NBA now saying its data does not show load management reduces injuries
The NBA has made a spin move Giannis Antetokounmpo would be proud of.
Back in February at the All-Star Game, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver defended the practice of load management.
"You see, I hesitate to weigh in on an issue as to whether players are playing enough because there is real medical data and scientific data about what's appropriate," Silver said in Salt Lake City. "The suggestion that these men… somehow should just be out there more… I don't buy into. This year we're going to likely break the all-time record for ticket sales. We're likely going to have the all-time record for season-ticket renewals. So our fans aren't necessarily suggesting that they're that upset with the product that we're presenting.”
Then the league started negotiating new national television broadcast rights.
Fans at large had not been happy with the explosion of load management around the NBA, but it was when the league heard from unhappy broadcast partners as they started to renegotiate a new national television rights deal that the NBA's tune changed.
Soon after came the new Player Participation Policy, limiting when healthy All-Star level players can be held out (and limiting teams with multiple such players from having them all rest on the same night). Then on Wednesday came these comments from Joe Dumars — the former Bad Boy Piston who is now the league's executive vice president of basketball operations — during a conference call with media members (hat tip The Athletic).
"Before, it was a given conclusion that the data showed that you had to rest players a certain amount, and that justified them sitting out. We've gotten more data, and it just doesn't show that resting, sitting guys out correlates with lack of injuries, or fatigue, or anything like that. What it does show is maybe guys aren't as efficient on the second night of a back-to-back.”
Four quick thoughts here.
First, the NBA needs to show its work. Teams did not pull their data on rest impacting both levels of play and injuries out of thin air. If the league is going to say all these teams are wrong, they need to make the data public and allow a debate on their findings and methodology.
Second, even if the league does put forward numbers, it's impossible for teams to prove "resting Player X prevented this injury." It's trying to prove a negative. We know teams believe it works and can point to things like Tom Thibodeau's time in Chicago as what can happen if players are ground down during the regular season.
Third, Dumars said there needs to be a change in culture in the league where "every player should want to play 82 games.”
Here's where Dumars misses the point: Players want to be out there — load management is primarily team driven. Not always, but mostly. Teams see it as trying to protect their $200 million investments and have those players peaking for the playoffs because that's what fans say they care most about (via social media and television ratings). Plus, not performing in the playoffs is how coaches and GMs lose their jobs (ask Mike Budenholzer, who was let go from the Bucks last summer after a league-best 58-win season).
Ask stars such as Damian Lillard, Stephen Curry, LeBron James and others about being load managed and they are generally not happy about it. That hasn't stopped things. Across the league teams have expanded their training staffs and added analytics-driven systems designed to tell when a player is fatigued and more prone to injury. Teams use that data to force players to take the night off (going so far at points as to hide their shoes).
The new player participation policy may cause some changes to that, although look for teams to find loopholes and ways around it.
Fourth, load management is an issue with fans. There are countless stories of fans traveling a long distance to see their favorite player — or saving up to buy a ticket to see him in his one visit to a town — only for the player to be in street clothes being rested. In a streaming world of infinite entertainment choices and cord cutting it's far from the only reason regular season ratings have taken a hit (and not the primary one). Still, it is a genuine perception problem for the league. If teams make it look like they don't care about the regular season, why should fans?
This debate is not over. Last season's MVP, Joel Embiid, played in 66 games, missing 16 (enough to qualify for postseason awards under the new CBA). He also ran 144.8 miles during the season, the equivalent of running five-and-a-half marathons on a hardwood floor, which takes a serious toll on the human body. There's a balance to be struck between the league's needs and the health of players.
The league's sudden turn doesn't seem interested in that nuance and balance. It does feel interested in maximizing revenue, a reminder that at the end of the day the NBA is a business.
