As Michigan football goes all in for national title, it has bet big on J.J. McCarthy

In all probability, it shouldn’t have been completed.

As a gang of Ohio State defenders collapsed on him, J.J. McCarthy retreated and moved ever so slightly to his right so he could buy an extra tenth of a second. Rearing back, he didn’t have time to set his feet and step into the throw, violently torquing his hips to generate some power. The spiraling ball flew in the direction of Buckeyes safety Malik Hartford, who had his eyes locked on the Michigan football quarterback as he posted up in the middle of the field.

Zooming through the air, the pass headed toward receiver Roman Wilson, who was shadowed by Buckeyes cornerback Denzel Burke as he traced an exaggerated post route.

A panicked feeling washed over Michigan quarterback coach Kirk Campbell in that moment, as he recalled.

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“No, no, no, no,” he said.

But then he saw what happened next. Like a guided missile, the ball zipped between Hartford and Burke, hitting Wilson in stride as his momentum carried him to the end zone.

“Yes!” Campbell exclaimed. “Touchdown Michigan!”

The jaw-dropping 22-yard play was one of the signature highlights in the Wolverines’ thrilling 30-24 victory over the Buckeyes last Saturday that won them the Big Ten East crown. It also captured the essence of McCarthy’s game, which is an intriguing mix of great talent, guts, and yes, dedication to his craft. After all, a ton of natural ability was needed to deliver a pass with high velocity and perfect accuracy. It also took a lot of nerve to even attempt it. And, as McCarthy later explained, it required some advanced study to have the conviction to let it rip.

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In days leading up to the pass, he noticed that Hartford always turned his head to track the ball once it is released instead of keeping his eyes fixed on the quarterback. The recon work gave McCarthy the confidence to make a split-second decision and send the ball right in the path of the Ohio State safety.

He saw it as a calculated gamble

“And, yeah, I’m a risk taker,” he said. “I feel like in a lot of situations in football where if you miss that opportunity to take that chance, you won’t ever get it back.”

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McCarthy’s daredevil approach to his position would seem to fly in the face of head coach Jim Harbaugh’s measured offensive philosophy that is built around meticulous execution and the elimination of potential hazards like turnovers and self-inflicted errors.

A case can be made that McCarthy was largely responsible for the Wolverines’ only loss last season, the 51-45 shocker against TCU in the College Football Playoff. During that wild affair, he threw two interceptions returned for touchdowns, first saddling the Wolverines with a deficit and then hampering the onerous effort to erase it.

But as he tried to will Michigan to a comeback that night, he also showed why he offers Michigan its best opportunity to win a national championship. Against the Horned Frogs, he accounted for a career-high 395 yards, propelling an offense that had spent most of last fall bulldozing Big Ten teams with its brawny ground game. The crude recipe of success that helped U-M conquer its conference didn’t translate in the CFP. It needed an infusion of McCarthy, a playmaker who often straddles the line between reckless and bold.

Should Michigan do what is expected and beat Iowa on Saturday to win the Big Ten for the third straight year, it likely still does.

It seemed Harbaugh recognized that months ago, when he aimed to expand the dimensions of the passing attack and empowered McCarthy, calling him a “once-in-a-generation” quarterback. Over the first nine games, McCarthy lived up to that billing. He completed 76% of his passes and garnered attention as a Heisman Trophy contender. But his reduced impact in wins over Penn State and Maryland last month dulled the enthusiasm over McCarthy’s performance this season.

Then came the showdown with Ohio State, when McCarthy played with poise and precision. He connected on 16 of his 20 pass attempts for 148 yards, efficiently carrying the Wolverines to the finish line while also flirting with disaster. In a pressure-packed moment, he delivered a pinpoint throw to Colston Loveland on fourth down to preserve a scoring drive in the second quarter. He later caused some anxiety when he attempted his final pass after rolling toward the sideline and then flinging the ball back over the middle to Cornelius Johnson for a modest 5-yard gain. The costs, with Michigan holding a three-point lead at that juncture, were potentially enormous.

The benefits were minimal. But McCarthy threw caution to the wind anyway. In the end, he couldn’t fight his true nature.

“Fearless is the way to describe him,” said Harbaugh.

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It is fitting then that McCarthy has become the face of a team that adopted the slogan, “Bet,” after it was thrust into a maelstrom of controversy when a sign-stealing scandal first surfaced six weeks ago and Harbaugh was later suspended for the three final regular season games by the Big Ten. The rallying cry implied Michigan was all in for the rest of the season and had thrown its chips down as it tries to complete its championship quest.

With McCarthy, it is easy to see why they did.

The Wolverines have invested their faith in him as if he were their talisman, believing he could lead them to glory.

Before the game, before McCarthy delivered that momentous throw to Wilson, before he led Michigan to its third straight win over its arch-nemesis, acting coach Sherrone Moore sidled up to the quarterback and reminded him why the Wolverines’ fortunes rest on his right shoulder.

“I’m gonna put the ball in your hands,” Moore told him. “Because I know you’re gonna make a great decision.”

“And” he added, “You’re gonna help us win.”

It’s what the best gamblers do.

Contact Rainer Sabin at rsabin@freepress.com. Follow him @RainerSabin.

Next up: Hawkeyes

Matchup: No. 2 Michigan (12-0) vs. No. 17 Iowa (10-2), Big Ten championship game.

Kickoff: 8 p.m. Saturday; Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis.

TV/radio: Fox; WXYT-FM (97.1), WTKA-AM (1050).

Line: Wolverines by 21½.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Why title hopes rest on Michigan football betting on J.J. McCarthy