Michigan, TCU bring contrast of styles to College Football Playoff semifinal at Fiesta Bowl
Inches separated TCU from perfection. After coming up just short in the Big 12 championship game against Kansas State, the Horned Frogs and first-year coach Sonny Dykes will settle for the most unexpected College Football Playoff berth in the history of the postseason format.
And now the really hard part begins: third-seeded TCU enters the Fiesta Bowl as underdogs against Big Ten champion and second-seeded Michigan in a matchup of contrasting offensive styles.
This is the second playoff appearance in a row for the Wolverines, who ended the regular season with impressive wins against Ohio State and Purdue.
Another win against the rival Buckeyes and another Big Ten crown marks an official changing of the guard, as Michigan takes over from Ohio State as the dominant program in the conference and one of the very best programs in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
Last year’s team was not expected to contend for the playoff after a miserable 2020 season that left coach Jim Harbaugh’s job on thin ice. But this year’s squad was predicted to be in the thick of the championship race and has delivered with room to spare, leaving the Wolverines as Georgia’s biggest threat for the national title.
Despite losing star running back Blake Corum to a season-ending injury in late November, the offense has continued to flourish on the ground behind Donovan Edwards, who set a career high for rushing yards (216) against the Buckeyes and then was the MVP of the Big Ten championship game.
PEACH BOWL PREVIEW: Can Ohio State hang with Georgia after reprieve?
POSTSEASON LINEUP: Complete schedule and results for every bowl game
HIGHS AND LOWS: Winners and losers on college football's early signing day
His ability to shoulder the load has helped quarterback J.J. McCarthy bounce back from a miserable performance in a narrow win the game ahead of the Ohio State game against Illinois. The sophomore has six touchdowns and has averaged 10.3 yards per attempt in the past two games.
Despite McCarthy’s strong play of late, Michigan’s clearest path to victory is to avoid a battle of quarterbacks and to focus on what the team does best: run the ball and stop others from doing the same.
That’s because TCU has one of the nation’s elite players in Heisman Trophy finalist and quarterback Max Duggan, who began the season as the backup but stepped into the starting role in September and delivered one of the finest seasons in program history.
He booked his place in the Heisman ceremony with an epic performance in the loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 title game. Battered by the Wildcats defense, Duggan toughed out 251 passing yards, 110 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Late in the game, he led the Horned Frogs on an 80-yard drive to tie the score at 28-28 and force overtime.
As Duggan goes, so goes TCU. Since even Michigan’s defense may struggle containing the senior, the Wolverines’ focus could be instead on slowing down the Horned Frogs’ complementary skill talent, led by all-conference running back Kendre Miller.
It’s undeniable TCU has yet to face a defense of Michigan’s caliber. The Wolverines rank third nationally in yards allowed per game (277.1), third in yards given up per play (4.5) and fifth in scoring defense (13.4 points per game).
Only two opponents topped 400 yards of offense: Ohio State and Purdue. Much like TCU, though, those two opponents attacked Michigan with pass-heavy offensive game plans built around strong quarterback play.
The contrast is clear. As they’ve done all season, the Wolverines want to pound away at the TCU defense and pull away in the second half. The Horned Frogs want to push the tempo and force Michigan to operate at a faster pace. The winner will be the team that forces the other out of its comfort zone.
Who has the edge?
When Michigan runs: The running game hasn’t skipped a beat with Donovan Edwards taking handoffs. In fact, the Wolverines have been even more explosive. Edwards has averaged 8.5 yards per carry in the past two games and leads the Power Five with four rushes of 60 or more yards. EDGE: Michigan.
When Michigan passes: J.J. McCarthy has done a good job all season avoiding turnovers and has played his best football in the past two games. But the TCU pass defense may be the most overlooked part of this game. The Horned Frogs have faced 451 pass attempts and rank ninth nationally in opposing completion percentage (53.9). EDGE: TCU.
When TCU runs: Good luck. Michigan is giving up 2.9 yards per carry and has allowed 1,108 yards and seven rushing touchdowns all season. TCU will try, though. EDGE: Michigan.
When TCU passes: And here’s where the game will be won or lost for TCU. Can Max Duggan get going and loosen up the Wolverines pass defense? Will Michigan get pressure on third down? Duggan may put up 300 or more yards but he must avoid turnovers. EDGE: TCU.
Special teams: The return game favors TCU, one of six Power Five teams with two punt-return scores during the regular season. The Wolverines have one of the nation’s best specialists in kicker Jake Moody. TCU’s Griffin Kell is no slouch, either. EDGE: Michigan.
Coaching: Sonny Dykes has pulled off one of the great coaching jobs by a first-year coach in FBS history. Jim Harbaugh has been here before, though, and knows how to prepare this month. EDGE: Michigan.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fiesta Bowl preview: Michigan faces TCU in playoff contrast of styles
