Mountain West Football: Separating Contenders From Pretenders After One Month
Mountain West Football: Separating Contenders From Pretenders After One Month
Four weeks into the season, we re-examine what the race to the Mountain West championship could look like over the next two months.
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Not quite what was expected.
Also-rans
Colorado State
Things haven’t come together as planned at Fort Air Raid. The Rams have scored a meager 10.8 points per game, ahead of only UMass among FBS teams, and averaged 4.03 yards per play, which ranks 129th in the country, while quarterback Clay Millen has been battered week after week to the point that he finally got knocked out of the contest with Sacramento State in Week 4.
It isn’t all doom and gloom in Fort Collins, as Tory Horton, Mohamed Kamara, and Jack Howell have all shined despite the difficult circumstances, but it may serve CSU fans well to recall that head coach Jay Norvell had to absorb a 3-9 campaign in his first year at Nevada back in 2017, too, before the Wolf Pack got on track.
Hawaii
It’s been a bumpy ride for Timmy Chang’s Warriors in the first month of his tenure, with a win over Duquesne and lopsided losses to Michigan, New Mexico State, Vanderbilt, and Western Kentucky by an average of 37.5 points. Running back Dedrick Parson has been a bright spot on offense, but no one could have predicted it would take five games for Hawaii to secure its first passing touchdown.
The defense, meanwhile, has been active about getting its hands on the football with seven takeaways in five games, but they also rank 128th among FBS teams in allowing 7.33 yards per play to date. It’s not out of the question they could steal another win or two against other also-rans in conference play, but it may just as easily be a long Year Zero on the islands.
Nevada
It was nice while it lasted, but the Wolf Pack have come back to earth with a three-game losing streak in which they’ve posted a not-so-nice -69 point differential. While they’re still tied for first in the Mountain West with 11 total takeaways, Nevada has been shut out on that front in the last two games, as well.
Don’t mistake the diminishing returns for bottoming all the way out like others in the Mountain West, though. Nate Cox appears to be the answer at quarterback while the running back duo of Toa Taua and Devonte Lee has been solid, but the explosiveness on offense just hasn’t been there yet with only 13 plays of 20 or more yards in five games. Dom Peterson has continued to ball out as expected, too, while the secondary has at least proven it can be opportunistic, so the Wolf Pack have at least a few things going for them which could lead to a surprising result or two in the next couple months.
New Mexico
Of all the teams in this part of the column, the Lobos are the likeliest candidate to be a real headache for those expected to contend. That’s because, even after being drubbed by LSU in Week 4, UNM still ranks 69th in the country by defensive SP+. For the sake of context, San Diego State currently sits at 56th on that side of the ball while Fresno State is 80th.
The bigger question is whether the offense will ever come around. In terms of offensive SP+, the Lobos are dead last in the country; if you prefer yards per play, UNM is 126th after four games with an average of 4.21. Their running game has flashed potential here and there, most notably from Sherod White and Christian Washington, but it’ll take a group effort to truly play the spoiler role.
Fringe Contenders
Boise State
Broncos fans who hoped for a strong rebound have been left wanting after four games, with a pair of double-digit wins over New Mexico and UT Martin offset by 17-point losses to Oregon State and UTEP. The latter defeat prompted a change on the sidelines this past weekend, when Tim Plough was replaced as offensive coordinator by former Broncos head coach Dirk Koetter.
The offensive struggles have erased a lot of the good work done by a defense that’s battled injuries in the first month to key contributors like Ezekiel Noa and Tyreque Jones. Boise State leads the Mountain West with 4.66 yards per play allowed, a 26.4% third-down conversion rate allowed, and a 33.3% touchdown rate allowed in the red zone, among other things, and they already have a division win in hand. If the coaching change provides the hoped-for shot in the arm, they aren’t that far away from being back in control within the Mountain.
San Diego State
It’s business as usual on the Mesa, but the formula that led to a 12-win season in 2021 was always bound to lead to some regression and the Aztecs have struggled against quality offenses so far. After leading the Mountain West by allowing 4.74 yards per play last year, SDSU is currently fourth at 5.44 YPP through four games in 2022. The secondary has remained active with 20 passes defended, but the unit hasn’t elite as they were a year ago, which explains why they’ve slid from 27th in preseason defensive SP+ projections to 56th after four weeks. Good, but not great.
It hasn’t helped, either, that Braxton Burmeister has played like one of the worst quarterbacks in the conference, completing only 53.1% of his passes for a pitiful 3.6 yards per attempt despite being asked to throw just 16 times per game. The lone saving grace has been a running game that’s been boom-or-bust, with 26 plays of ten or more yards despite a committee approach that’s yielded mixed results. It’s a tightrope that they’ve walked before, but it’s anyone’s guess as to whether the rest of the season will look more like last year, when the Aztecs won the West, or like 2018, when they won just seven games.
Utah State
Okay, hear me out.
Utah State’s title defense has been a disaster thus far, with a closer-than-expected win over UConn followed by wipeouts against both Alabama and Weber State. The Aggies showed signs of life in opening Mountain West play against UNLV, but a lack of discipline and far too many backbreaking turnovers proved to be the difference in a ten-point loss at home.
After four games, Utah State ranks seventh in the Mountain West with 4.72 yards per play on offense and sixth in allowing 5.59 YPP on defense. However, they’re also 11th in scoring 15.5 points per game, 10th on both sides of the ball in third-down conversion rate, and last in red zone conversion rate, giveaways, and penalties per game. It isn’t a totally unsalvageable situation, though: The Aggies do rank first in tackles for loss per game and have seven takeaways in four games, while the offensive line has done a good job of keeping Logan Bonner on his feet with just four sacks allowed.
Their biggest saving grace, at least for right now, is that they have not yet played a division game in conference play, either, and won’t until after dealing with BYU on September 29. The margin for error is close to zero, but it isn’t actually zero… yet.
Real Contenders
Air Force
The Falcons underwhelmed two weeks ago on the road at Wyoming, but in terms of looking like the most complete team in the Mountain West on the whole, Air Force has a very convincing case after four weeks. They’ve dispatched bad teams, as good teams should expect to, thanks to a powerful running game that has averaged 6.68 yards per carry and scored 15 touchdowns to date while the defense has bent without breaking too often: Their 5.61 yards per play allowed ranks seventh in the Mountain West, but the 16 points per game allowed ranks second.
There are yellow flags which could derail a run to the championship, though. Quarterback Haaziq Daniels hasn’t been quite as sharp in the air and has averaged just 8.1 yards per attempt on 11-of-27 throws, while the defense has one sack and 12 tackles for loss through four games. If the Falcons can play the way they want to, they will be difficult to stop… but they aren’t infallible.
Fresno State
The preseason favorites to come out of the West division have taken a few body blows in their first three games, collapsing late at home against Oregon State and then losing both Jake Haener and Evan Williams to injury in a road blowout against USC. They’ll have the opportunity to get right against hapless UConn, but their path to the championship is murky for reasons they could not have anticipated.
Haener’s high ankle sprain could keep him out for four to six weeks, which means that he could miss key games against Boise State, San Jose State, and San Diego State and will make backup Logan Fife an athlete with gigantic shoes to fill. The upside? If he can hold the line, the Bulldogs have been more or less as advertised on both sides of the ball, averaging 6.86 yards per play on offense (second in the Mountain West) and allowing 6.58 YPP to the Beavers and Trojans. It doesn’t seem like there are that many offenses in the conference on that same level, so it’s right there for the taking if Fresno State can beat back the injury bug.
San Jose State
After three games, the Spartans might be the least talked-about team in the Mountain West, but there’s evidence to suggest that they’re building toward something. They survived a scare at home against Portland State, then pieced together a scare of their own on the road at Auburn and won going away against Western Michigan, seeing major improvements on both offense and defense against the Broncos.
Chevan Cordeiro has been his usual self, third in the conference with 272.3 yards of total offense per game in the young season, but much will depend on whether Kairee Robinson can build off of his performance against WMU and if the offense as a whole can improve in the red zone. The Spartans have just five touchdowns in 14 trips inside the 20-yard line, a 35.71% that bests only Colorado State in the conference. One way or another, we’ll find out quickly whether SJSU has staying power since they open conference play with a home date against UNLV that is sandwiched around road trips to Wyoming and Fresno State.
UNLV
There’s no doubt the Rebels have been the surprise of the young season, overcoming a disappointing road loss at Cal to post convincing wins over Idaho State, North Texas, and Utah State. UNLV ranks third on offense and defense by yards per play earned and allowed and, more importantly, pace the Mountain West with 39.5 points per game.
Marcus Arroyo’s team has done just about everything that could be asked of them at this point, but the much-improved offense, in particular, hasn’t really been tested outside of their contest with the Golden Bears: UNT and USU rank 118th and 111th, respectively, by defensive SP+ after four games. There are plenty of potential crucibles ahead, including home dates with Air Force and Fresno State and road contests at San Jose State and San Diego State, but it’s probably safe to say these aren’t the Rebels you once knew.
Wyoming
In spite of the off-season transfer portal defections, the Cowboys have held tough and, for the most part, haven’t looked much different from other Wyoming teams of recent vintage.
One potential caveat? They haven’t exactly run away from the FBS opponents they’ve beaten so far and they’re the only team in the Mountain West with two wins by one score. Quarterback Andrew Peasley has been solid if not spectacular, but the running game hasn’t been quite as effective yet as it has been in years past since Titus Swen is averaging 4.8 yards per carry after managing 5.95 YPC in 2021. The defense hasn’t been consistent, either, though a young and retooled front six, led by DeVonne Harris and Oluwaseyi Omotosho, has demonstrated some pass rushing potential that could pay dividends as the season progresses.
If we haven’t seen peak Wyoming, though, there will be plenty of opportunities ahead in what is, on paper, a friendly path through the conference play in October. With home dates against San Jose State and Utah State and road trips to New Mexico and Hawaii on deck, the Cowboys could make a run to the Mountain division crown.
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