What are Mizzou softball's chances of earning a NCAA Regional berth?

For the last 15 NCAA softball tournaments, Missouri has had its spot at the table. MU has played in every regional dating back to 2007, save for the pandemic-canceled regional in 2020.

That streak is in jeopardy this season, as the Tigers await the tournament's selection day to see if their 34-24 overall record and 7-17 record in SEC play is good enough for a berth.

Missouri head coach Larissa Anderson thinks so.

"We're really strong right now in May going into postseason," Anderson said on SEC Network after the Tigers fell to Alabama 7-2. "Are we considered one of the top 64 teams in the country? I would think so."

However, that's for the NCAA to decide. Here's a look at MU softball's resume after the Tigers SEC Tournament run ended Wednesday night.

Where Mizzou stands

At 34-24 overall, Missouri received a vote in the DI Softball top 25 rankings on May 9. The Tigers finished the SEC schedule with a 7-17 record and fell to Alabama in the SEC Tournament after defeating Mississippi State.

Unlike last year, when MU went on a run to the SEC championship, Missouri will have to wait to see if they have a spot in a NCAA Regional. After hosting last season, MU will travel to a regional if the Tigers are selected. Their record and SEC standing does not equal other teams that could host this year.

What helps Mizzou

When Anderson said MU is playing its best ball of the season, she had a good point. The Tigers were fresh off a series win over Arkansas and beat Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament before taking on Alabama.

The Crimson Tide are ranked No. 13 for a reason. That doesn't take away from the two earned runs MU put up on Alabama superstar pitcher Montana Fouts, who touts a 1.46 ERA this season. The Tigers' offense couldn't keep up with the Tides'.

The late-season strides go hand in hand with the body of work MU put together in the non-conference slate.

Missouri has wins over Northwestern, Louisville, UCF and a series sweep of North Texas. Northwestern, Lousiville and UCF are all teams that were ranked, are currently ranked or are receiving votes. North Texas is a top-three Conference-USA team that could win the conference tournament.

Combine that with a series win over No. 12 Arkansas, and that shows MU's conference record isn't indicative of where the Tigers stand this season. Especially since MU has a better winning percentage than Mississippi State and Ole Miss.

Eight SEC teams are ranked in the DI Softball top 25. The conference is a juggernaut, which could mean the committee wouldn't be too harsh in viewing MU's conference record.

Missouri's rating point index, also known as RPI, which is a quantity used to rank sports teams based on their wins, losses and strength of schedule, ranks MU No. 38. That's higher than some of the predicted teams in the field, and well within the field of 64, too.

What hurts the Tigers

It took until the final week of the regular season for Missouri to win its first SEC series. Mix that with the worst SEC record in the conference this season and it'll be hard for the selection committee to overlook when discussing if Missouri belongs.

This includes the mid-season slide where Missouri went 9-14 at the beginning of SEC play and fell out of the top 25. Four of those nine wins were SEC wins, and all 14 losses were against SEC teams.

To make matters more difficult, the rest of the predicted field left Missouri ground to cover in the last few weeks of the regular season.

DI Softball, which had Missouri receive a top-25 vote in its poll, listed MU as one of its first four teams out of the tournament in its predicted field of 64 on April 21.

The Tigers have made up ground in that time, but time will tell if the Tigers have made up enough ground.

The Bottomline

MU is on the bubble, that's for sure. Still, history has been on Missouri's side with the selection committee.

Last year, there was some consideration if MU should be a regional host with the Tigers' record against others. Missouri hosted Illinois, Arizona and Missouri State.

Considering how Missouri received a top 25 vote, finished the regular season winning nine of its last 12 and has wins over top-25 Arkansas and Texas A&M in that span, the Tigers bring a compelling argument. Missouri could be one of the last four in, but that's all it takes to make the field of 64.

"We're playing our best ball now," Anderson said on SEC Network. "That's real important when looking at the best teams that go to the NCAA Tournament."

This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: What are Missouri softball's chances of earning a NCAA Regional berth?