Michigan football starting No. 2 is a shortcut to College Football Playoff
It’s not where you start, but where you finish.
That has been the mantra for plenty of college football teams over the years, as they eyed the improvements needed to finish on top.
Still, starting on top — or at least near the top — can be pretty important, too. In the College Football Playoff era —aka, the previous nine seasons — no team that started outside the top six in the USA TODAY Sports AFCA Coaches Poll has won the CFP title. (For that matter, only three teams — Ohio State in 2014, LSU in 2019 and Georgia in 2021 — have been crowned after starting outside the top three in the coaches poll.)
That’s good news for Michigan football, which starts the 2023 season at No. 2 in the coaches poll. That’s the program’s highest preseason ranking from the coaches since USA TODAY began administering the poll in 1991.
So starting high in the polls helps. But what about the finish, as Michigan goes for its third straight CFP berth in 2023-24 — and, yes, the program’s first national title since 1997? During this nine-season CFP run, just four schools (besides Michigan) have been ranked No. 2 by the coaches heading into the season: TCU, Alabama (twice), Clemson (three times) and Ohio State (also three times).
More good news for U-M’s CFP hopes: Five of those No. 2 squads made the CFP that season. The bad news? Only two went on to win the title game — and they’re both an orange-wearing squad from South Carolina that, uh, rhymes with “Mlemson Ligers.”
With that in mind, let’s review how all the coaches’ preseason No. 2s fared during the CFP era:
2014: Alabama
The opening poll of the CFP era slotted the Crimson Tide, coming off an 11-2 season and a loss in the Sugar Bowl, behind No. 1 Florida State, which received 56 of 62 first-place votes. Alabama, meanwhile, was blanked on first-place ballots.
(No. 3 Oklahoma received three firsts, and No. 4 Oregon, No. 6 Ohio State and No. 9 South Carolina — yes, really — each received one.)
Consider that motivation for Alabama, which won its first four games by a combined score of 168-56. (QB Blake Sims was hardly NFL-bound, but he spread the ball to running backs Derrick Henry and T.J. Yeldon and wideout Amari Cooper, all headed to the pros.) Even an upset loss to Mississippi — ’Bama’s first loss to the Rebels since 2003 — couldn’t contain the Tide, who won their next eight to grab the No. 1 spot in the CFP and a return to the Sugar Bowl for the semifinals.
There, Alabama faced fourth-seeded Ohio State, which was down to backup QB Cardale Jones after J.T. Barrett — now the Detroit Lions’ assistant QBs coach — broke his ankle against Michigan. Unfortunately for the Tide, OSU still had starting running back Ezekiel Elliott, who rushed 20 times for 230 yards and two TDs — including the eventual game-winner, an 85-yarder with 3:24 remaining — in the Buckeyes’ 42-35 victory.
FINAL RECORD: 12-2
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2015: TCU
After a rough introduction to the Power Five ranks — TCU went 11-14 in its first two seasons in the Big 12 — the Horned Frogs broke through with a 12-1 record and a Peach Bowl win in 2014, setting themselves up for the No. 2 spot in summer 2015. TCU trailed defending champion Ohio State, which received 62 of 64 first-place votes, with the Horned Frogs and Alabama each receiving one.
TCU then won its first eight games, including seven straight with at least 40 points scored. But the Horned Frogs’ soft schedule — including non-con games vs. Minnesota, SMU and FCS-level Stephen F. Austin — did them no favors, and they opened the first CFP rankings, on Nov. 3, at No. 8. Two losses in three weeks didn’t help, either, as TCU fell to Sooner State foes Oklahoma State (49-29) and Oklahoma (30-29) soon after to drop out of CFP contention.
The Horned Frogs rebounded with a win over seventh-ranked Baylor and 15th-ranked Oregon (in the Alamo Bowl), but finished the season seventh in the final coaches poll, six spots behind national champion Alabama, which opened the season at No. 3.
FINAL RECORD: 11-2
2016: Clemson
The Tigers’ loss to Alabama in the CFP title game set them up at No. 2 in the coaches’ vote behind … Alabama. At least Clemson, led by QB Deshaun Watson in his third season, drew seven first-place votes, behind ’Bama’s 55 (and ahead of Florida State’s single top vote).
Clemson then opened with nine straight wins — though five were by a single score — to slot into the CFP rankings for two weeks at … No. 2. An upset loss to Pitt in mid-November dropped the Tigers down to No. 4 in the CFP ranks, but Clemson climbed up to No. 3 with three wins to finish the regular season, grabbing a berth in the Fiesta Bowl and CFP semis.
In Arizona, the Tigers mauled No. 2 Ohio State, 31-0 to set up a rematch with Alabama in the championship game in Tampa, Florida. This time, however, Clemson was the victor, as Watson found Hunter Renfrow in the end zone from 2 yards out with 1 second remaining in a 35-31 victory.
FINAL RECORD: 14-1, won national championship over Alabama
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2017: Ohio State
The Buckeyes’ CFP semifinal loss, Watson’s departure for the NFL and Barrett’s return for his senior season (blocking once-prized recruit Joe Barrow), set up Ohio State at No. 2 the following season, behind the Crimson Tide, who received just 49 first-place votes — almost signifying a lack of consensus in the preseason. Clemson was No. 5 in the poll, but received the second-most firsts, with seven. Then came the Buckeyes, with five first-place votes and Florida State, which parlayed four first-place votes into a No. 3 start in the coaches poll.
OSU’s CFP aspirations, however, took a hit in the second week of the season as the Buckeyes were dominated by QB Baker Mayfield, who planted Oklahoma’s flag at midfield after a 31-16 win in Columbus. Still, the Buckeyes weren’t finished — they won their next six to get within striking distance of the CFP, at No. 6 in the committee’s ranking at the end of October — until they traveled to Iowa City for the first Saturday of November. There, Barrett’s crew was hammered by the Hawkeyes, 55-24. Four straight wins after that, including victories over U-M at the Big House and Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game in Indy couldn’t save OSU’s CFP hopes.
Instead, the Buckeyes were sent to Dallas for a faux-Rose Bowl — the Grandaddy of ‘Em All was hosting the CFP semi between Oklahoma and Georgia — against USC in the Cotton Bowl. OSU salvaged some Big Ten pride, topping the Pac-12’s Trojans, 24-7, but only finished fifth in the final coaches poll.
FINAL RECORD: 12-2
2018: Clemson
After finishing fourth in the final 2017 coaches poll, the Tigers handed the reins to freshman QB Trevor Lawrence and earned the No. 2 spot entering 2018, as well as three first-place votes. (Defending champ Alabama nabbed the top spot on 61 of 65 ballots, with No. 3 Ohio State getting a lone first-place nod.)
That was almost all the humbling suffered by Clemson; after the Tigers escaped a visit to Texas A&M with a two-point win in Week 2, and escaped a visit from Syracuse — yes, really — with a 27-23 victory in Week 5, Clemson won its final 10 games (including the postseason) by an average of 40 points. Somehow, the Tigers still entered the CFP as the No. 2 seed, behind … Alabama.
Clemson’s dominant run wrapped up with two final blowouts — a 30-3 win over Notre Dame at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas that wasn’t as close as the score indicated, and a 44-16 win over Alabama in the CFP title game in Santa Clara, California, in which the Tigers rolled over the Tide, 30-3, in the final three quarters.
FINAL RECORD: 15-0, won national championship
2019: Alabama
From CFP disappointment to coaches poll No. 2 the next season: Sensing a trend? The defending-champion Tigers received 59 first-place votes, while the runner-up Crimson Tide rolled with the top spot on the other six ballots.
A rematch seemed ordained, as both the Tide and the Tigers won their first eight games, mostly by blowout margins. But Joe Burrow — now at LSU — entered the conversation, leading the Tigers of Baton Rouge to victory over ’Bama in Tuscaloosa, 46-41, and virtually locking up unbeaten LSU’s spot in the CFP. The Crimson Tide still had a shot at the CFP until three weeks later, when they stumbled in the Iron Bowl, falling to Auburn by three points.
That loss dropped Alabama to the Citrus Bowl, where the Tide faced Michigan — and destroyed the Wolverines, 35-16 — in ex-Michigan State coach Nick Saban’s second game against U-M since departing East Lansing. (Clemson, meanwhile, kept winning, setting up a Tiger-on-Tiger CFP title game, won by Burrow and LSU.)
FINAL RECORD: 11-2
2020: Ohio State
The Buckeyes’ toughest challenger the season after losing in the CFP semifinals and finishing third in the final coaches poll wasn’t any on-field opponent (well, at least until January 2021, but we’ll get to that), but instead, the coronavirus pandemic. Just five days after opening the 2020 season as the coaches’ No. 2 — with 17 first-place votes, behind Clemson (38) and ahead of LSU (6) and Alabama (4) — OSU’s season was in doubt, as the Big Ten announced the cancellation of all fall sports.
OSU didn’t get onto the field until late October, after the conference relented and decided on an eight-game schedule. Even then, challenges popped up — six games played were needed to qualify for the Big Ten title game, and OSU had three matchups wiped out by COVID-19 breakouts. Only a late rule change by the conference, favoring the 5-0 Buckeyes over 6-1 Indiana as East Division champs, kept OSU’s CFP hopes going.
The Buckeyes then slogged past West champ Northwestern in a Big Ten title game you’d swear was played in Indianapolis winter weather, rather than the indoors Lucas Oil Stadium, and sprinted past CFP 2-seed Clemson in the CFP semifinal in New Orleans. That Jan. 1 win was the highlight for the Buckeyes, however, as Alabama — which had won each of its first 12 games by at least 15 points — kept its streak going with a 52-24 blowout of OSU in the CFP title game in Miami.
FINAL RECORD: 7-1
2021: Clemson
The Tigers, coming off an — ahem — CFP semifinal loss — didn’t have long to enjoy their time at No. 2: Less than a month after drawing no first-place votes from the coaches (No. 1 Alabama picked up 63, and No. 3 Oklahoma got the other two), the Tigers dropped their opener in Atlanta to No. 5 Georgia.
That alone didn’t sink Clemson’s CFP hopes — but losses to unranked North Carolina State (three weeks later) and Pitt (in late October) did. The Tigers closed their regular season with five straight wins (four of which were against unranked foes) before heading to Orlando, Florida, for a December date with Iowa State in the Cheez-It Bowl. (The Tigers won, but doing it “For All the Cheez-Its” doesn’t have the same ring as “For All the Tostitos!”)
FINAL RECORD: 10-3
2022: Ohio State
Even without a 2021 CFP berth in their pocket, the Buckeyes were a clearly talented team; they wrestled five first-place votes out of the coaches, one fewer than No. 3 Georgia — the defending CFP champs — but 49 fewer than No. 1 Alabama, the CFP runners-up.
And, after a lackluster win over No. 5 Notre Dame, the Buckeyes appeared headed back to the CFP, rolling over Group of Five and Big Ten foes by similar margins, despite missing multiple starters seemingly every week. It was all going according to plan, until the second half of Michigan’s annual visit to Columbus, on Nov. 26, 2022. After leading by three points at the half, the Buckeyes were shredded for 28 second-half points (while scoring only three themselves) to give the Wolverines the Big Ten East for the second consecutive season.
Still, a one-loss OSU squad had earned a CFP spot already, taking on Georgia in the Peach Bowl as the No. 4 seed. But again, the Buckeyes couldn’t hold a lead — first a 21-7 cushion early in the second quarter, then a 38-27 margin early in the fourth and, finally, a three-point edge in the final minute in Atlanta, falling to the Bulldogs — the eventual national champs — 42-41 when Noah Ruggles’ 50-yard field goal attempt slid well left as time expired.
FINAL RECORD: 11-2
Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @theford.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan football ranking No. 2 a shortcut to College Football Playoff
