NASCAR Cup Series at COTA: Best bets for the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix
After one of the wildest NASCAR Cup Series races at Bristol, we are going road course racing in the Lone Star State for the first time in 2024 this Sunday (3:30 p.m. ET on FOX). Circuit of the Americas (COTA) is the first of five road courses on the schedule, and this 20-turn, 3.41 mile track is back for its fourth consecutive season.
While road course racing remains unique, parity amongst the field has become more significant. Gone are the days of the typical "road course ringer" as we have seen more and more drivers emerge with elite talent on this type of track. It is also important to note that NASCAR is reimplementing cautions at the end of each stage, something the series did without for the majority of last season. This will reset the field for the ensuing restarts like we typically see on a race weekend.
Tyler Reddick (+450) is the defending champion and heavy favorite to win again this year. Outside of two trips to Sonoma and a stop on the streets of Chicago, Reddick owns a road course average finish of 4.5 including three wins since 2022. Chase Elliott (+750) follows suit with seven road course wins in his career. Elliott did not run this race last year due to being sidelined by injury, but he continues to be one of the best when turning left...and right. There are not many weeks where I bet the favorite, but this race runs through Reddick, and I don't see his price getting any longer as the week progresses.
Shane van Gisbergen (+900) makes his first Cup Series start of the season. The talent cannot be denied after winning on the streets of Chicago in his first ever NASCAR start last season, but I do believe there is a public overreaction resulting in such a short price. He was able to follow up that win with a 10th-place finish at Indianapolis, and I think a top-10 is more realistic than an outright win. There are other drivers showing greater value in my opinion, so I would tread lightly if you are interested in betting SVG.
Here's who I have my eye on prior to practice and qualifying for this upcoming weekend (odds as of Wednesday, March 20).
William Byron +1000
Byron profiles to be a strong contender after a fifth-place effort at COTA last season. His average finish of 7.2 on road courses paced the field in 2023, closing the season with a win at Watkins Glen and a runner-up finish at the Charlotte Roval. He was the closest driver to Tyler Reddick's dominance here last season, so look for the No. 24 to unload fast and run well.
Ross Chastain +1200
Chastain is one of three drivers who are two-for-two at finishing in the top five at COTA in the Next Gen car, with Tyler Reddick and Alex Bowman being the others. A former COTA winner in 2022, Chastain has figured this place out better than most. His average starting position of 16th makes me willing to wait on betting him outright at this price until cars hit the track, especially when you factor in the speed, or lack thereof, Chevrolet has shown in recent weeks. I would be more interested in +1400 or longer pre p/q if you can find it, but Chastain (and Trackhouse as a whole) should not be overlooked at COTA.
A.J. Allmendinger +1500
Allmendinger is back on a part-time Cup Series schedule in 2024, do not let that dissuade you. His road course ability is as good as any Cup Series regular. I am especially surprised to see his price so long in comparison to Shane van Gisbergen. I most certainly prefer Allmendinger in this spot.
His results at COTA are not indicative of how this team has run. He was wiped out from the lead on the final lap in 2022 and was a victim of late-race chaos while running top ten last year. However, in three trips to COTA in the Xfinity Series, he has two wins and a runner-up finish. If Allmendinger can avoid any drama in the closing laps, he has as good of a chance as anyone to win.
Chris Buescher to finish Top 10 -110
Buescher is another driver who has quietly emerged as one of the most consistent on road courses in the Cup Series. His average finish of 10.6 since 2021 trails only Chase Elliott in that span, and last year, he was a top-10 car in all but one race where he finished 11th. We've seen steady improvements out of RFK Racing over the last two weeks, and Buescher is more than capable of being a top-10 car once again.
Alex Bowman to finish Top 10 -110
Bowman is another driver who has just figured this place out with podium finishes in the last two COTA trips. While his top-five number is enticing at +300, I prefer the top ten finish for a driver that never particularly dominates, but always seems to find his way at the end. He has a bit of momentum after a fourth-place effort in Bristol, so look for the No. 48 to make some noise in Austin.
Enjoy the weekend of racing in Texas.
