Memphis football's margin for error is gone. Here are the best scenarios for the Tigers.
Halfway through the season, Memphis football has played to par — and now needs to have a heightened sense of urgency heading into the back half of the schedule.
The Tigers (4-2, 1-1 AAC) missed an opportunity last week to take control of the AAC conference title race. A win would have put Memphis in first place, with a manageable schedule the rest of the way.
"We continue to show that we are capable, but we haven't put it together for four quarters," coach Ryan Silverfield said after a 31-21 loss to Tulane on Oct. 13. "And that's my job to figure that out. We are 4-2. Not happy with that, because we certainly have the ability to be 5-1 right now. The season's not over. One game will not define us."
The Tigers can still make the conference title game, but the margin for error is gone and a chance at a New Year's Six bowl game looks like the longest of longshots.
For the most optimistic of Blue-and-Gray clad fans, it looks something like this:
Memphis wins out, finishing 10-2 to finish second in the conference behind Tulane. The Tigers go to New Orleans and win the rematch in the conference title game, which gets them just ahead of the Green Wave in the final rankings. Air Force loses at least twice, ideally to Boise State, while Missouri (Memphis' other loss this season) stays in the rankings the rest of the season. James Madison, the leaders of the Sun Belt Conference who are not eligible for a bowl game because they're still transitioning to FBS level, beats everyone else in their conference.
Potential issues? You bet. It starts with the AAC, where Memphis no longer controls its own destiny. FAU and UTSA play on Saturday; The winner will be 3-0 in conference, and Memphis doesn't play either team. Then there's SMU, which has a far easier schedule than any team competing at the top of the conference. There's every chance the Mustangs will have an unblemished conference record when they roll into Memphis on Nov. 18, which means Memphis needs to win all its conference games the rest of the way.
Assuming FAU and UTSA both lose one or more games (both have to play Tulane, in addition to each other), Memphis could play in the conference title game with six straight wins.
But that's easier said than done. Memphis is 3-11 on the road under Silverfield, and four of the final six games come away from Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.
That stretch starts with games Saturday (11 a.m., ESPN2) at UAB (2-5, 1-2), and at North Texas on Oct. 28.
"All of our hopes, goals and dreams are still in front of us," Silverfield said.
The Tigers are ultimately where most people expected them to be at this point in the season. They started with blowout wins over Bethune-Cookman and Arkansas State, then survived a too-close-for-comfort challenge from Navy. A 1-2 stretch against Missouri, Boise State and Tulane followed. Memphis has won every game it was favored in and lost every game it entered as an underdog. The combined record for the four teams Memphis has beaten? 10-15.
More: Why Memphis football running back Blake Watson didn't play in 2nd half vs. Tulane
"We like where our record's at," Silverfield said. "It gives us the chance to compete for a championship. We know winning conference games is important as anything but man, for us to think anything outside of learning from this one and focusing on the next opponent would be an injustice and disservice to our team and our program."
Reach sports writer Jonah Dylan at jonah.dylan@commercialappeal.com or on Twitter @thejonahdylan.
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Memphis football's margin for error is gone. Best scenarios for Tigers.
