Mired in last place? There's still time to make a title run

There’s an old baseball axiom: A team in first place on Memorial Day is the one that will eventually win the division.

It makes perfect sense. Excellence rises to the top, and often times it doesn’t take very long to figure out which team is clearly head-and-shoulders above the others.

But what about the teams at the bottom of the standings? Is the inverse of the Memorial Day axiom true as well?

My fantasy teams sure hope not.

At exactly 10:37 p.m. last Friday, four of my primary teams were mired in last place.

If that makes you stop reading this column immediately and wonder why you should listen to someone who’s so obviously bad at his job, I can’t say I blame you. But for those willing to continue marching into the darkness, perhaps we’ll find some light at the end of the tunnel.

LABR-ing in the early going

At the League of Alternative Baseball Reality drafts this spring, I felt reasonably confident I had put together a pair of balanced rosters with no glaring weaknesses.

The projected Fantasy Pros standings even tabbed me for first place in the NL and fourth in the AL. On paper, everything looked great – but you know the saying, “They don’t play these games on paper.” (Oh wait, that’s exactly how we play these games! But I digress …)

Unfortunately, that’s not how things have played out so far.

Despite a $173 NL offense that exceeded my projected targets in runs, homers and RBI – and with Bryce Harper returning nearly two months ahead of schedule – my hitting has been the worst in the league (with 11 of a possible 60 standings points).

In the AL, second baseman Marcus Semien and closer Felix Bautista have been the best players at their positions, but they haven’t been able to carry my team by themselves.

So what’s gone wrong?

It’s an important question to ask, especially with just one-third of the regular season in the books, because a worst-to-first turnaround might still be possible.

I had a similar situation six years ago when my AL LABR team was in last place as late as mid-June before catching fire. I’ll always have a soft spot for J.D. Martinez, who not only shook off an early-season injury to propel my AL squad to a most unlikely title, but also switched leagues in a trade-deadline deal that propelled my NL LABR team to a championship as well.

But 2017 seems like an eternity ago when I’m mired in the basement in both leagues now.

Not-so-quick fixes

I’m probably not the only one out there with teams off to horrible starts. So perhaps this can be an opportunity for us all to salvage things before all hope is lost.

The first step is diagnosing the problem(s). My offensively challenged NL LABR team is last in stolen bases while sitting at the bottom of a rather large group in the other four hitting categories. Getting more than a combined 41 games (through May 21) from Harper and Michael Harris over the next four months will go a long way toward making me more competitive.

On the pitching side, I’m first in saves (thank you, reserve-round David Robertson) but last in innings – and, predictably, strikeouts. My major investments in Max Scherzer (4.88 ERA), Joe Musgrove (6.63) and, gulp, Sean Manaea (7.81) have been abysmal. Trading either Robertson or Camilo Doval for a starter is the most obvious remedy. However, the deficit in strikeouts already seems too large for one pitcher to make up. Trying to gain ground in ERA, WHIP and even wins might be a more productive path. Cutting bait on Manaea and possibly Adam Wainwright could help those ratios even more.

In AL LABR, my expectation of a major rebound from the Chicago White Sox may not have been such a good idea after all. Outfielder Eloy Jiménez is on the injured list with just four homers. Rookie Oscar Colas was sent back to the minors. And pitcher Lucas Giolito has been fine, but he picked up just his third win on May 21.

I’m still waiting for the payoff from draft-day injury stashes Lance McCullers, Michael Brantley and Adalberto Mondesi.

My best hope is an offensive surge from the Minnesota Twins, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton in particular. And it looks like Jiménez could return by the end of this week. I’m fine with being patient here, especially after making a nice jump in the standings over the weekend. But trading one of my top starters – Giolito, Sonny Gray or Shane Bieber – has to be considered if things start to turn sour again.

What about the other two leagues? My NL Tout Wars team is remarkably similar to the one in NL LABR, tops in saves but surprisingly struggling on offense – despite having Trea Turner, Mookie Betts and Harper. Pegging Kyle Wright as my No. 3 starter behind Zack Wheeler and Yu Darvish may have been my biggest mistake on draft day.

And in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, I probably spent too long waiting for Justin Verlander and Harrison Bader to get healthy, while also being too optimistic about when McCullers and Triston McKenzie would return.

May takeaways

The main point of this whole exercise: Don’t give up on the season too quickly. No matter how badly things have gone, there’s plenty of time to turn it around.

• First, take a moment to analyze where your team sits in the standings – and determine where there’s the greatest room for improvement.

• Second, construct a plan to spend the next two months getting your team in position to contend over the final third of the season.

Whether it’s making trades to shore up weak spots, working the waiver wire to add impact players, cutting bait on dead weight or even just being patient with players you know will improve, getting stronger each week should be your focus.

Just being within striking distance can be all you need.

• Third, be prepared to jump when opportunity arises. Both my NL and AL LABR teams have almost all of their free agent budget left. At least a couple of big stars usually switch leagues at the trade deadline. You never know who might be this year’s J.D. Martinez.

And there are still several elite prospects in the minors (Elly De La Cruz, Royce Lewis, Gavin Williams, Christian Encarnacion-Strand) who could provide an instant impact if and when they’re promoted.

While the odds against making a historic worst-to-first comeback are admittedly long, only the worst teams ever get that opportunity. Take the challenge. Pitch, hit and run with it.

Follow Gardner on Twitter at @SteveAGardner

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fantasy baseball strategies for pulling off worst-to-first turnaround