NASCAR betting, odds: Kyle Larson is favored over Ryan Blaney for the Cup Series title
Larson is the only one of the four drivers racing for the title who has won a championship
Kyle Larson is the slight favorite to win the 2023 Cup Series title.
Larson is favored ahead of Ryan Blaney, William Byron and Christopher Bell to win Sunday’s Cup Series championship race at Phoenix (3 p.m. ET, NBC). And if you’re looking to bet Larson to win the title, there’s some value to exploit at BetMGM.
The rules of Sunday’s race are pretty simple. If one of the four title-contending drivers wins the race, he wins the championship. If none of them win the race, the highest-finishing title contender is the champion. But that scenario has never happened. The champion has won the final race in the previous nine seasons of NASCAR’s winner-take-all playoff format.
Inexplicably, Larson is +160 to win the race at BetMGM but is +175 to win the title. Every other title-contending driver has slightly higher odds to win the race than he does to win the title. If you’re looking to bet Larson, bet him to win the championship. If you’re eyeing another driver to win the title, consider betting him to win the race unless you think this is the year the streak ends.
Larson is the only driver of the four who has previously won a Cup Series title and one of just two who have raced for a championship before. Larson won the 2021 Cup Series championship, while Bell is making his second consecutive appearance in the title race.
Blaney and Byron are the newcomers. Blaney’s previous best finish in the standings is a pair of seventh-place results at the end of 2019 and 2021, while Byron finished sixth a season ago.
Byron has had the best overall season of anyone racing for the title with six wins, 14 top-five finishes and 20 top 10s. He had to sweat at Martinsville, but he safely made it into the title race.
The first of Byron’s wins this season came in the spring at Phoenix and he’s been very good during the playoffs. Byron hasn’t finished lower than 15th in any of the first nine postseason races and got a win at Texas.
Blaney won at Martinsville and has two victories over the past five races. After just one top-10 finish in the first four races of the playoffs, Blaney hasn’t finished lower than 12th in the last five races.
Bell enters as the underdog of the four drivers. After finishing 23rd at Darlington, he hasn’t finished lower than 15th in the last eight races. He also has scored four pole positions in the playoffs. Do not be surprised in the slightest if he starts first on Sunday.
Here’s what you need to know to bet the championship race.
Cup Series title odds
Kyle Larson (+175)
Ryan Blaney (+225)
William Byron (+275)
Christopher Bell (+375)
Race favorites
Kyle Larson (+160)
Ryan Blaney (+250)
William Byron (+300)
Christopher Bell (+400)
Kevin Harvick (+1400)
Tyler Reddick (+1600)
Harvick is in this group as he enters the final race weekend of his Cup Series career before moving to the broadcast booth in 2024. Harvick has nine wins in 41 starts at Phoenix and is the only driver with an average finish inside the top 10 (8.6). Byron has six top-10 finishes in 11 starts, while Blaney has finished in the top 10 in two-thirds of his 15 starts.
Larson has one win, seven top fives and 11 top 10s in 18 starts at Phoenix. Bell has four top 10s in seven starts. We’re a little confused why Reddick’s odds are so good. He has a pair of third-place finishes at Phoenix but both of those have come in the spring.
Good mid-tier value
Denny Hamlin (+2000)
Martin Truex Jr. (+2500)
Hamlin has two wins in 36 starts and has the third-best average finish of any driver at the track. Truex has just one win in 35 starts but it feels perfect for the way his postseason went if he had the best run of the fall right after he was eliminated.
Don’t bet this driver
Chase Briscoe (+4000)
Briscoe has a win and three top 10s in five starts at Phoenix and was strong at Martinsville. But he’s not high on our list of spoiler candidates.
Looking for a long shot?
Kyle Busch (+5000)
Busch has the second-best average finish behind Harvick and has three wins. The playoffs have been an abject disaster for Busch and Richard Childress Racing. But Phoenix is a good place for a rebound heading into 2024.
