New Mexico State Aggies vs. New Mexico Lobos Prediction, Live Stream, Picks, Best Bets

The Rio Grande Rivalry

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Lobos want a rivalry win

The New Mexico Lobos (1-1) square off in week three against the New Mexico State.

Aggies (1-2) on Saturday, September 16, 2023, at University Stadium in the

Annual Rio Grande Rivalry. 

If history indicates this game should be an old-fashioned Wild West

Shootout, as these teams are not too fond of each other, to put it mildly. 

Having seen many Lobo/Aggie games over the years, you can see the oddsmaker’s numbers in this game, as it’s always pretty entertaining. 

The Aggies come to University Stadium in Albuquerque for what looks like a whole house; ticket projections are over 30K, with many walking up to purchase tickets on their phones. 

Head Lobo Coach Danny Gonzales has a long history in this game as a player, coach, and now head coach and looks to make a statement on the progression of his Lobos. 

The Aggies lost on the road at Liberty to the Flames, 33-17, last Saturday to drop to 1-2 in Kill’s second season with the Aggies.

Head coach Jerry Kill led NMSU to a 7-6 campaign and a Quick Lane Bowl victory in his first season at the helm in 2022 for the Aggies. 

Dominate the line of scrimmage.

All games are won on the line of scrimmage, so the Lobos must be ready for a scrappy Aggie team dogfight. 

The current Lobo players must understand that the NMSU Aggie team looks at this game as their Super Bowl and live for it. 

They must match the energy but stay focused on the game plan Coach “G” and staff have given them to be the victors in this Rio Grande Rivalry game. 

The Aggies, looking for a road win to try and get back to a .500 record, will have to go through their in-state rivals, the New Mexico Lobos in Albuquerque.

NMSU has lost the last five of seven games and is anxious to prove last year was not a fluke or luck in this 2023 year. 

NMSU offense averages 483.3 total yards and 35.0 points per game, including 265.7 passing yards and 217.7 rushing yards, ranking them a respectable 25th in FBS D1 football. 

Starting Quarterback Diego Pavia is passing for 715 yards, 6 T.D.s, and a 65.7 passing percentage at the helm of this Aggie offense. 

Diego Pavia is an excellent leader and duel-threat Quarterback with 93 carries and 508 yards rushing but has given the ball up with either fumbles when run out of the pocket or interceptions, short throws on long balls. 

So look for coach Kill to go to his backup in passing downs sometimes, especially with them returning four of the five receivers from last year. 

Trent Hudson and Jonathan Brady are leading in receptions for the Aggies with 257 yards and four T.D.s; Jordin Parker has two receptions. 

On the ground game, the Aggies are averaging 217.7 yards per game, with running back Monte Watkins leading with 161 yards and two T.D.s.

Running back Ahmonte Watkins is one very explosive running back that the Aggies like to run in shotgun situations, and he had an 80-yard touchdown against UMASS. 

On the defensive side of the ball, they are allowing 31.7 points a game and 398.3 yards per game. 

J.J. Dervil leads the New Mexico State Aggies with 17 tackles, Nikhil Webb Walker has 1.5 sacks, and Reggie Akles has two pass deflections.

The New Mexico State defense surrenders 398.3 total yards and 31.7 points per game, including 238.7 passing yards and 159.7 rushing yards. They were exceptional last year, ranking 29th in total defense and allowing just 24 points per game. 

 WHEN: Saturday, September 16, 2023 

WHERE: University Stadium in Albuquerque, NM

TIME: 8:00 PM ET, 6:00 PM MST 

WEATHER:  80° High & Low in evening 57 ° sunny 

TV: Mountain West Network

RADIO: Lobo Radio Network 

ANALYST:  Robert Portnoy (play-by-play) & Dontrell Moore (Color) 

SERIES RECORD: Lobos lead the series 73-3-5 

LAST WEEK: Lobos defeated Tennessee Tech 56-10, Aggies lost to Liberty 33-17  

Total/Over-Under: 51.5. New Mexico opens this game as 2-point favorites from

Odds: The over/under is set at 51.5.

GAME NOTES (PDF): | 

This year, they have surrounded 67 points and 915 yards of offense against UMASS and Liberty. 

They also gave up 248 passing yards to FCS Western Illinois, a huge red flag for you, the Lobos staff.

The Aggies lost mainstays Chris Ojoh and Trevor Brohard at linebacker and top corner Syrus Dumas and it does show.  

Score with a balanced attack of rushing and passing. 

So look for Lobos to exploit this defense with this solid rushing offense and passing with Hopkins behind center. 

The Lobos come into the game with a record of 1-1 with a quarterback blowout loss to Texas Tech 52-10 and a win against FCS Tennessee Tech 56-10. 

Dylan Hopkins tied a UNM record with four T.D.s in a single game with 273 yards on 13/17 passing, and his quarterback rating was an impressive 277.2. 

 He has a variety of options to throw the ball to, with the likes of junior WR Luke Wysong (who had 34 receptions for 291 yards in 2022), sophomore WR Caleb Medford (a TCU transfer), senior WR Jeremiah Hixon (who had 74 receptions for 918 yards and eight T.D.s in 2011 & 2022 at Alabama State), and 6-foot-5 JUCO transfer W.R. D.J. Washington.

Hopkins was named the Offensive Player of the Week by the Mountain West Conference for his first performance at home in Albuquerque. 

Leading the Lobos rushing was Jacory-Croskey-Merritt “Bill,” who had 162 yards rushing and 13.1 yards per carry for the Lobos. 

He leads the Lobos rushing with 23 carries, 212 yards, and 4 T.D.s. What is most impressive about this Alabama transfer is his 9.2 average yards per carry. 

Dorian Lewis, a local running back from powerhouse 6A Cleveland HS, is next in line with ten carries, 66 yards, and 6.6 yards per carry. 

Offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent’s offense is starting to show

Signs of why Danny Gonzales hired him as the O.C. 

The running game is a crucial strength for OC Bryant Vincent, and his offense can rely on senior Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who had 470 rushing yards and four touchdowns in 2022. 

This offense ended up with 587 yards, rushing the ball for 8.2 yards per carry, 296 total rushing yards.  

New Mexico allowed 34 attempts on the ground for 98 yards (2.9 yards per carry).

The Lobos passing defense gave up a completion percentage of 54.1%,

Relinquishing 182 yards on 20 out of 37 passing.

One area of concern, if not fixed, is the Lobos offense, which has 209 yards of penalties on 21 violations, which is 7th in the country as far as giving up free yards. 

If you look at the history of the Lobo football team, most successful players played smart football for four quarters with a minimal amount of penalties. 

If one looks at the Lobo football teams of the past, the Dennis Franchione era, the Bob Davie era, and the Rocky Long era, the teams with minimal personal fouls concentrated on the task on hand and they won games than  they lost.  

In emotionally intense or rivalry games, this can be a factor with young athletes; those who play intelligent football games tend to come out of it with a victory for the most part.

The Lobo Lobo offense averages 193.5 yards per game on the ground for 387 yards total.  

The Lobos rank 55th in Division 1, holding an average of 33 points per game, which is impressive, considering they were near the bottom in FBS football. 

UAB Blazers transfers Dylan Hopkins, Offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent, and Offensive the season. 

Add to that that Alabama State running bank transfer Jacory Croskey-Merritt “Bill” was like icing on the cake; he is good. 

He has a combination of size, speed, and excellent field vision to rack up rushing yards for the offense. He could be playing on Sundays on the day, and I have seen many great Lobo athletes that went to the next level. 

The Lobos moved the ball against a top-25 team for 222 yards, which the Lobos have struggled to accomplish in recent years.

If you are Aggie Defensive Coordinator Nate Dreiling, that has to be a genuine concern regarding game planning. Do you stop the run by loading the box of Play Cover 2 for the pass? 

Up to this point in the season, the Lobos have thrown for a total of 422 yards through the air, not to mention holding an average of 211.0 passing yards per contest, ranking them 88th in college football.

New Mexico was dead last in total offense and second-to-last in scoring offense. It’s scored 17 or more points twice in its previous 22 games against FBS teams.

So look for the NMSU Aggies to “load the box” to stop the run, and depending on what coverage they are in, Hopkins will more than likely have the ability to audible pass plays where the Lobos will have press coverage and one-one-on-one situations for a plethora of receivers they now have. 

The Lobo offense would be the strength of this team up to this point, but of course, that can change with only two games played. 

They have given up 7 T.D.s through the air and 229.5 yards per game, with them sitting 81st in the nation. 

The Lobos’ defense has been on the field for 134 plays, ranking them 81st in D-1. The Lobos allow 31.0 PPG, ranking them 107th in Division 1, relinquishing 62 points. 

They played the run against 23rd-ranked Texas A&M so much that even Coach Jimbo Fisher complimented Danny Gonzales, who only allowed 134 yards rushing.

The Lobos have made some significant additions to their team, including Gabriel Lopez, DT from Washington State; Hunter Rapolla, a transfer defensive lineman from JUCO; D’Arco Perkins-McAllister, a safety from TCU, and Dmitri Johnson, a transfer linebacker from JUCO. 

Special teams play

 The Special team’s play must be solid during this game, as it could be close in the end. Punter Aaron Rodriguez must flip that field when called up for duties. 

Also, there must be better consistency of the Kicker. Luke Drzewiecki must be accurate when kicking field goals for the Lobos, especially if the game is close at the end. 

Kickoff returns or punt returns can dramatically change the outcome of the game, and the Lobos need some big offensive explosive plays to change the game’s dynamics. 

Special teams are one of the things that most fans only pay a little attention to if their team loses on a muffed punt or a missed field goal. 

This is one of those pivotal games for the Lobos where they take the next step to be taken seriously in the Mountain West Conference; you have come out on top. 

Prediction

Lobo’s Bryant Vincent with Dylan Hopkins at Quarterback offense will be too much for Aggie’s Defense, and Lobo’s Defense will contain Diego Pavia to spoil his homecoming in the Duke City. 

New Mexico 35, New Mexico State 20

Story originally appeared on Mountain West Wire