MLB Team Roundup: Boston Red Sox
Cole, Strider highlight top 10 fantasy starters
D.J. Short and Eric Samulski reveal their top 10 fantasy baseball starting pitchers for 2024 and discuss the order in which they should be ranked.
2023 record: 78-84 (.481)
Fifth Place, AL East
Team ERA: 4.52 (21st)
Team OPS: .748 (9th)
What Went Right
The Red Sox offense was among the top ten in baseball for a good chunk of the season before completely collapsing in September. On the season, Boston ranked 6th in batting average, 9th in OPS, 16th in wRC+, 17th in stolen bases, and 18th in home runs, so there is a decent amount of good to discuss, even if they finished as just an average offense across the board.
The signing of Justin Turner was tremendous. The veteran hit .276 with 23 home runs, 86 runs and 96 RBI in 146 games. He was primarily a DH, but he slid in to play 1B and 2B when Boston needed. He has a $13 million player option which he might decline based on the success he had this year. The addition of Masataka Yoshida was also a good one. Although the Japanese star admitted to wearing down at the end of a long MLB season, he still hit .289 with 15 home runs, 71 runs, 72 RBI and eight steals. His defense left something to be desired, which is a bit of a concern, but it would be logical to expect growth from him in his second year in a new league and new country.
The Red Sox also got their consistent strong production from Rafael Devers (.271, 33 home runs, 90 runs, 100 RBI, five steals); however, the most important thing that went right for the Red Sox offense was the growth of their young talent. Triston Casas had a rough start to the year but was one of the AL’s best first baseman from May 1st on, hitting .291/.385/.531 with 21 home runs, 53 runs scored, and 57 RBI in 107 games. Jarren Duran worked himself back into the team’s plans by hitting .295 with eight home runs, 46 runs, 40 RBI, and 24 steals in 102 games. Both of the young players Boston got back for Christian Vazquez last year also intrigued in short stints with Wilyer Abreu hitting .316/.388/.474 with two home runs and three steals in 85 plate appearances, and Emmanuel Valdez hitting .266/.311/.453 with six home runs and five steals in 149 plate appearances.
On the pitching side, not much went right, but the Red Sox were able to build a solid bullpen after years of poor performance. Kenley Jansen saved 29 games and pitched to a 3.63 ERA and 10.48 K/9. Chris Martin was exceptional in a setup role, throwing 51.1 innings with a 1.05 ERA. Josh Winckowski and Kutter Crawford were also great in multi-innings roles before Crawford had to be shifted to the rotation to help offset some injuries.
The Red Sox also saw solid growth from Brayan Bello, who posted a 4.24 ERA in 157 innings, but more on him later.
What Went Wrong
The Red Sox fired general manager Chaim Bloom after the season, which is usually an indication that the season didn’t go well. However, one could argue Bloom did exactly what the team wanted him to do, which was rebuild the farm system and keep the team competitive enough while not spending too much as they reset their window of championship potential.
The starting rotation was a mess for Boston. The Corey Kluber signing was horrible with the veteran registering a 7.04 ERA in 55 innings across nine starts and six bullpen appearances. Garrett Whitlock got hurt again and finished with a 5.15 ERA in 71.2 innings but might be better suited for the bullpen, while Tanner Houck also battled injuries as he tried to secure a rotation spot and finished with a 5.01 ERA in 106 innings.
Chris Sale also battled injuries again, pitching just 102.2 innings with a 4.30 ERA, which is not what Boston had in mind for its high-priced ace, while James Paxton looked great early on before he too got hurt and finished with a 4.50 ERA in 96 innings.
Lastly, Nick Pivetta was great for the Red Sox as a bulk reliever but had to operate as a traditional starter far too often and put up a 4.66 ERA with 105 strikeouts in 87 innings as a starter, compared to a 3.07 ERA with 78 strikeouts in 57.2 innings as a reliever.
Aside from the rotation, the biggest hole for the Red Sox was in the middle infield. Trevor Story returned over the summer and looked good in the field but hit just .203/.259/.315 with three home runs and 10 steals in 43 games. Meanwhile, the rest of the middle infield was a mix of Valdez, Pablo Reyes, Christian Arroyo, Yu Chang, Luis Urias, and Enrique Hernandez before Arroyo was cut and Hernandez was traded. While some of those players flashed at times, it's not a collection of names that should be consistent starters on a team with title aspirations.
Fantasy Slants
** I mentioned Casas' stats from May 1st on, but wanted to provide fantasy context for that. Among first baseman, Casas' performance from May on ranked him 4th in OPS, 5th in wRC+, 6th in home runs, 6th in batting average, 20th in runs, and 21st in RBI. If the team context improves with the Red Sox lineup getting a bit deeper or adding another impact bat then Casas could very well come into the 2024 season as a top seven or eight first base option.
**Alex Verdugo had his worst season as an MLB regular, hitting .264/.324/.421 with 13 home runs, 81 runs scored, 54 RBI, and five steals in 142 games. He was also benched by Red Sox manager Alex Cora on two separate occasions for performance/attitude reasons. Verdugo remains an elite contact hitter, with just a 15.4% strikeout rate, but he has not yet progressed to provide anything for fantasy other than a high batting average. If that average dips, as it did this year, there's not much he brings to our teams.
** While Chris Sale didn't have the best season from his surface-level stats, there should be some optimism for him heading into 2024. Sale's fastball averaged 94.2 mph, which was his highest since 2018. He also posted a 29.4% strikeout rate, a 22.6% K-BB%, 30.4% CSW, and 13.2% swinging strike rate, which suggest that he's still missing bats at a solid clip. He's 34-years-old and hasn't thrown 150 innings since 2018, so there are clearly some factors that will keep his draft cost down, but his performance suggests that the 3.72 xFIP and 3.50 SIERA may be better indicators of his actual talent level, and he could still provide fantasy managers with solid performance when healthy.
** Brayan Bello seemed to tire down the stretch and pitched to a 7.62 ERA in his last 26 innings. However, some of that is to be expected since he hit his career high in innings in his first full season as an MLB starter. What's intriguing is that, despite those struggles, Bello was evolving as a pitcher at the end of the year. For much of the year, he relied on a sinker and elite changeup to induce soft contact and keep his ratios in check, but he didn't have a true swing and miss pitch other than his change-up. Yet, Bello also started to tweak his slider in the second half of the year, almost tripling the amount of horizontal movement. In September, that new slider had a 21.4% swinging strike rate and 2.21 dERA (Defense Independent ERA). If we get early season Brayan Bello with a swing-and-miss slider, he's going to make a big leap next year.
** In September, the Red Sox also saw the MLB debut of Ceddanne Rafaela, their exciting 23-year-old outfielder. Rafaela hit .302/.349/.520 with 20 home runs and 36 steals in 108 games across Double-A and Triple-A before getting called up to Boston. In his 89 MLB plate appearances, he hit .241/.281/.386 with two home runs and three steals. The Red Sox also played him at shortstop, second base, and center field. Where he plays in the field will determine if he starts with the big league club or what other moves the Red Sox make to their lineup, but Rafaela is one of the AL's better prospects and should be up for the whole season or the vast majority of it in 2024.
** Boston’s 2023 first round pick, Kyle Teel, made it all the way to Double-A in his first pro season which leaves us to wonder just how aggressive they’ll be with their top catching prospect. In 26 games, the 21-year-old hit .363/.482/.495 with two home runs, 22 RBI, and three steals. He also had a 21:22 BB:K ratio, which speaks to his advanced plate discipline. He was one of the more advanced hitting and catching prospects coming out of the University of Virginia this year, so it's possible the Red Sox allow him to start at Double-A next year with the chance to push for a mid-season call-up to share catching duties with Connor Wong.
**Roman Anthony put himself on the map with a tremendous 2023 season. The 19-year-old vaulted up prospect lists after hitting .272/.403/.466 with 14 home runs and 16 steals across 106 games in the minors. He now ranks 35th at MLB Pipeline and 45th in Keith Law's rankings. He's likely not on the radar for 2024, but perhaps he could push for a late-season call-up.
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Key Free Agents
James Paxton, Adam Duvall, Adaberto Mondesi, Corey Kluber ($11 million team option, likely declined), Justin Turner ($13.4 million player option)
Team Needs
With Bloom out and the farm system restocked, the next GM in Boston will be expected to win a World Series and soon. The Red Sox will be big spenders this off-season but on who is the big question. Early indications are that the Red Sox will be one of the teams heavily interested in Japanese ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto as well as Shohei Ohtani. Could the Red Sox also be in on Aaron Nola, Julio Urias, Lucas Giolito, or Blake Snell? Could they trade for Corbin Burnes who’s on an expiring deal? The Red Sox have countless avenues to reshape the top end of their roster.
How the Red Sox fill out the rotation will help to determine what roles Whitlock, Houck, and Pivetta enter the season with.
The other big question is how the outfield shakes out. Right now, the Red Sox have too many names for their four spots with Verdugo, Yoshida, Abreu, Rafaela, and Duran all making a case for spots, as well as 26-year-old David Hamilton, who hit .247/.363/.438 with 17 home runs and 57 steals in 103 games at Triple-A this year. Could the Red Sox package one or more of these players in order to acquire starting pitching.
If the Red Sox do keep Yoshida around (they will), do they feel comfortable enough with him in the outfield or will he need to DH? If the plan is for him to get more DH at-bats then what does that mean for Justin Turner's return or any chances to sign Ohtani?
Lastly, the final big question for Boston will be: who plays 2B? The Red Sox rotated through tons of names in 2023. Do they let Luis Urias or Enmanuel Valdez get a crack at the job in 2024? Do they see if Rafaela can play there full time or will they bring in somebody in free agency? How those questions get answered will have a huge impact on what the 2024 Red Sox look like, but we should certainly expect this team to go back to spending big money to win a ring.
