Can Memphis football make the AAC title game this season? Here are the scenarios.

Memphis football is on track.

The Tigers (7-2, 4-1 American Athletic Conference) knew right after their Oct. 13 loss to Tulane that they'd missed a chance to take pole position for the conference title race. Both quarterback Seth Henigan and linebacker Chandler Martin agreed they would need to win out in order to make the title game.

Three games later, Memphis is still on track to do that. The Tigers beat UAB, North Texas and South Florida and now face a three-game stretch at Charlotte (3-6, 2-3) on Saturday (1 p.m., ESPN+), home against SMU and at Temple.

Win those three games, and Memphis is in a really good position. The Tigers still control their own destiny — sort of.

What Memphis needs to do

That's simple: Win. It's virtually impossible for Memphis to make the title game if it loses any of the last three games.

Who is Memphis competing with?

Tulane, SMU and UTSA.

All three of those teams are undefeated in conference play. The easiest team to eliminate is SMU, because the Mustangs visit Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium on Nov. 18. Win that game, and the Tigers will be ahead of SMU by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker, and both teams will have one conference loss.

SMU won't play against either UTSA or Tulane, so there are no head-to-head scenarios involving those teams. UTSA and Tulane cannot both be undefeated in conference play because they play each other in the final week of the regular season.

UTSA plays at home against Rice and South Florida before finishing the season at Tulane.

Tulane hosts Tulsa, then plays at Florida Atlantic before returning home for the UTSA game.

For this next part, we're going to assume Memphis beats SMU. If the Tigers lose that game, they'll be eliminated.

Assuming they do: If UTSA and Tulane win their next two games, they'd both be undefeated heading into their final-week matchup. If UTSA were to beat Tulane, the Roadrunners would be the top seed and the only undefeated team in the conference. They would host the title game, and they'd do it against the Green Wave — who would get in because of the head-to-head tiebreak they own over Memphis. In that scenario, a 10-2 Memphis team would still miss out on the conference title game.

If Tulane wins out, the Green Wave would host the conference title game as the only team with a perfect conference record. It would then be Memphis, SMU and UTSA with one loss each.

In this scenario, SMU would be eliminated because of its loss to Memphis and because it does not play UTSA. Between Memphis and UTSA, it would go to College Football Playoff ranking (where neither team is likely to be ranked) and then to "selected computer rankings."

While it isn't clear exactly what rankings would be used, it's unlikely that UTSA would be ranked above Memphis. That's because the Roadrunners went 1-3 in non-conference play, including a loss to 3-6 Army. Meanwhile, the Tigers went 3-1 in non-conference play, including a loss to Missouri team that will probably be ranked at the end of the season.

So Memphis will probably get in if that scenario unfolds. But there's still a ways to go before then.

More: How Seth Henigan injury could impact rest of Memphis football season

What about the New Year's Six race?

For the last six seasons, the AAC champion has played in the New Year's Six bowl game reserved for a team from the Group of Five. The conference has historically been stronger than its Group of Five peers, but it was undoubtedly weakened this season when Houston, Cincinnati and Central Florida left for the Big 12.

Will the AAC champion get that spot this year? Again, it's complicated.

Army, which will join the AAC next year, did its future conference a favor last week when it knocked off Air Force, handing the Falcons their first loss and dealing their New Year's Six hopes a significant blow. Air Force had been ranked below Tulane in the initial College Football Playoff rankings, but it would have been difficult to deny an undefeated conference champion a spot in a marquee bowl game.

Aside from Air Force — which could still win out and take the Mountain West championship — there's also Liberty, which is undefeated at 9-0 with a 7-0 Conference USA record. The Flames play a weaker schedule than teams in the AAC and Mountain West, but could get the spot if they stay undefeated. James Madison is also undefeated, but is not eligible because the Dukes are still transitioning from FCS to FBS level.

All that's to say it's likely a one or two loss AAC champion will get the New Year's Six bowl spot reserved for the highest ranked Group of Five team. But there are plenty of ways that can go awry, and the outlook won't be clear until the final week of the season.

Reach sports writer Jonah Dylan at jonah.dylan@commercialappeal.com or on Twitter @thejonahdylan.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Can Memphis football make the AAC title game? Here are the scenarios.