Michigan football sees familiar faces vs. Bowling Green: Scouting report, prediction

Free Press sports writer Tony Garcia breaks down Michigan football's Week 3 matchup vs. Bowling Green on Saturday.

Fast facts

Matchup: No. 2 Michigan (2-0) vs. Bowling Green (1-1).

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. Saturday; Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor.

TV/radio: Big Ten Network; WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050).

Line: Wolverines by 40½.

Injury report

Michigan: Out: CB Amorion Walker (lower body), WR Logan Forbes (lower body) Questionable: S Rod Moore (undisclosed), S Makari Paige (undisclosed), RB Tavierre Dunlap (undisclosed), RB Benjamin Hall (undisclosed), LB Jimmy Rolder (undisclosed), WR Peyton O'Leary (undisclosed), WR Darrius Clemons (undisclosed), DB German Green (undisclosed).

Bowling Green: None.

Scouting report

When Michigan has the ball: The Wolverines torched their first two opponents through the air as they struggled to get the run game going — just like everybody expected, right? U-M enters Week 3 ranked No. 31 nationally in passing offense (296.5 yards per game), largely fueled by J.J. McCarthy, who has been nearly flawless. Michigan's quarterback is 48-for-55 to lead the nation with his 87.3% completion rate, for 559 yards and five touchdowns (all of which have been caught by Roman Wilson, though fellow senior Cornelius Johnson leads the team in all-purpose yards). This week, though, U-M should have one motive: Run. Michigan's rushing attack enters Week 3 at No. 74 (150.5 yards per game), averaging 100 fewer yards than at this point last season. Offensive coordinator (and offensive line coach) Sherrone Moore is acting head coach in the final game of Jim Harbaugh's three-game suspension, so don't be surprised if he tests Bowling Green, which is No. 101 vs. the run (160.5 yards) and No. 75 in total defense (357 yards).

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When Bowling Green has the ball: Michigan should be familiar with BGSU quarterback Connor Bazelak. Not only did the Wolverines beat him, 31-10, with Indiana last season, but U-M backup quarterback Jack Tuttle was his understudy and tight end AJ Barner was one of his primary targets. He struggled that afternoon in Bloomington, completing 25 of 49 passes for 204 yards — a paltry 4.1 yards per attempt — with one touchdown and one interception. Bazelak, who began his collegiate career at Missouri, had a nightmare debut for the Falcons: 6-for-21 for 78 yards and three interceptions. He bounced back with a 23-for-28 performance for 319 yards and three TDs against Eastern Illinois last week. Still, he's 0-for-7 with an interception on passes more than 20 yards downfield, so U-M's secondary, healthy or not, doesn't figure to be challenged. The Falcons have four running backs with at least seven and no more than 17 carries on the season, but Ta'Ron Keith, who also has six catches for 122 yards, is the one to keep an eye on.

Know the foe

UP FOR GRABS: Michigan football still trying to figure out QB position behind J.J. McCarthy

All in the family: The connections between U-M and BGSU run deep. For starters, Jack Harbaugh — Jim's father and an associate head coach while Jim is suspended — played football there and later was an assistant on staff during Jim's childhood. BGSU head coach Scot Loeffler, now in his fifth season, was a quarterback for Michigan from 1993-96 before working as an assistant coach for 10 seasons. One of his roommates during his playing days in Ann Arbor? U-M's current defensive line coach, Mike Elston.

Then there's Steve Morrison, current co-defensive coordinator for Bowling Green and an All-Big Ten linebacker for Michigan in 1994. A Birmingham native, Morrison got his start at Birmingham Brother Rice and has also had stops at Eastern Michigan and Western Michigan. There's also Erik Campbell, the Falcons' pass game coordinator, who coached wide receivers at Michigan from 1995-2007. Campbell played at Michigan in the 1980s and was responsible for recruiting Braylon Edwards to Ann Arbor. U-M legend Bo Schembechler was an assistant at BGSU in 1955 under Doyt Perry, whom the Falcons' stadium is named after.

Big Ten concepts: Although Bowling Green doesn't appear to be a challenge for the Wolverines (at least according to oddsmakers), some of Michigan's coaches think there are parts of the game that will prepare them better for the coming weeks, especially Bowling Green's Big Ten-style offense.

“Some of the pass concepts are just dynamite,” Elston said. “(East Carolina and UNLV) were — I don’t want to say gimmicky — but a little more spread. These guys will bring it in the box and they’ll challenge us in the run game, run fits and eye discipline with jet motion and different things. And then play-action passes off of it, boots, they do a good job of getting their playmakers in position to make plays.”

Air attack: Bowling Green has a capable running back in Keith and a returning All-MAC second-teamer in WR Odieu Hiliare, but the true mismatch (against most teams) for the Falcons is tight end Harold Fannin Jr. The 6-foot-4 Canton, Ohio, native comes off a career week with seven catches for 109 yards and a touchdown.

Fannin had seven games with multiple catches in 2022 and has done so in both games to start this season. He'll be a good test for Junior Colson, Mike Sainristil, or whichever safety U-M may try to throw on Fannin when he's over the middle.

Tony Garcia's two cents

MAC dominance: U-M is 35-1 all-time against MAC schools, with the lone loss coming against Toledo, 13-10, under Rich Rodriguez in 2008. The Wolverines have won the only two matchups with Bowling Green, and neither were close: 42-7 in 2000, then 65-21 in 2010, when Tate Forcier went 12-for-12 for 110 yards and a TD and Denard Robinson added five carries for 129 yards and two TDs.

Run it up: If Michigan doesn't rush with some ease on Saturday, then there's official reason for concern. Harbaugh admitted Monday the run game is a bit off this season and the numbers suggest it's between the tackles. On 27 such runs, U-M has picked up just 105 yards (3.9 yards per carry), with just three going for at least 10 yards — one by McCarthy, one by Tuttle and one by Kalel Mullings.

Prediction

There's no question Michigan will win this game. But how will it happen? U-M coaches hope it will be an easy balance of pass and run while getting out of the game healthy. As for the score, with so many friends on the other sideline, U-M's staff will not run it up. Especially since Harbaugh was emphatic that he wants to see quarterbacks Alex Orji and Jayden Denegal get game reps. Don't be surprised if U-M gets up by 30 with a few minutes left in the third and then lets the backups get valuable experience. The pick: U-M 45, Bowling Green 9

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan football scouting report, prediction Week 3 vs. Bowling Green