Michigan State football vs. Central Michigan: Scouting report, prediction

Breaking down Michigan State football’s 2023 season opener Friday at home against Central Michigan.

Fast facts

Matchup: Michigan State (5-7 in 2022) vs. Central Michigan (4-8 in 2022).

Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday; Spartan Stadium, East Lansing.

TV/radio: FS1, WJR-AM (760).

Line: Spartans by 14.

Injury report

MSU: Out: DB Khary Crump (suspension), OL Stanton Ramil (right knee), OL Gavin Broscious (left knee). Questionable: LB Darius Snow (right leg). Probable: C Nick Samac (upper body).

CMU: None reported.

Scouting report

When MSU has the ball: Coach Mel Tucker, entering his fourth season, would not reveal his starting quarterback earlier this week. The unveiling of either Noah Kim or Katin Houser will be the Spartans’ first new starting quarterback since Payton Thorne took over in the final game of 2020 at Penn State. Replacing the departed two-year starter, who transferred to Auburn after finishing in the top 10 in a number of categories in MSU’s record book, won’t be easy. Kim and Houser combined for 44 snaps last season, mainly in garbage time, so it will be the most extensive look for both Friday.

It appears running back Nathan Carter will get the first chance to revive the run game, with an offensive line expected to return three starters in center Nick Samac, left guard J.D. Duplain and right tackle Spencer Brown, and two others in left tackle Brandon Baldwin and right guard Geno VanDeMark who ended the 2022 season as starters.

The Spartans also must replace Jayden Reed and Keon Coleman at receiver, with senior Tre Mosley returning as a third-year starter. It will be interesting to see how offensive coordinator Jay Johnson attempts to use those new faces to attack a veteran CMU defense, led by cornerback Donte Kent and defensive tackles Jacques Bristol and Robi Stuart. The Chips ranked 61st in the nation last season, allowing 374.3 yards per game, but gave up 28.2 points a game (79th) and finished 129th in turnover margin.

When CMU has the ball: Injuries to the defensive line turned the Spartans into a sieve against the run, allowing 178.6 rushing yards among the 416.5 yards yielded per game to rank 101st in both categories. MSU beefed up via transfer by adding defensive tackle Jalen Sami and defensive end Tunmise Adeleye, getting defensive end Khris Bogle back healthy after a season-ending injury early last season, and bringing in a talented freshman class of four-star pass rushers headlined by Bai Jobe. They join a group of interior defensive linemen (Simeon Barrow, Derrick Harmon, Maverick Hansen) that might be the Spartans’ deepest and most talented position. Jacoby Windmon returns from suspension that cost him the final four games of 2022 after a midseason All-American start, and he will pair with linebacker Cal Haladay in the middle of Scottie Hazelton’s 4-2-5 defense. Development of the young players behind them is critical to success in the secondary, with Malik Spencer and Jaden Mangham ticketed to start at safety and fellow sophomore Dillon Tatum joining junior Charles Brantley at cornerback. They’ll also enter Friday not knowing how CMU will approach its quarterback position, with sophomore Jase Bauer and redshirt freshman Bert Emanuel Jr. competing for the job that also is not expected to be revealed until kickoff.

CMU also lost star Lew Nichols III to the NFL from an offense that averaged 367.2 yards per game (84th in FBS) and 24.8 points (tied for 86th).

READ MORE: How Mel Tucker is sowing greater doubt about Michigan State football

Know the foe

Another QB question: Unlike MSU, the Chippewas’ two quarterbacks each got a start and plenty of playing time last season behind Daniel Richardson, who since transferred to Florida Atlantic. The 6-foot-3, 220-pound Bauer completed 59.3% of his 59 passes for 435 yards and a touchdown with five interceptions. He ran for 312 yards in six appearances. Emanuel, 6-3, 220, preserved his redshirt with just four appearances but still finished second in rushing with 496 yards on 96 carries and a team-leading seven TDs. Emanuel threw just eight passes, completing four.

Back attack: CMU likely will turn to the junior tandem of Myles Bailey and Marion Lukes. The 5-9, 200-pound Lukes ran 51 times for 323 yards and three touchdowns in eight games last season. The 5-10, 220-pound Bailey got 32 carries in seven games for 176 yards.

Welcome back: CMU coach Jim McElwain, like Tucker, comes from a branch of the Nick Saban coaching tree at Alabama. And like those two, McElwain also spent time in East Lansing, serving as assistant head coach and wide receivers/special teams coach under John L. Smith from 2003-05. McElwain returned to East Lansing in 2018 as Michigan's wide receivers coach under Jim Harbaugh for a 21-7 Wolverines victory.

Chris Solari's two cents

Past upsets: This will be the 11th meeting between CMU and MSU, and the Spartans have won four straight in the series. However, the most notable games have been the Chippewas’ three upset victories — in the first two meetings in 1991 and ’92, then again in 2009. There also have been some closer-than-expected outcomes, including MSU's 48-34 win in 1993, its 30-10 win in 2015 and the 31-20 victory the last time they played in 2018.

Battle lines: The Spartans and Chippewas were among the worst in the nation last year in time of possession. MSU ranked 127th out of 130 FBS teams with 26:13 possession time, the worst for the program in at least 25 years. CMU finished 107th in time of possession (28:14) and was among the nation's most penalized teams (63.2 yards per game, 110th) and worst offenses in the red zone (73.8%, 121st). The Spartans were worse in the red zone at 71.8% (123rd).

DISTANT REPLAY: Michigan State football's 10 greatest games at Spartan Stadium in 100 years

Prediction

The Chippewas’ defense makes things uncomfortable all night for the two new quarterbacks. Conversely, so does the Spartans’ aggressive front seven for CMU. But Carter turns in a strong game on the ground, and MSU’s defense generates two critical turnovers to set up put-away scores in the second half. The pick: MSU 24, CMU 14.

Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan State football-Central Michigan: Scouting report, prediction