Mullens, Dobbs or Hall? Making the case for each as Vikings starting QB
The Minnesota Vikings are in quite the situation right now.
After losing 30-24 to the Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon, the Vikings playoff and quarterback situation is not what you would consider to be in a great place.
Nick Mullens played relatively well on Sunday but seven turnover-worthy plays despite using really good decision-making raises a lot of questions about how successful you can be with him under center.
The other options are Josh Dobbs (who you already benched) and rookie Jaren Hall who suffered a concussion on his second series in his only start.
Head coach Kevin O’Connell didn’t name a starter for the week 17 game against the Green Bay Packers but did say they were evaluating all three options. Who would be the best option for the Vikings? Let’s look at all three.
Nick Mullens
Make no mistake about it, Mullens has not been what you would call a great quarterback in his two starts. However, you can’t exactly call him a bad one either.
You know what you are going to get with Mullens: a backup level quarterback who gives you short bursts of high-end quarterback play. He did that against both the Cincinnati Bengals and Detroit Lions. The analytics and basic stats behind his performance highlight that.
69.5 completion percentage
797 yards
4 big-time throws (4.7%)
9 turnover worthy plays (9.4%)
11.5 yards aDOT
23.3 pressure to sack rate
He’s a true wild card in terms of what you are going to get from him but the stretches where you get really good play from him. Against the Lions, the Vikings had three touchdown drives of 70+ yards where Mullens was slinging the ball all over the field.
The real problem isn’t in his decision-making. It’s his arm talent. Mullens is making good decisions but isn’t executing the throws. All four of his interceptions against the Lions were poor throws where he made a good read. You can’t get away with that consistently in the National Football League.
Overall, this is exactly what you would expect with Mullens. His big-time throw rate to turnover-worthy play rate is 1:2. You can ask him to win a game or two for you, but limiting the interceptions (29 to his 31 touchdowns) is the key and he hasn’t done that.
Josh Dobbs
The Dobbs conundrum is an interesting one.
The Vikings benched him two weeks prior during the fourth quarter of the game against the Las Vegas Raiders but it wasn’t all his fault. Receivers dropped six passes that day with only two of them in his first four games with the Vikings.
If you were to put Dobbs back behind center, what would change? Would they have a different package in there for Dobbs? Is he going to all of the sudden figure out better timing with the route concepts in this offense? Even with an extra three weeks of studying the playbook, Dobbs will have had limited practice reps, especially with his presence as the third quarterback behind Hall. It would be a tough sell to flip flop for the Vikings.
Jaren Hall
The player that everybody has been talking about on the Vikings roster is Hall.
A fifth-round pick this past April, Hall did get the start against the Atlanta Falcons in week nine. It only lasted two drives as Hall sustained a concussion and Dobbs mania ensued. It’s also worth noting that Hall wouldn’t have gotten the start if it weren’t for the back injury Mullens had that landed him on injured reserve, which is why Hall hasn’t gotten a start since.
What did we see from Hall during that time? We saw a quarterback who didn’t look flustered by the speed of the game and looked comfortable running the offense. In his two appearances, Hall completed 8-of-10 passes for 101 yards and no turnovers nor turnover-worthy plays. It’s a very small sample size but that’s where the intrigue lies. Because you don’t have an answer on what he is, why not try to find out?
What should they do?
The answer to this question is complicated for many reasons.
First, the Vikings culture is all about trying to win the game. That’s what they have strived for each and every week. It’s one of the reasons why I believe Hall hasn’t gotten a serious look after the success of Dobbs and Mullens getting healthy.
What has changed now? Well, for starters Mullens hasn’t exactly played great and the injuries are mounting up like crazy. Can you make an argument that Hall is genuinely the best option right now to try and win the next two games? From an outside perspective, I think you can. Will the Vikings do that come Sunday against the Packers? That remains to be seen, but it’s time to turn the focus to next year and try something new at quarterback to both try and win now and see if it can help now.
Conclusion: Jaren Hall
The Real Forno Show
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