Michigan State basketball at Purdue tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction

• What: Michigan State at Purdue

• When: 8 p.m. Saturday

• Where: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, Indiana

• TV/Radio: Fox/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 386 (MSU broadcast), Ch. 195 (Purdue broadcast)

• Records/Rankings: MSU is 17-11 overall, 9-8 in Big Ten play and unranked in the Associated Press and Coaches polls. MSU is ranked No. 19 by the analytics site Kenpom.com. Purdue is 25-3 overall and 14-3 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 2 in the AP poll and No. 3 by the Coaches. The Boilermakers are ranked No. 2 by Kenpom.

• Projected betting line: Purdue -10.5 (via oddsmaker Trevor Darnell)

• Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 704-291 in his 29th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Purdue — Matt Painter is 463-206 in his 20th season as a head coach, including 438-201 in his 19th season with the Boilermakers.

• Series: Purdue leads 75-56 all-time, including two wins last year. This is the only scheduled meeting between these two teams this season.

Projected lineups

MSU

C (22) Mady Sissoko (6-9) 3.7

F (25) Malik Hall (6-8) 12.9

G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 10.8

G (2) Tyson Walker (6-1) 18.1

PG (11) A.J. Hoggard (6-4) 11.2

Purdue

C (15) Zach Edey (7-3) 23.7

F (4) Trey Kaufman-Renn (6-9) 6.5

G (2) Fletcher Loyer (6-4) 10.1

G (55) Lance Jones (6-1) 13.0

G (3) Braden Smith (6-0) 12.7

• MSU update: The Spartans are coming off two eye-opening home losses to Iowa and Ohio State that have left them work to do to get into the NCAA tournament and also left them looking like less of a threat to do anything meaningful this season. Tom Izzo on Wednesday defended his decision not to play Xavier Booker down the stretch of Sunday’s loss to the Buckeyes, after he started and played Booker 17 of the game’s first 25 minutes as MSU built a double-digit lead. Of greater concern, the health and shooting struggles of star guard Tyson Walker, who was averaging more than 20 points per game through the first two months of the season, but has only reached the 20-point mark twice in the past 13 games. He’s averaging 15.4 points and shooting less than 32% on 3-point tries over that stretch, while battling a groin injury, after averaging 20.6 points and making better than 41% of 3s through the first 14 games.

MORE: Tom Izzo built MSU's Izzone nearly 30 years ago. Now it's part of his legacy.

• Purdue update: The Boilermakers can clinch a share of the Big Ten title with a win Saturday. At 14-3 in the Big Ten, they have a two-game lead on Illinois with games left at home against MSU, at Illinois and then home against Wisconsin. Purdue’s only three defeats this entire season were road losses at Northwestern, Nebraska and Ohio State, each separated by more than a month. In Big Ten play, the Boilermakers are the league’s most efficient offense, per Kenpom, the best offensive rebounding team, second-best 3-point shooting team and also lead the conference in blocked shots. They have the presumed repeat national player of the year in 7-foot-3 center Zach Edey and another likely first-team all-conference selection in sophomore point guard Braden Smith.

• Inside the matchup: MSU has no good matchup for Zach Edey — few teams do — but the Spartans do have four different centers to throw at him, three of whom have faced him before. I expect senior Mady Sissoko to start. He’s the strongest physically of MSU’s options. Sophomore Carson Cooper gives MSU more length and played extended minutes against Edey in both matchups last season. The challenge, Cooper said Wednesday, is not just defending Edey in the post and making him as uncomfortable as possible, but, more importantly, preventing him from rebounding his own misses. Edey leads the nation in offensive rebounding and that’s where he demoralizes opponents. Xavier Booker is likely to get some time, as well, at center and/or power forward. He’s got the most length of MSU’s centers, but he's also the least seasoned. Still, if none of MSU's big men can displace Edey, then Booker's length might be the best chance to bother him. We'll see if he gets that chance. Tom Izzo said he doesn’t expect Purdue to defend Booker with Edey, so the notion that Booker's shooting ability would pull Edey away from the basket defensively is wishful thinking.

Purdue is so much more than Edey this season, beginning with point guard Braden Smith, who averages 7.2 assists and has been consistent in his performances and decision-making all season. He’s hard to disrupt, but MSU has as disruptive a defensive backcourt as he’ll see. Lance Jones, a Southern Illinois grad transfer, has given Purdue another scoring guard and made the Boilermakers more athletic defensively in the backcourt. But it’s Fletcher Loyer, Foster’s brother, who seemingly makes Purdue too much to handle when his shot is on. The Boilermakers are a well-constructed team because Matt Painter has so many capable shooters around Edey — four guys making better than 36% of their 3s at a relatively high volume and six players in the rotation at above 40% from deep, including 4-men Mason Gillis (42-for-87) and Trey Kaufman-Renn (8-for-19).

MSU has tried several approaches against Edey in the past. The most successful — and likely Saturday’s approach — has been a varied one, mixing dig-downs and double-teams, with straight-up defense, trying to keep him guessing whether help is actually coming. This is a hard Purdue team to play help defense against. The Boilermakers have the best point guard and best big man in the conference and two or three other decent scoring options most games.

RELATED: Couch: How much older is Big Ten basketball? A lot. And Michigan State leads the way

• Prediction: The Spartans haven’t won in West Lafayette in 10 years. This doesn’t seem like the year that changes. I do think MSU, pound for pound, matches up fine with Purdue at every spot except center. Unfortunately for the Spartans, that position looks like a whale of a mismatch, one that it’s hard to imagine MSU overcoming at Mackey Arena.

• Make it: Purdue 79, MSU 67

MORE: Couch: MSU hockey is playing Wisconsin for a Big Ten title. It's a big deal. Not big enough for TV.

— Graham Couch

This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball at Purdue: Prediction, preview, TV info, betting line