Mississippi State basketball vs. Auburn: Score prediction as Bulldogs seek crucial SEC win
STARKVILLE — Mississippi State basketball knows the value of playing Quadrant 1 games.
Despite losses against Florida, Alabama, South Carolina and Kentucky in SEC play, MSU’s NET ranking (42) hasn’t dropped much. It was actually a win against Vanderbilt on Saturday that hurt Mississippi State (13-6, 2-4 SEC) the most because of the Commodores’ woeful play.
However, MSU has also put itself in a spot where quality losses aren’t securing its spot off the bubble. At some point, Mississippi State needs to improve its 2-4 Quad 1 record. Saturday (2:30 p.m., SEC Network) against Auburn is an opportunity to do so.
The Tigers (16-3, 5-1) sit at No. 8 in the NET. They’re coming off a 79-75 loss at rival Alabama on Wednesday, and they’re looking to avoid losing back-to-back games for the first time this season.
Mississippi State has dropped its past five contests against coach Bruce Pearl’s Tigers. Last season, in coach Chris Jans’ first at MSU, the Bulldogs lost their lone meeting with the Tigers in Auburn.
To snap its skid, Mississippi State again will be tasked with slowing down one of the nation’s top offenses.
Can Mississippi State’s defense succeed against Auburn’s offense?
Auburn sits at No. 10 in KenPom’s offensive efficiency ratings – which hasn’t boded well for MSU this season. Kentucky and Alabama are also in the top 10, and against Mississippi State, those teams combined to put up 172 points.
That comes despite Mississippi State ranking in the top 20 of defensive efficiency.
Johni Broome is the leader of Auburn’s attack, averaging a team-best 15.8 points per game on 55.6% shooting. The 6-foot-10 forward/center is accompanied by Jaylin Williams – a 6-8 forward averaging 12.2 points per game.
MSU’s ability to slow down Auburn will rely on its forwards playing clean. If Tolu Smith, Cameron Matthews and Jimmy Bell Jr. can avoid foul trouble, Mississippi State could have a chance at a crucial win. If their aggression is undisciplined, as Jans says, MSU’s depth will be tested.
With KeShawn Murphy not playing since a Jan. 6 loss at South Carolina, Mississippi State is already thin at forward.
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Score prediction
Auburn 74, Mississippi State 68: MSU is built to slow down Auburn because of the Bulldogs’ quality of interior defense. However, Mississippi State hasn’t proven it has enough weapons to give a consistent boost on offense alongside Smith and freshman guard Josh Hubbard. If someone steps up, perhaps MSU can pull off the upset.
Stefan Krajisnik is the Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion Ledger. Contact him at skrajisnik@gannett.com or follow him on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, @skrajisnik3.
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State basketball score prediction vs. Auburn in SEC clash
