Michigan State basketball at Illinois tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction

• What: Michigan State at Illinois

• When: 9 p.m. (ET) Thursday

• Where: State Farm Center, Champaign, Illinois

• TV/Radio: FS1/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 381 (MSU broadcast), Ch. 84 (Illinois broadcast)

• Records/Rankings: MSU is 9-6 overall, 1-3 in Big Ten play and unranked in the Associated Press and coaches polls. MSU is ranked No. 19 by the analytics site Kenpom.com. Illinois is 11-3 overall, 2-1 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 10 in both the AP and Coaches poll. The Illini are No. 9 per Kenpom.

• Vegas line: Illinois -4

• Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 696-286 in his 29th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Illinois — Brad Underwood is 234-109 in his 11th season as a head coach at the NCAA Division I level, including 125-82 in his seventh season with the Illini.

• Series: MSU leads 64-63 all-time. Illinois won the only meeting last season, 75-66, in Champaign.

Projected lineups

MSU

C (22) Mady Sissoko (6-9) 4.9

F (25) Malik Hall (6-8) 10.3

G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 10.7

G (2) Tyson Walker (6-1) 20.6

PG (11) AJ Hoggard (6-4) 11.3

Illinois

C (33) Coleman Hawkins (6-10) 10.4

F (13) Quincy Guerrier (6-8) 11.5

F (3) Marcus Domask (6-6) 14.1

G (10) Luke Goode (6-7) 7.6

G (20) Ty Rodgers (6-6) 5.6

• MSU update: The Spartans are coming off an 88-74 loss Sunday at Northwestern which snapped a five-game winning streak and dropped them to 0-2 in true road games this season and 1-3 in Big Ten play. Under Izzo, the Spartans have never started 1-4 in conference play. MSU’s defense, its calling card most of this season, didn’t travel to Evanston. The Spartans have only twice this season allowed their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the floor — in those two true road games, at Nebraska and at Northwestern. After Thursday’s game at Illinois, MSU is home for games against Rutgers (on Sunday) and Minnesota (next Thursday). MSU expects sophomore center Jaxon Kohler to be part of the rotation after playing three minutes Sunday in his return from a preseason foot injury.

• Illinois update: The Illini are in the early stages of figuring out who they are without leading scorer Terrence Shannon Jr., who has been suspended from the team while facing a rape charge in Kansas. Shannon filed a temporary restraining order this week against the university, hoping to be reinstated. That won’t be decided in time for Thursday night’s game. Illinois is 2-1 in its three games since Shannon was suspended, including a 30-point home win against Northwestern and a five-point loss at Purdue, both last week. Senior Marcus Domask, a Southern Illinois grad transfer, scored 32 and 26 points, respectively, in those two games, taking over as Illinois’ primary scorer.

• Inside the matchup: Illinois, like Northwestern when it faced MSU, is coming off nearly a week’s rest, giving the Illini time continue to revamp who they are minus Shannon. Their ceiling is probably lower now, but this is still a talented roster, with a lot of size, noticeably in the backcourt and on the wing. The Illini are 6-foot-6 and 6-7 at positions the Spartans are 6-1 to 6-4. Domask is a skilled forward who plays at his own pace and doesn’t let the defense rush him. He’s a better outside shooter than his numbers this year and he’s especially effective backing down defenders to create for himself and teammates. Another grad transfer, 6-4 guard Justin Harmon, has stepped in during Shannon’s absence, providing scoring and shooting off the bench.

One key is how the Spartans choose to defend Illinois point guard Ty Rogers, who is not at all a shooter. Purdue basically didn't guard him, instead having center Zach Edey stand in the paint to meet him if he drove it. It worked well. MSU could do something similar or just sag off of him with a guard, allowing the player defending him to also congest the lane. Illinois didn't have a good answer for it against Purdue. I'm not sure there is one. I loved the strategy.

Elsewhere, though, Illinois is a hard team to scout, because any number of guys are capable of having big games or not doing much at all. Inside, Daine Dianja, who gave the Spartans problems last season, and Coleman Hawkins are familiar and different types of big men, and 4-man Quincy Guerrier, an Oregon transfer, is a capable shooter but also a strong player in the paint. Physically, this will be a test for the Spartans, albeit a different test than if Shannon were still with the team.

RELATED: Couch: How much older is Big Ten basketball? A lot. And Michigan State leads the way

• Prediction: MSU can win this game. The Spartans have the backcourt to do it. And we’ve seen good how this team can be. Just not yet on the road. I’m not going to pick MSU’s first road win to come at Illinois. Not after what we saw at Nebraska and Northwestern. The Illini might still be Big Ten title contenders and the State Farm Center is one of the more difficult road venues in college basketball. That said, this is a real opportunity for MSU to get a resume win that’ll stand the test of time and, given their schedule, to perhaps get on a little bit of a run.

• Make it: Illinois 76, MSU 73

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.

This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball at Illinois: Prediction, preview, how to watch, betting