not sufficiently crisp against the Nets’ persistent switches and traps.

And as Rivers highlighted Thursday, Brooklyn shouldn’t feel the weight of any expectations.

“It was almost, for some of the guys, a Get Out of Jail Free card,” Rivers recalled. “They were playing so free and loose. But in some ways, that hasn’t changed. They’re still playing that way. … But now they’ve got sets and they know more stuff, and so that makes them much tougher.”

While the Nets may indeed not be an easy out, the Sixers have a sizable top-end talent advantage here thanks to Embiid and Harden. Those two combined to shoot 21 for 22 at the foul line on Feb. 11, while Brooklyn was 11 for 13 as a team.

Because of the Sixers' star duo, the team appears to have many routes to a series win that don't involve anything close to perfection.

Our prediction: Sixers in five.