Memphis basketball vs. Vanderbilt: Score prediction, scouting report

Penny Hardaway has been down this road before.

The Memphis basketball coach knows what it feels like to be let down, so he's not letting up with Vanderbilt (4-7) coming to FedExForum Saturday (3 p.m., CBS).

The 23rd-ranked Tigers (9-2) are riding high after beating No. 22 Virginia. It's their third straight win over a ranked opponent − a first in program history during the regular season − and their fourth consecutive win overall. Memphis has positioned itself favorably, sitting at No. 26 in the NCAA's all-important NET rankings as well as in KenPom's metrics-based pecking order.

Hardaway believes winning deserves to be celebrated. But not for long, or else it could get "really ugly for us."

"We can never lose sight at Memphis," said Hardaway. "Because, we know, if you let your guard down, you know, you drop. We know that."

Here are three things to think about ahead of Saturday's tip-off.

Whose minutes does Nae'Qwan Tomlin get?

Memphis has formulated a rotation that is high on synergy in recent weeks.

It runs about nine deep, but only five Tigers are averaging more than 20 minutes per game since the team snapped its two-game mini skid. And a sixth Tiger (Malcolm Dandridge) is averaging just a shade under 20 minutes a game.

But, soon, Memphis will add 6-foot-10 midseason transfer Nae'Qwan Tomlin to the mix. The Kansas State transfer may not command big minutes right away, considering he hasn't played in a game since March and has practiced in a team setting only a few times since August. Tomlin will need time to develop his conditioning.

But that may not take long. So, as his minutes increase, someone's will naturally have to decrease. Tomlin is a natural power forward, but his size gives him the ability to play some center while his athleticism and skill means he can play the three, too.

It's a good bet that it won't be just one Tiger whose minutes are affected by Tomlin's arrival. Ashton Hardaway, Jayden Hardaway, Nick Jourdain, Jaykwon Walton and Malcolm Dandridge might all see slightly diminished playing time to accommodate Tomlin.

The ultimate buy-in

Penny Hardaway assembled a team heavy on veterans, many of whom came pre-programmed with offense-first mentalities.

Sure, a few of them (Nick Jourdain, Jayhlon Young and David Jones) had shown a willingness to be the best two-way players they could be. But 11 games in, Hardaway seems to have complete buy-in across the board.

The Tigers rank 21st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are averaging 9.2 steals per game, led by Jones, whose steal percentage (3.9%) ranks 103rd among all players in NCAA Division I − all the while also averaging 20.8 points per game.

Vanderbilt scouting report

On paper, the Commodores don't pose much of a threat to Memphis.

Jerry Stackhouse's team has lost three in a row and six of its past seven games. Its best win of the season is a Quad 3 victory over UNC Greensboro more than a month ago.

From a numbers perspective, Vanderbilt isn't just struggling in one area here or another aspect there. The Commodores are one of the worst teams in the country in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot better than 40% beyond the arc. Their effective field goal percentage on offense (45.6%) ranks 315th.

Veterans Ezra Manjon and Tyrin Lawrence have played well in spots, but Vanderbilt's supporting cast is very thin.

Still, though, Hardaway isn't letting his guard down.

"Vandy is very capable," he said. "I've seen Jerry win some games on the road that most people didn't have them winning. We're going to prepare for them and be as serious about them as we've been about any team this year."

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Memphis vs. Vanderbilt score prediction

Memphis 83, Vanderbilt 67: The Commodores aren't slowing this train down.

Reach sports writer Jason Munz at jason.munz@commercialappeal.com or follow him @munzly on X, the social media app formerly known as Twitter.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Memphis basketball score prediction vs. Vanderbilt