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MLB betting: Oddsmakers expect huge year from Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

pete truszkowski
·5 min read
12

We're a little over two weeks away from the start of the MLB season. We survived the lockout and now spring training is well under way. As we gear up for the start of the season, BetMGM has released betting odds for which player will lead the league in each major statistical category.

One name that sticks out is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays. Guerrero is coming off a huge season last year with Toronto where he tied for the league lead in home runs with 48. He finished second in AL MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani. Currently, oddsmakers have Guerrero as the favorite to lead baseball in home runs, RBIs and hits. What are some other players that oddsmakers are projecting for big years?

Home Runs

As mentioned above, Vlad Guerrero Jr. is the betting favorite to lead baseball in home runs in 2022. He's currently +700 to finish atop the leaderboard. The Blue Jays' star finished tied for the league lead last season with Salvador Perez. Perez is 14-to-1 to repeat the feat this year.

The second best odds go to Pete Alonso of the Mets at 10-to-1. Over his first two full seasons as an MLB player, Alonso has 90 home runs. He led the league with 53 home runs in his rookie season in 2019.

Behind Alonso are a pair of Yankees in Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo at 13-to-1. Judge led the league in home runs in 2017, while Gallo is a prolific power hitter who should get a boost in his first full season as a left-handed hitter in Yankee Stadium.

Coming off an MVP season where he hit 46 home runs, Shohei Ohtani is also 13-to-1 to lead the league in home runs. Matt Olson, the Braves' replacement for Freddie Freeman, also comes in at 13-to-1. Mike Trout, coming off a lost season due to injury, is 14-to-1.

Hits

Two Blue Jays are favorites to lead the league in hits. Guerrero is the betting favorite at 10-to-1, but teammate Bo Bichette is right behind him at 11-to-1. Last year's hits leader, Trea Turner, is 12-to-1 to repeat the feat. The rest of the top contenders are as follows:

RBIs

As the best hitter in a loaded line-up, Vlad Guerrero Jr. is the betting favorite to lead the league in RBIs at +650. Guerrero finished tied for sixth in baseball in the category last year. Salvador Perez led the league in RBIs last year and he's 20-to-1 to repeat the feat in 2022. The rest of the leaderboard:

TORONTO, ONTARIO - OCTOBER 3: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays celebrate his home run against the Baltimore Orioles in the second inning during their MLB game at the Rogers Centre on October 3, 2021 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the favorite to lead MLB in a lot of offensive categories. (Mark Blinch/Getty Images)

Runs

Finally, a category where the favorite is someone other than Guerrero, despite the fact that he actually led the league in runs in 2021. Juan Soto is the betting favorite to lead the league in runs in 2022 with +800 odds. Right behind him? You guessed it, Vlad Guerrero at +900. Other expected contenders include:

  • Juan Soto (+800)

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+900)

  • Mookie Betts (10-to-1)

  • Trea Turner (11-to-1)

  • Ronald Acuna Jr. (12-to-1)

  • Shohei Ohtani, Bo Bichette (14-to-1)

  • Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout (16-to-1)

  • George Springer, Aaron Judge, Jose Ramirez, Jose Altuve, Rafael Devers (20-to-1)

Stolen Bases

Stolen bases are definitely down as the league continues to become more and more analytical. Adalberto Mondesi is the betting favorite to lead the league in steals at +250, but those odds certainly aren't intriguing enough when you consider his injury history. The favorites to lead the league in stolen bases are:

  • Adalberto Mondesi (+250)

  • Starling Marte, Whit Merrifield (+500)

  • Ronald Acuna Jr. (+600)

  • Trea Turner (+700)

  • Cedric Mullins (+900)

  • Fernando Tatis (10-to-1)

  • Myles Straw, Shohei Ohtani (16-to-1)

  • Jose Ramirez (20-to-1)

Pitcher wins

Has any stat in any sport become more devalued than pitcher wins? Not only does a pitcher have to be good, but his team has to score for him, his bullpen needs to be able to hold a lead for him, and he has to be allowed to pitch deep into games on a consistent basis. Gerrit Cole enters as the betting favorite to lead the league in wins at +650. Other expected contenders according to the betting odds are:

  • Gerrit Cole (+650)

  • Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer (+800)

  • Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom (+900)

  • Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios (15-to-1)

  • Corbin Burnes (18-to-1)

  • Framber Valdez, Julio Urias (20-to-1)

Strikeouts

Baseball purists do not like strikeouts, but there's no denying they are a major part of baseball in 2022. Jacob deGrom is the betting favorite to lead the league in strikeouts at +450. If deGrom stays healthy, he's a good bet. However, he missed half the season last year and didn't get surgery to repair the issue. Behind deGrom, these are the expected favorites:

  • Jacob deGrom (+450)

  • Gerrit Cole (+475)

  • Max Scherzer (+700)

  • Robbie Ray (+800)

  • Corbin Burnes (11-to-1)

  • Shane Bieber, Zack Wheeler (12-to-1)

  • Aaron Nola, Justin Verlander (13-to-1)

  • Lucas Giolito (14-to-1)

  • Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease, Walker Buehler (18-to-1)

  • Freddy Peralta, Chris Sale, Brandon Woodruff (20-to-1)